One of the best racedays in Melbourne for the Autumn is here-Blue Diamond Stakes Day. Nine races, including the $1 Million Group l William Hill Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) highlight what should be a fabulous day of racing.
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Race One (1:30pm) : William Hill Zeditave Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking fat with Fast Cash. (Best Odds: $6.00) He was a dominant winner first up at the Valley before going to the Manfred and perhaps was ridden upside down when seventh to Java, who franked the form by running well behind Dissident in the CF Orr. Hoping Vlad eases back from the gate and saves him for one run.
Big Danger: Galaxy Pegasus (Best Odds: $4.60) was a tad lucky to win on Cox Plate Day, then backed up seven days later and failed in the Coolmore Stud behind Brazen Beau. Recent jump outs at Flemington have been very encouraging and he did win brilliantly on debut.
Roughie: Armada (Best Odds: $4.40) is the knockout chance. He worked home okay on the outside fence in the Coolmore Stud behind Brazen Beau, then ran seven days later over 1400m and savaged the line late to be beaten only two lengths by Lord Aspen, an above average type. Recent jump outs and trials have been sharp, and Ollie being booked is a good lead.
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Race Two (2:07pm) : Premier Signs Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Myer Classic winner Bonaria (Best Odds: $4.50) went enormous in the Bellmaine when running second to Tycoon Tara, getting a fair way back before peeling out and working home very strongly. She should take great improvement from that, and again draws to get a sweet trip. Class will take her a long way towards victory.
Big Danger:I was pretty keen on Girl Guide (Best Odds: $4.50) in the Bellmaine, and after being given every chance by Williams, she found little in the run home and ran an ordinary seventh. Blinkers on First Time is an important gear change, and for her supporters sake, hopefully she can kick forward and hold the lead. She’ll take some beating if that eventuates.
Roughie: Choose (Best Odds: $9.00) deserves a crack at Stakes level after two strong wins over this distance at Flemington. She has looked in big trouble on a couple of occasions, but she loves a fight and just knows where the winning post is. She should get a soft trip from the gate and is a great outside chance.
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Race Three (2:40pm) : Polytrack Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: On potential, Bottle Of Smoke (Best Odds: $4.00) could be the best filly in the race. Her debut win back in September was sharp, she was spelled after, looked slick in a couple of jump outs and then went to Mornington first up and scored a very dominant win, running the fastest 1200m for the afternoon at that meeting in between three races. Looks to have so much upside and Mick Price doesn’t throw runners into the deep end unless he thinks they can hold their own.
Big Danger: Sabatini (Best Odds: $5.50) was given a peach steer by Nick Hall to win first up here in the Kevin Hayes, sitting behind the leader and hot favourite Royal Snitzel before getting clear 150m out and showing a sharp turn of foot to get the job done. Continues to be underrated yet continues to get the job done. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Fontein Ruby (Best Odds: $7.00) raced very fresh in the Kevin Hayes, pulling hard on speed and sitting three wide, but she stuck on very well in the straight to run a close up third. She should improve considerably off that, maps well here and was dominant when winning second up last time in.
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Race Four (3:15pm) : Race-Tech Australia Caulfield Autumn Classic 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Adelaide horses have had a pretty good run during the Carnival time in Melbourne, and I am tipping it will continue courtesy of the Tony McEvoy trained Alpine Eagle (Best Odds: $2.30). He booked his ticket to the East following an absolute spank job of his rivals at Morphettville a fortnight back, winning by five lengths and running just under a second quicker than the older horses who ran over the same distance 40 minutes later. Looks to have enormous upside and runs similar to another Adelaide galloper in Lord Aspen, who was very impressive in two runs during the Spring. Hard to beat here.
Big Danger: Firehouse Rock (Best Odds: $8.00) worked home very strongly in the Autumn Stakes a fortnight back over 1400m here, settling midfield and not really getting clear until about the 250m mark. He was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade given the race was dominated by those on speed. He did win over 1700m here during the Spring, then struggled beyond that distance, but he looks a much stronger horse now and is well suited here.
Roughie: Going to give Zahspeed (Best Odds: $21.00) a sneaky outside chance here. He hasn’t been seen since running a close second to Norman Rules at the Valley where he did a stack of work on speed, kicked clear on the turn and looked the winner, but the early effort told and he got the staggers late. He has since been freshened up, and he looked very sharp in a jump out win at Flemington last Friday. A must for exotics, and perhaps a little e/w investment.
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Race Five (3:55pm) : Italktravel Futurity Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks pretty simple here- Dissident (Best Odds: $1.70) just wins. He was given the run of the race in the Orr and despite wobbling on the turn he sprinted brilliantly over the concluding stages and put the race away very quickly. WFA Group l 1400m at Caulfield, third up…he ticks all the boxes. He’ll be short, but he’ll be winning.
Big Danger: Suavito (Best Odds: $14.00) resumes here for Nigel Blackiston. Interesting to see that she resumes in the Group l and not the softer option of the mares race, but Blackiston has said during the week that less weight on the mare under the WFA scale compared to handicap conditions of the mares would be more beneficial first up. She probably lacks the killer punch to win an Open Group l at WFA, but her jump outs have been very sharp and she is wound up enough to run a beauty fresh.
Roughie: Very interested to see how Guest Of Honour (Best Odds: $26.00) goes here. Formerly with Marco Botti and now with the low flying Hayes/Dabernig stable. He had two runs for Botti during the Spring for an eye catching ninth in the Toorak before injuring himself in the Cox Plate. Hasn’t won under a mile, but his jump out effort last Friday at Flemington was very sharp and his form in Europe does read pretty well. Keen to see the market moves with this bloke.
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Race Six (4:35pm) : Crown Golden Ale Peter Young Stakes 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Two of the last three winners of this race had their previous start in the Melbourne Cup, so that, based on his trial effort, I’m clearly putting Protectionist (Best Odds: $4.20) on top. His Melbourne Cup win was very high rating, and on face value, it was one of the most devastating wins in the history of the race that stops a nation. His Newcastle trial was sharp and he handled Caulfield beautifully when a close fourth in the Herbert Power in the Spring. Just looks the winner here.
Big Danger: The Orr was dominated by those on speed, but the clear best of the back markers was Spillway (Best Odds: $8.50) who worked home strongly against the pattern. Looks suited up to 1800m and ran an absolute ripper second up last time in when a close fourth to Dissident in the Makybe Diva. Hard to beat with the fitness edge.
Roughie: Real Love (Best Odds: $11.00) was another that wasn’t suited by the slow speed in the Orr, but her closing sectionals were one of the best in the race. Up to 1800m looks much more better, and her Perth Cup win was extraordinary two starts ago, so she should be a definite improver as she heads towards the Australian Cup.
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Race Seven (5:15pm) : William Hill Oakleigh Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Vain Queen (Best Odds: $6.50) on top. Produced a stunning win down the Flemington straight on Oaks Day when winning the Mumm. She was then spelled, and produced a brilliant jump out at Caulfield recently behind Lankan Rupee, and we know what he did in the Lightning. This mare was due to run in the Lightning, and she was well backed All In but didn’t accept. Fast run 1100m ridden off the speed should suit her perfectly here.
Big Danger: Earthquake (Best Odds: $5.50) gets the lovely weight pull as a three year old filly who is tuned right up for a first up Group l assignment after two slick trial wins at Cranbourne, and she was made a blacbooker from the Feb 9 trial, where she travelled very well on speed and drew clear late under no pressure. Unbeaten at Caulfield and flies fresh.
Roughie: Shamal Wind (Best Odds: $10.00) was given a peach ride by Dwayne Dunn to win the Adams Stakes first up on Australia Day. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive. Has been freshened up and is ready to go for this after a slick jump out win at Sandown last Tuesday. She ran a fair seventh to Lankan Rupee in this race last year, but she is going much better now.
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Race Eight (5:50pm) : William Hill Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Sampeah (Best Odds: $15.00). His Prelude run was unbelievable. He looked completely lost around Caulfield and was a clear last at the top of the straight, but he picked up and absolutely savaged the line to run third to Of The Brave. Sampeah is clearly the best colt in the race, and he represents the value ahead of Fontiton, so I’ll go with him.
Big Danger: Fontiton (Best Odds: $2.30) is the best filly in the race, perhaps the best horse. She was awesome in winning the Fillies Prelude, sitting off a strong speed, coming off the bit on the turn, but surged late and was very powerful through the line. The only negative I have with her is I go back to last year. Rubick had a hard run in the Prelude and failed in the big one. Nonetheless, she’ll be hard to beat.
Roughie: Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $12.00) went enormous on debut at Rosehill in the Widden when second to Fireworks after sitting three deep no cover. She was made a blackbooker then, and was made a blackbooker again after an impressive jump out win last Friday at Flemington. Lacks the race day experience, but certainly has the ability and scope to be a threat here.
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Race Nine (6:25pm) : Mypunter.com Mornington Cup Prelude 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting the Perth visitor Chester Road (Best Odds: $4.00) on top. He was pretty good I thought in the Carlyon Cup, settling worse than midfield and pulling a fraction. Coming into the straight he got badly held up and Craig Williams had nowhere to go until the 200m mark when getting clear and working home strongly for sixth. Up to 2000m suits and good to see Williams sticking. Hard to beat provided his racing manners improve.
Big Danger: Index Linked (Best Odds: $5.00) is a tricky horse to follow, but the pattern with him is that when he finds form, he holds and holds it well. His last start saw him flash home from the back to run a close up second to Phantom Brew. Meets that horse 2.5kg better off for a length defeat, draws gate one and Bossy sticks.
Roughie: Zadon (Best Odds: $17.00) has been very gritty at his past two outings, both resulting in narrow wins, including last week at Mornington when kicking back strongly to beat Alakris after that horse clearly headed him. That tough 2000m win should give him a serious chance here, especially with the weight drop.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Dissident
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Sampeah
VALUE: Race Nine Number 5 Chester Road
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 12, 13
Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 10, 16
Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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