29/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Doomben, Bernborough Handicap day

The Brisbane Summer Carnival continues this Saturday at Doomben where it is Bernborough Handicap Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.

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4 Ignite The Light (Bet Now: $2.90 FAT ODDS) clearly on top. Two runs back for Tony Gollan have been quite good. Just pipped on the peg first up by subsequent Saturday winner Auerbach before racing over 1200m here where he just went too quick in front and was beaten comfortably by Awesome Pluck, and that form has been ticked off. No real stars here, should lead and prove hard to run down.

1200m is short of his best but the trials of 3 Brains (Bet Now: $10.00 FAT ODDS) have been more than encouraging. Stablemate of Ignite The Light who is better suited over further but he seems to have come back in great order, the latest trial seeing him finish behind Tumultuous but was under a good hold and finished alongside Houtzen. Tricky draw, but the gap in the market between he and the stablemate appears too big.

9 Mewstone Rock (Bet Now: $11.00 FAT ODDS) is a handy daughter of Fastnet Rock that resumes for the Symons/Laxon stable at the Sunny Coast. This mare hasn’t raced since mid July over 1350m here when settling near last and finishing off strongly to run midfield behind the then in form galloper Pressway. Resumes without a trial but likes racing here and can sprint well fresh.

A strong 1350m is the query but on form, 4 Coral Bay (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) is clearly the one to beat. Ran in a Sunny Coast heat of this series over 1400m and it was a lovely steer fro D Browne to burst his way through the pack to nab Fomo near the peg. He seems to be a different/better horse this time in. A hard 1400m I’d definitely say no. I think 1350m at Doomben will be fine.

17 Dapper One (Bet Now: $16.00 FAT ODDS) is a Les Ross trained mare who has been around the mark of late without winning. She ran behind Akage last time at Ipswich last time back November 30 and was only beaten under a half length in a tight go. Run prior behind Fomo was good and before that she was only a couple of lengths off Femme Fireball, which clearly reads well for this.

9 Akage (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is a Brian Crowley trained mare who is in career best form at the moment. She has won her past two, firstly winning over 1350m at Ipswich before racing at 1400m on her home track at the Gold Coast and she found plenty late when challenged to score. Toughest test to date, but hard to knock a mare that’s in a winning frame of mind.

3 Tumultuous (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) looks to be ticking over really nicely for Chris Waller. Ran over 2000m here last time where he got well off the pace but finished off quite nicely late in the piece when fourth to Magnufighter. Think he’s got the upside to prove hard to beat but these staying races are always tricky to sort out with confidence given the even depth across the board.

2 Kiwia (Bet Now: $4.70 FAT ODDS) could easily blow these away if he’s right. Great winner of the Ballarat Cup two back before going to the Pakenham Cup where he was well fancied and on face value, he was disappointing, but did pull up with heat stress, so he was a forgive. His best is good enough to beat these and we know he’s good on the road. Just want to see what the market does.

2017 JJ Atkins winner 6 Capital Gain (Bet Now: $20.00 FAT ODDS) looks to be getting back to somewhere near his best. I didn’t think he was too bad last time in the Magnufighter race, sitting back and closing off okay without threatening. Getting fitter and getting out to more ground will suit him I’d suspect. Couldn’t back him to win, but wouldn’t totally shock me if he did.

Keen on 2 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $3.70 FAT ODDS) for Kris Lees. He hasn’t raced since Cup Day at Randwick where he looked all over a winner but had no answers for the finale produced by Marsupial. Been given a mini break, likes racing at Doomben and I thought his Wyong trial win was a lovely pipe opener for this assignment. Very explosive horse on the fresh side so he’ll do me.

13 Isaurian (Bet Now: $6.50 FAT ODDS) is a son of Exceed And Excel for James Cummings who comes here fresh. He hasn’t raced since November 17 when heavily backed and thanks to a ballsy ride from Avdulla, the four year old burst through and proved too good. Trialled at Randwick a couple of weeks ago and thought he went quite well to the eye behind Seaglass. Another very good horse when produced fresh.

1 Dothraki (Bet Now: $12.00 FAT ODDS) has to carry the weight but no denying he has class on his side. Resumes for Team Snowden after a mixed Spring prep, which was highlighted by a second up win down the Flemington straight in the Bobbie Lewis. Has run well at Doomben but comes here with just one soft 750m trial under the belt. Might need the run but does have class.

14 Just Zerene…(Bet Now: $1.65) how good is she? She’s the filly highlighted in the text flying about on social media, with the text saying that Tony McEvoy saying she’s better than Sunlight, which has prompted a plunge on her for the Magic Millions. Must win for her here in order to be in the field. Do you believe the hype? Yet to be seen in public but money speaks all languages.

1 Sun City (Bet Now: $9.00) needs to run top two and he’s guaranteed a start in the Magic Millions. He resumed in the Phelan Ready a fortnight ago here and he seemed to have his chance when second to The Odyssey. Should take good improvement from that and the stable finds J Mac to steer. I think Tony McEvoy will win the race. Just a matter of which one. Leaning the way of the filly, just.

4 Eleven Eleven (Bet Now: $15.00) is a few weeks between runs for the Greg Hickman stable since debuting over 1050m here in the Sizzling where he seemed quite new to the caper and battled away well in defeat when third to the speedy Betaima. That should bring him right on and the stable have had a decent opinion of the horse since day one. Can he live up to it?

11 Light Up The Room (Bet Now: $7.00) isn’t the best horse re ability here, but I think she’ll get run of the race stuff. Hasn’t raced since November 17 at this track/distance when lumping 59kg and not quite finishing it off when a narrow third to Plumaro. Meets that horse 4kg better here so should turn the tables and she gets the perfect gate to sit near the speed and have a head start on Outback Barbie.

6 Outback Barbie (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the clear pick of the locals when it comes to the Magic Millions Guineas. I thought her Mode Plate win was just fair but she proved she’s back to her best with a fast finishing second to stablemate and potential star Zoustyle. Up to 1350m is perfect for this filly and she can sit closer on speed if need be. One of the hardest to beat.

8 Granny Red Shoes (Bet Now: $20.00)is one I’ll keep an eye on. I was on her in the Zoustyle race from two weeks ago and I thought on face value she was just fair, but upon watching the replay a few times, I just think she was run off her legs early. Did make ground late nearer the inside. Extra 150m will be a tick for her. I think she’s crying out for a bigger track though.

Only bad luck will beat 4 Victorem (Bet Now: $1.75). Jenny Graham trains this high class four year old, who had his knockers prior to the Lough Neagh but once he drew the inside gate and the rain stayed away, he was a good thing and was ridden like that by Dale Smith, producing an absolute peach and the horse repaid the ride with a spank job. Should be repeating the dose.

6 Flow (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Street Cry five year old for James Cummings that is first up. He had a pretty solid Winter prep, highlighted by a win at Rosehill. Trialled up really well last week at Canterbury but comes here with just one trial instead of two, with two trials leading up to fresh last prep seeing him. Interesting runner but certainly has the quality to be around the mark.

3 Snippets Land (Bet Now: $15.00) certainly doesn’t have the ability to match it with these, but sometimes it’s not always ability that wins. He’s a beauty for Team Snowden and is rarely far off the action. He ran over 1400m at Rosehill last time and closed off alright late in the piece behind Firsthand. Been kept on ice and his recent trial behind Invinzabeel was encouraging.

It’s hard to get away from 9 Gaulois (Bet Now: $2.90). James Cummings trains this galloper, who was excellent in his first two runs from a break prior to running in the Villiers where he was far from disgraced behind Sky Boy. Back on firmer footing and fourth up, he should be hard fit, and this looks a considerable drop in depth. Really keen on his chances.

13 Kay Kay Boy (Bet Now: $7.00) was a heavily backed beaten fav last time in the Brisbane Handicap, but despite that, I think he got a huge pass mark in defeat. He and Prioritise went stupid in front. Clearly set up for those in behind. He beat Prioritise off quickly and stuck on to run a very game fifth while that horse finished tailed off last. All depends if that run has busted him or not.

7 Aqua Vite (Bet Now: $35.00) looks suited up to the mile. Great effort two back when beaten narrowly by Snitch before going to the Lough Neagh where he was outclassed but was okay behind Victorem. 1600m looks his go and he has a really good track/distance record. Not sure he can win, but I reckon he is an absolute must for exotics at a decent price.

Class to come to the fore via 1 Invincibella (Bet Now: $4.00) for Chris Waller. This mare had a very good Spring campaign, highlighted by wins in the Sheraco and Blazer. Heading towards the Magic Millions Mares race and defending her title. Trial was very good behind Alizee and she has run well in some good races at Doomben in the past. Looks the clear way to go.

12 Femme Fireball (Bet Now: $15.00) is flying for Rob Heathcoate. Won her first three runs for the prep before going to the Just Now where they crawled in front and given her racing pattern, she had no hope of winning so she did a great job to get as close as she did to Our Crown Mistress. With a more genuine tempo this time around, I think she’ll be dangerous late.

17 Manicure (Bet Now: $13.00) is a James Cummings trained mare who looks to be here with blacktype in mind. Had three runs during the Sydney Autumn Carnival and wasn’t beaten far in each race, which were high quality three year old events. Resumes with two trials under the belt, so she’s had the right grounding for a first up assault. Just want to see what the market does.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Victorem

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Gaulois

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 11 Light Up The Room

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 8, 11, 12

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 12, 17

$50 Investment= 250% of the dividend if successful

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