29/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, ATA Stakes day

The Perth Summer Carnival continues this Saturday where it is ATA Stakes Day, with the 2200m feature being a key lead up to the Perth Cup. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Keen on 1 Beethoven (Bet Now: $3.10). Fred Kersley trains this juvenile, who only had the one 400m trial leading up to his debut over 1000m here a fortnight ago where he was given a lovely steer by Lane and just got the win. I think he’ll come right on from that and of the first starters, nothing really stands out, so I’ll side with the race experience that Beethoven has.

5 Angel Jupiter (Bet Now: $5.00) is a daughter of Planet Five on debut for the Pearce camp. This girl trialled a couple of weeks back at Lark Hill over 950m and looked to move nicely. She led for most of the trip, was pushed out somewhat but responded when second to Is A Bombshell. Stable are having a good run at the moment, especially first up/debut. Market should be watched with her.

2 Bubaroochy (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Snippetson gelding for Stephen Miller that is having his first start. This gelding trialled at Lark Hill over 950m and didn’t have much room in the run but once clear he found the line well I thought when fourth to Is A Bombshell. I think he’ll improve with time but 1100m on debut looks okay and he should be strong at the end if the trial is any guide.

Keen to see if/how 4 Excise Free (Bet Now: $2.40) measures up. Michael Lane trains this filly, who has won her past two in brilliant fashion, leading throughout each time. Last run was down the Pinjarra straight and she absolutely bolted in, running really good time. Hopefully she can take a sit because I think leading all the way here will be a tough ask.

2 Kiss The Breeze (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented daughter of Star Witness for Adam Durrant that resumes. This girl had a five run Winter campaign at Belmont and while she didn’t win, she wasn’t far off and did produced some tidy efforts behind Fire And Rain, who is an above average speedster. Trial win at Lark Hill was good and she ran sharp time relative to the morning.

5 Olivia Knows (Bet Now: $27.00) took an absolute eternity to break the maiden tag but it finally came at Bunbury over 1100m last time, leading all the way. She ran along at a good clip and was there to be beaten but found late when challenged to score. Like her back to 1000m as she steps up in grade and is an honest filly. First four chance but couldn’t back her to win.

Have to give 5 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $9.50) another chance. Was really keen on her when she raced over the 1500m here three weeks ago and it was an ugly watch if you were on. Just got too far back, ridden for luck and got little to none in a very good performance from the back behind Lucky Roar. Hoping she gets the rub of the green, because she’s certainly up to beating these.

1 Vital Silver (Bet Now: $1.90) is a Team Pearce trained gelding who had trialled up well prior to resuming at this track/distance a fortnight ago where he got over rather comfortably from the tricky draw and from the home turn onwards, it was a rather painless watch if you were on. Can only see improvement from that and on form is clearly the horse to beat.

The rub of the green certainly hasn’t gone the way of 8 Truly Belong (Bet Now: $5.50) at her past couple. Went around as if it was a barrier trial two back behind Dam Ready before racing here a fortnight ago and again having no luck in the straight in a race won by Fine Scent. Think the 1400m will be perfect for her and if the breaks go her way, I’m sure she’ll be in the finish.

He’s got a life ban for me so I couldn’t back 5 Royal Command (Bet Now: $2.10) to win, but with process of elimination he’s the one to beat. He took an eternity to put a win on the board but it finally came a fortnight back at this track/distance when surging hard late from off the pace under Pike. Holds a nomination still for the Perth Cup but I’d suspect he won’t be going there. Still, the one to beat here for sure.

2 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $4.60) is an Adam Durrant trained four year old who is three weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where he had no friends in the market and it was right as he got back and worked home well but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Juicing Carrots. He’s a bit hit and miss but at his best, he’s up to these up to his eyeballs.

The race sort of drops away from the top two. Next best would be 1 Taxagano (Bet Now: $5.00), who comes through the Juicing Carrots race where he ran second and did a good job from off the pace to get as close as he did. I’ve always had him as a query at a tough 1800m, but that looks to be offset by the soft gate. I think with the right trip, he can win this, but the first two above look to have the race between them.

I think this is D-Day as to whether or not 2 Action (Bet Now: $1.90) is a contender or pretender when it comes to the Perth Cup. The key runners here come through the Towton Cup from three weeks ago, which was won by Cappo D’Oro, with that horse walking them in front and turning it into a 500m dash, something Action didn’t like given he was out the back. More genuine tempo here, he should get his chance.

5 Mississippi Delta (Bet Now: $3.70) is high up in markets for the Perth Cup and rightfully so given she’s been the form stayer of the second tier gallopers over the past couple of months. She ran second in the Towton Cup and did a good job I thought given the tempo of the race. Didn’t suit her but she rallied to run a narrow second. She can win if the tempo is more genuine.

6 Royal Star (Bet Now: $7.00) could be a sleeper for the Perth Cup. Ridden upside down two back in the Tatts Cup before going to the Towton where she was ridden cold, her normal pattern, and it was an ugly watch if you were on. Blocked for most of the straight when seemingly having something to offer. At her best, she’s certainly capable of beating these.

1 Nordic King (Bet Now: $2.80) for me. On the seven day back up for Adam Durrant after racing over the mile here last Saturday where he was held up a touch and took a while to get going which in the end probably cost him the defeat when a narrow second to Let’s Twist. Like him on the quick turnaround and that was his first run in three weeks so there should be room for improvement.

7 Trump This (Bet Now: $2.00) will be popular. Team Williams trains this progressive gelding, who ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago where he was a minute off them in the run but produced a brilliant finale to just miss out on the win when second to Royal Command. Drifts back from the wide gate here I’d assume, but hopefully can sit closer in the run.

12 Crystal Valley (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to be a mare in decent enough form for Colin Webster. She comes through the American Joy race from last Wednesday here where she just got a mile back in the run but finished off strongly to run a narrow third to the Bob Peters mare. That was her first run at the trip and it was a definite pass mark. Not sure she can win, but a must for exotics.

4 Candlelight Star (Bet Now: $3.60) is an Adam Durrant trained eight year old who seems to be racing in near career best form. Was really keen on him when he raced over this track/distance three weeks back and he never looked like getting beat from the home turn onwards, putting them away rather quickly. Hopefully he can go right on with it now.

7 River Dance (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Fenella Martin trained gelding who resumed without a trial in the Candlelight Star race from three weeks ago. He was a drifter in the market but landed on speed rather comfortably. Just think his condition gave way late when running sixth, beaten just under five lengths. Think he’ll take good improvement and is a definite threat at his best.

Not sure he can win but 11 Mad Brad (Bet Now: $9.00) is just reliable and runs an honest race every time he goes out. Five weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where he was on speed, looked to travel well and fought hard when a narrow third to Royal Statue. Like him back to 1200m and he seems to be a good horse when produced on the fresh side.

16 Western King (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Team Williams trained gelding who was a key drifter in betting when resuming here last Wednesday and I thought his effort was very good. Held up in the straight when having something to offer and when clear he finished off with real purpose late. Tough winner second up last prep and with the run under the belt, he should be better off and he’ll do me here in a tricky race.

14 Sariska (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented daughter of Super Easy for Vaughn Sigley who resumed over 1400m at Pinjarra and on face value, she was disappointing behind Scandal Maker but was found to have a slow recovery post race, so there was an excuse for her mediocre finale. She’s better than that, and the trials leading up to the resumption were sharp, so giving her another look.

6 Wild Fusion (Bet Now: $13.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but I think he’s earned a crack at metro level. He has won three on the bounce for Steve Wolfe on his home track at Albany where he has been on speed at his past two and he’s bolted in both runs. Both efforts have come at 1600m so that should leave him in good stead for this 1500m assignment.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Beethoven

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Action

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 5 Pearl Trade

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 5

Leg Two: 1, 7, 11, 12

Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 11

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 14, 16

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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