28/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WA Oaks day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues on Saturday, headlined by the WA Oaks (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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In the corner off 9 Miss Margaux (Bet Now: $2.30), a Stephen Miller trained filly who was well backed at odds when debuting over 1400m at Bunbury. Showed good early toe to lead, comfortably, and on the turn looked all over a winner when Brad Parnham flicked her some rein. Just the last 50-75m she felt the pinch. Comes on from that and is hard to beat.

Wouldn’t be shocked at all if the first starter 3 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $3.60) took this out. Stephen Miller trains this son of Blackfriars, who has had just the one trial this prep to prepare, which came at Bunbury on Monday over 1000m. Given a good hitout when off the speed before cutting back inside and under hard riding was able to win. Market is the guide, but think he can run well.

2 Santander (Bet Now: $9.00) is a son of Snippetson for Colin Webster that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since July 3 at Belmont when down the track over 1000m but did make up ground. Very interesting he resumes at 1400m off one trial, somewhat a soft trial, but has a soft gate to take advantage of. Knockout chance I think.

2 Captain Burglar (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Safeguard gelding having his first start for Neville Parnham and despite a tricky gate, has to be respected. Won a 1000m trial last Monday at Belmont when near the speed and under a really good hold, he was far too good. If he can overcome the wide gate, think he goes close to winning.

3 Just A Pinch (Bet Now: $4.80) has been in the blackbook for a few months now off two very impressive trials and was really keen to see her debut. She debuted a couple of Wednesdays back here over 1000m when leading throughout and was impressive in doing so given she only had one soft trial this prep. Looks to have enormous upside and is hard to beat IMO.

7 The White Witch (Bet Now: $19.00) is a daughter of Bradbury’s Luck on debut for Sarah Evens. This filly has had two trials to prepare for start one, the latest coming l

2 Floyd (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the pony to bet on. Has had a string of placings recently but is clearly knocking on the door and I think he gets a great chance here. Once upon a time, he was a speedy squib who would struggle beyond 1000m, but two weeks ago over 1200m here, he charged home from the back and got close to knocking off Carocapo. 1400m is a query still, but has gate one, which is such a huge help for him.

6 Regal Counsel (Bet Now: $3.00) is worth another chance. Was keen on him running well at this track/distance last Saturday where he seemed to get every chance just off the speed and couldn’t quite get the job done when fourth to Red Can Man. That form does look to read well for this and has raced well on the back up previously.

Up to 1400m should suit the Neville Parnham trained 4 War God (Bet Now: $12.00), who resumed in the Carocapo race from two weeks back here over 1200m when back in the run and closing off okay without really threatening, beating just one runner home but was only beaten 1.4L. If he gets luck from the wide gate, he’s good enough to measure up.

Jump and run please 2 Mervyn (Bet Now: $5.50). I think his run here two weeks ago well and truly confirmed that at this level, 1200m is too far. Led, gave a decent kick, but couldn’t see it it out when fifth to Carocapo. Back to 1000m, he should find the front despite drawing a tricky gate and run along at a very good clip. Hard to run down and hopefully he holds on.

10 State Attorney (Bet Now: $6.50) has been given a freshen up for Adam Durrant, having not raced since Feb 22 over this track/distance when back and flashing late when a close up fourth to Shinju. He does seem a horse who races best with fresh legs and with the hot early tempo in front, he’ll get his chance to finish over the top.

9 M’Lady (Bet Now: $21.00) rises a bit in depth, but two big ticks for her are that she gets massive weight relief and I like her back to 1000m. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago and stuck to the task pretty gamely in defeat when fourth to Beauty Kanas. Think she’s going well and with a good run near the speed with Parnham to steer, she’s likeable.

7 Mr Kunafa (Bet Now: $6.50) is a query at 1800m, but hard to knock the way he’s going at the moment. Given a sweet steer by Whiting over the mile here a fortnight back, doing no work just off the speed before angling into clear air and finishing best to win well. Does no work from the gate so he’ll get every chance to see the trip out.

1 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $3.90) is looking for more ground I feel so up to 1800m should suit this mare. Ran over the mile two weeks ago when back in a truly run affair and couldn’t quite finish it off good enough but was still sound in defeat behind a ripper in Media Baron. She should eat up 1800m and has more upside than most.

The one that is a sneaky chance is 3 Bella’s Idol (Bet Now: $13.00). This mare hasn’t been too bad in three runs for the new stable, the last two coming at 1600m here and has been sound in defeat without really threatening. Has a really good record at 1800m and has a fair amount of upside. Just needs luck in the run from the draw.

Going with 4 Criminal Code (Bet Now: $8.00). Like a few here, comes through the JC Roberts from two weeks ago over 1800m here where he was once again tardy away and gave away a start but was sound in defeat behind Talladega. Big tick for me is the Blinkers going on to sharpen him right up and 2200m should be fine.

2 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $4.60) is heading in the right direction for Team Williams. Son of So You Think that won his maiden two back at Bunbury before contesting the JC Roberts and was quite good in defeat I thought behind Talladega. He was coming back to 1800m from 2200m last time so back up to 2200m, he’s a live threat.

7 Arcadia King (Bet Now: $17.00) is the very interesting runner. Has only placed in one of five career outings, and is doing plenty wrong, but didn’t think his run against the older horses last Wednesday here was too bad. Not sure he has got the ability to beat these, but is bred to be a good one and can’t ignore the Cerise and White.

5 Utgard Loki (Bet Now: $3.60) gets the nod. Justin Warwick has this gelding going really well at the moment. Ran over the mile here two weeks ago where he was wide and had to make a sustained run. Loomed to win but couldn’t finish it off and was bloused late by Mr Kunafa. Back to 1400m, hopefully gets three wide cover and launches late.

6 Kitgum (Bet Now: $4.00) is in career best form for Paul Roberts and is establishing himself as a metro class horse after doing his best work at the provincials. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight back when trying his guts out and looked home but the in form/unbeaten Sherpa Lass surged late and grabbed him. 1400m is no issue and is hard to beat.

2 Creative Hero (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big query here. Son of More Than Ready for Adam Durrant that resumes, having not raced since October 26 when last over 1500m behind Lorentinio. Two trials have been just okay, 1400m is short of his best, but he does have class and if he’s anywhere near right, he’ll go close.

She’s running out of chances, but this does look a perfect race for 8 Special Choice (Bet Now: $3.30). On the quick back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday in what was a fast run race and 600m out, she looked as if she would run last. But the good thing is that she picked up and was really good late. Was coming back in trip so back up to 1400m, I’ll be in her corner.

13 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $13.00) is racing in pretty good form at the moment for Adam Durrant but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where she had the soft trip behind the speed and was there to win, but didn’t finish it off when fourth to Beauty Kanas. I think the best way to ride her is cold and save her for a late launch so hopefully that can eventuate.

12 On The Turps (Bet Now: $23.00) is a David Harrison trained gelding that comes through the Beauty Kanas race from two weeks ago over 1200m here where he was back near last in the run and didn’t mind the way he finished his race off, beaten around 3.5L. He’s got an ordinary racing pattern, but if the tempo is strong, he’ll get his chance.

You’d think only bad luck sees 1 Tuscan Queen (Bet Now: $1.35) getting beat. Quality filly for Team Williams who seems to have really switched on since the Blinkers have been applied. Luckless in the 1000 Guineas before going to the Natasha when wide throughout but she was just far too good for them. Pike on, she looks a genuine $1.50 pop.

2 Pambella (Bet Now: $9.50) looks the clear second pick. Neville Parnham trained filly that comes through the Natasha where she was back in the run and again wanted to lay in under pressure but still kept coming and was game in defeat behind Tuscan Queen. If she does everything right, potentially turns the tables, but highly doubt it given how dominant Tuscan Queen was. Still runs well all the same.

5 Cambist (Bet Now: $10.00) has done little wrong this time in despite not winning. Another that comes through the Natasha where she was back near last in the run and really liked the way she finished her race off despite never really being a winning threat behind Tuscan Queen. Would love to see her sit a bit closer in the run. If that happens, she can cause problems at odds.

16 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $14.00) is worth an each way ticket here I feel. Alan Matthews trains this mare, who resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago and while I doubt she was going well enough to win, she was badly held up behind runners and didn’t get a proper chance to let down. She’s a bit of a nonny, but has a soft gate to use, sits off a good speed…each way she’ll do me.

What to do with 8 Smarty? (Bet Now: $19.00) Resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago and really, she was terrible behind King Blitz after seemingly getting every chance. Was found to be sore in a near foot due to the loss of a plate, so there were excuses. Freshened up, back to 1200m, think she has to be respected at her best.

1 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Simon Miller trained gelding that comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m last Saturday when doing work in the run from the wide gate and failed to come on behind Red Can Man. Think 1200m is his pet trip in life so like him back to this distance and if he can get on speed without doing too much work, he’s hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Tuscan Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Captain Burglar

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 16 Pearl Trade

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 3, 8, 12, 13

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10, 16

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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