28/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Birthday Stakes day

A nine race card has been assembled for Belmont this Saturday where it is Birthday Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

4 Validation (Bet Now: $2.20) looks just about the good thing on the program. The Harvey stable trains this mare, who resumed in a Northam maiden and was quite good from the back when third to Jenja, who has since won again in town, so that form has been ticked. Was really taken by her trial last Monday, leading throughout, winning by a space and smashing the clock. Really keen on her.

3 Bee Quick (Bet Now: $9.00) is a daughter of Smug resuming for the Dion Luciani stable. This girl has been nominated/accepted several times in recent weeks, looking to find the suitable kick off point. Interesting she resumes here, but the trials leading in have been good and the form around from last prep doesn’t read too bad. I think the market will be the best guide.

2 Looks Like Magic (Bet Now: $11.00) is yet to win after 12 outings, but her last couple have been at 1400m where she has been okay but she’s just been struggling to finish the race off after getting a decent run in transit, the latest run coming here just over two weeks ago when fourth, beaten 1.4L. Like her back to 1200m and while I doubt she wins, she’ll run well again.

The late market flucs will be a really good guide to this race given there are some nice types resuming are on debut. In the corner of 11 Sublime Image (Bet Now: $4.80) for Team Williams, who had two career outings to start her career in the Summer and ran well each time, both races turning out to be strong form references. Two trials have been good and looks ready to go fresh.

Fascinating runner is 10 Sentimental Gift (Bet Now: $2.20), mare for Team Williams that hasn’t raced in over 12 months since making her debut over this track/distance when running a close up second, beaten just under a length. The overall form out of that maiden has been okay, but the long time off between runs is the query. Two trials have been solid enough, but the market will tell you if she’s ready.

13 Baffling (Bet Now: $46.00) is a daughter of Blackfriars on debut for the Pearce camp. This girl has had three trials to tune up for her return, and she has steadily got better with each outing. She’s racing as if she’ll be a stayer, so I’m sure whatever she does here, she will improve on, but this race does look tricky on paper with a few runners having a lot of convictions, so I’m giving respect to the first starter.

In the corner of 3 Rio Del Mar (Bet Now: $4.20). Simon Miller trains this filly, who was somewhat unwanted in betting late when resuming at this track/distance but her finale from the back was excellent when second to Some Sort, who franked the form last Saturday. Pike takes the ride this time around and if she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take some beating here.

5 Niccovi (Bet Now: $4.40) is a daughter of Nicconi resuming for Simon Miller. This girl hasn’t raced since the Karrakatta where she was hooked back to near last from the wide gate and pretty much her fate was sealed then and there but her effort from the back was very good. Trialled well a couple of weeks ago behind Miss West Coast, who bolted up last Saturday, so that form reads well.

6 Red Can Man (Bet Now: $4.20) steps up to 1200m after breaking the maiden tag first up over 1000m at Northam last Thursday when sitting off the pace before being presented clear air and he really attacked the line hard late to get the win and smashed the clock in doing so. Looks to be good depth to this field, but he’ll sit off a good speed has the fitness under the belt.

2 Bunker Buster (Bet Now: $1.90) looks to be heading towards the Kalgoorlie Cup and this should bring him on nicely for that contest. Impressive win from the back to win over the mile two back before stepping up to 2000m where he had a struggled with Too Close The Sun but class came to the fore late and he edged clear, with that horse winning next time out to frank the form. Hard to beat.

1 At The Ready (Bet Now: $4.80) is three weeks between runs for Adam Durrant since racing over 2200m here where he got back to near last in the run but finished off with real purpose to get close to knocking off Spiritual Warrior in a tight go to the line. He’s going well this horse and another that could be heading down the Kalgoorlie Cup path so keen to see what he does.

9 Galaxy Blaze (Bet Now: $27.00) is racing for the third week in a row. Thought he was good two back here behind Bunker Buster in the race mentioned above before racing last Saturday where he got back and was never really in the hunt behind Too Close The Sun. Gets a senior jock aboard this time and while I doubt, he wins, off the run two back, he can fill a first four spot.

How can you go past 4 Cockney Crew? (Bet Now: $1.70) His first up win two weeks ago at this track/distance was just stunning, the way he went through his gears from the home turn and increased his margin with every stride, eventually winning by eight lengths. He looks to have come back in super order and could be a serious Perth Cup contender. Keen to see if he can repeat the dose.

5 Friar Fox (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented mare that had a couple of months off prior to resuming over this track/distance two weeks ago where she was very impressive in her race, finishing off strongly off a moderate tempo and producing some very sharp late splits to get the win. More depth here, but she’s got room for improvement and looks the key, perhaps only threat.

2 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $101.00) is heading towards the Perth Cup. He resumed last Saturday over 1400m, a trip clearly short of his best, but he got a definite pass mark, finding the line well enough behind a class animal in Cup Night. 1600m is still too short but he should get back and find the line again and with a bit of luck in running, he can fill a first four spot I think.

Been hot on 5 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $6.00) winning this prep and I’m not dropping off, yet. Excellent first up run behind Blackwood River before having second up syndrome. Then bounced back third up a fortnight back when a narrow second to a hard fit/in form Heavenly Affair. Fourth up, he now should be hard fit, ready to go, and this looks a very winnable race.

The overall form of Willie Pike the past couple of months has been suspect but he was the difference when it came to 8 King Of Judah (Bet Now: $6.00) bouncing back to winning form last time out at this track/distance and the punters agreed because he was well backed late and after getting back in the run, he finished over the top to get the job done. Can he go on with it?

11 Blue Horse (Bet Now: $9.00) is racing well at the moment for the Ashley Maley stable but can’t quite crack it for another win. He ran at this track/distance last Saturday where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but was overhauled late bu Master Pearl. Don’t think the depth is as strong this time around, so if he leads and gets a cheap furlong, he’ll be hard to run down.

This is D-Day for 2 Tamasa (Bet Now: $4.40) to see if he’s a contender or pretender. Thought he had every chance four weeks ago when fourth to surprise winner Mad Brad, but both runs back from a spell have been on wet ground and I think he’s a much better horse on top of the ground, which is what will happen here, he’s hard fit…surely he puts this lot away doesn’t he?

The best version of 5 Mantime (Bet Now: $10.00) would go close to beating these, but it’s been a long time since he has showed anything positive re form. Under the care of Neville Parker and did smash the clock when beating Achernar Star in a recent Lark Hill trial, breaking 56 for the 950m, which is low flying. If he brings his best, he would close to beating these.

6 More Aces (Bet Now: $12.00) hasn’t won in a while but his resumption was a definite pass. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago where he looked to have every chance but still found the line well enough after getting a box seat sit when third to Stageman. Has a handy enough second up record and if he can get on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll be dangerous.

Fitter and up to 1200m, I’m in the corner of 9 Stageman (Bet Now: $5.00). He had to lump 59.5kg when racing over the 1000m here two weeks ago when wide, doing work in the run, but he moved into the race with real purpose early on in the straight and despite wanting to lay in, he was too good his rivals. Gets really good weight relief, like him up in trip and does have race fitness on his side.

3 Achernar Star (Bet Now: $5.50) is resuming for Simon Miller. He had a three run Autumn, highlighted by two Stakes wins, taking out the Bunbury Stakes then the Grandstand Cup at Ascot, that last win being at 1500m, so is heading down the Railway path instead of Winterbottom? Time will tell, but his recent trial at Lark Hill suggested he’s ready to go first up.

1 Great Shot (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute beauty and always runs well fresh. The 2017 Railway winner hasn’t won a race since that famous all the way victory at Group l level but he’s run some rippers during that period and he does go well first up. That should be the case again if his trial at Lark Hill is any guide when on speed and going about his business quite nicely.

She’s been a bit costly at her past two but I’ll go the way again of 6 Bel My Pago (Bet Now: $6.00). Impressive first up winner over 1000m here before finishing runner up at her next two, the latest at this track/distance when beaten narrowly by Colourful Choice after getting a mile back in the run. If she can sit closer, perhaps a pair or two closer, she’ll take some holding out.

Third up from a break, 7 Unibro (Bet Now: $4.20) should just about be ready fitness wise. Just looked in need of the run first up behind Ice Maker before racing again at 1000m where he finished off strongly to run second to Mcedith, beaten a lip in a tight go. The big tick is up to 1200m and from the draw, he can sit closer in the run and be dangerous with upside to come.

3 Kennedy (Bet Now: $11.00) certainly has the ability to win this but in two runs back from a spell, he’s been a bit plain. In need of the run first up over 1000m behind Bel My Pago before getting back last time out and failing to come on behind Mcedith. Looks suited up to 1200 and on his Sydney form, he’d be winning this. Just a matter of translating that form to racing in Perth.

BEST BET: Race One Number 4 Validation

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Tamasa

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Bel My Pago

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 11

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review