28/2/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Launceston, Launceston Cup day

Ten races will be run and won at Launceston on Wednesday for Launceston Cup Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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6 Durazzo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a really nice horse. Barry Campbell trained gelding that is on debut off the back of three trial wins at Longford where each time he has been on speed and moved really well to win each time. Horror gate, but should press forward and with Craig Newitt to steer, he’s going to take beating I’d suggest.

1 Ada Way (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but he’s racing well. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Australia Day over 1400m here when on speed and tried hard but I just think 1400m found him out when fourth to Alpine Kate. Back to 1200m, maps ideally, hard fit…has had a few chances but is racing well and should be thereabouts.

3 Need A Giggle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in a similar boat to Ada Way. Racing well but has had a lot of chances to break the maiden tag. He ran over 1000m last Sunday at Hobart and was good from off the speed albeit he seemingly had his chance when second to Batchy Bullet. Like him up in trip and if the inside gate can be used to advantage, he’s dangerous for sure.

11 Van Scotia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the winner, all things being equal. This mare ran two weeks ago at Hamilton over 1400m when attempting to lead throughout and giving a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Enzo. Has had a few chances to win a maiden but gee she looks to have found a thin one here and the stable/jockey combo is flying.

2 Our Indulgence (Bet Now:  $SP.00) maps ideally and is knocking on the door. John Blacker trained gelding that ran over 1400m at Hobart just over a fortnight back where he was put into a lovely spot just off the speed and seemed to have every chance but couldn’t quite get there when third to Loud Mouth. Maps ideally, in well after the claim…a threat.

10 Siena Wolf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks an improving mare for Mark Ganderton. This mare debuted over 1200m here a few weeks back where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind La Folie Douce. Tricky gate once again, likely gets back again, but up to 1400m is a big tick and will be dangerous if she’s within range.

4 Pennine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me in what looks a two horse race. He has been racing in a purple patch of late with a couple of wins either side of a 1600m prep run. Latest win was over 2100m at Hobart and gee he was dominant in a spank job, producing a sustained run under Froggy. He remains on, he maps to do no work and he loves the track/distance.

3 Happy Clan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it for John Keys. Track/distance winner from three weeks ago, giving them a start and a beating, launching late from off the speed and was impressive the way he dashed when getting clear air. Maps to get a lovely run in transit and will be strong at the end.

7 Captain Morgan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He ran over 2100m at Hobart on Cup Day there where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind African Thunder. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and if he can settle closer, he can be a threat for sure.

11 Grey Whisper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat for John Blacker. This mare ran over 1100m at Hobart last time, her first run in over a month, and I thought she closed off her race really well in defeat when third to Etosha, beaten 1.4L. Better for the run under the belt, up to 1200m and she does bring with her solid Victorian form to say she can take out a race like this.

7 Intisar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This mare has raced over 1100m at Hobart in both runs back from a spell, needing the run fresh before a close up second on Hobart Cup Day. Froggy rode last time and he sticks with the mare so she has plenty in her corner to say she’s hard to beat here.

2 Verbano (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited up to 1200m for John Keys. She is another that has had two runs back from a spell, both over 1100m at Hobart. Solid enough fresh behind Alvarinho before dropping back to benchmark company when near the speed and tried her guts out but was no match for Tsunami Sam. Maps ideally and should just about be hard fit.

The weights say no to 11 Perola (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but I think she could be a jet. Two on the bounce, winning with a lot of quality two back to break the maiden tag before racing at Hobart in a strong 3YO race where she gave them a start and a beating in a brilliant display. If she brings that form to Launceston, away from Hobart, and they are cooking with gas, not just here, but maybe even on the mainland.

2 Dark Journey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive type for Jason Warren that is one of the key chances. His last couple of runs have come over 1200m at The Valley, winning the maiden impressively two back before a gutsy third to Catahoula after leading and being quite keen in the run. If he finds a spot on and can relax, he has the engine under the hood to measure up.

5 Thespian Waters (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. She comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Jan 5 at Hobart in the Tassie Guineas where she just didn’t run the mile out behind Wings Of Song. Fresh legs and back to 1200m, he will sit off a likely strong tempo and be one of the strongest late. Definite winning chance.

I think class gets 1 Bello Beau (Bet Now:  $SP.00) home. They tried him at 1400m in the Thomas Lyons last start but he simply didn’t run the trip out and was a bit on the plain side I thought behind Just A Tribute. Like him back to 1200m, he loves Launceston and if there is petrol left in the tank, I think he has a bit on these. But, I think market will be key.

9 Fake Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps up in grade/depth but he is racing really well. John Blacker trained gelding that has raced over this track/distance his past two, the latest being just over three weeks ago when working home strongly late from of the speed when second to Philosopher’s Stone. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

7 Vivilici (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver back to this level. This mare is a few weeks between runs since contesting the Mystic Journey where she got off the speed and seemed to get a decent enough run in transit but failed to come on behind Yellow Sam. Much better suited in this kind of event and can run an improved race at odds.

2 Keats (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is short enough but he does look a good thing to my eye. This guy comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Jan 6 when down the track at Geelong in the Coastal Classic behind Holymanz. He looks the leader and the drop in depth/grade…surely it’s enough to see him take this out. A good thing.

3 First Accused (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse and is suited up to the mile. He ran second in the Thomas Lyons, getting back off the speed and working home with real purpose late in the piece when second to Just A Tribute. He saves his best for Launceston and maps to stalk Keats so he’ll get every chance.

5 Swoop Dog (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. He ran in the Hobart Cup last time where he got back and wide in the run, making up minimal headway behind impressive winner Aurora’s Symphony. Back in trip sharply I find interesting but if Keats decides to jump and run, making it a test, this guy will be strong late.

6 Excelleration (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and I think he can go on with it. He had to go to Great Western for the Cup to get a kill and it indeed was a kill, winning by a space in what was more or less a barrier trial. He was down to run in the Hobart Cup but has been kept on ice with this race in mind.

1 Aurora’s Symphony (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is looking to create history by winning this race three years on the bounce. He has won the past two editions in superb fashion and looks right on track after bolting up in the Hobart Cup in a race where it was supposed to be a lead up for this, but the fact he won tells me he’s flying and despite the weight, he rates highly.

5 Ashy Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to be entertained for multiples. He comes through the Hobart Cup where he got into a dream spot near the speed and was there to threaten but he just didn’t have the finale to go with them late in the piece behind Aurora’s Symphony. Maps perfect again…doubt he wins but can fill a first four spot.

5 Jaguar Stone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best each way gamble across the program. She comes through the Mystic Journey at Hobart where she got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a winning threat, I really liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind Yellow Sam. Off that, 1400m is ideal, and if the inside gate can be used to advantage, she’ll be quite dangerous.

4 Yellow Sam (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Lindsey Smith. She got the win in the Mystic Journey, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display. That was her first run in several weeks and back from 1400m so back up to 1400m, better for the run under the belt, she’s going to take beating.

6 Sirene Stryker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a great second up record and fitter, up to 1400m, she is in with a shout. She resumed in the Mystic Journey where she got back in the run and made up some headway but was never a winning threat behind Yellow Sam, beaten just over a length. Better for the run, if she can be within range, she has the finale to win.

5 Loud Mouth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the get out. John Keys trained gelding that comes here off the back of a win on Hobart Cup Day where he sat on speed over 1400m and he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure and was strongest late in winning. Has good upside to come, good racing style and has run well at the track/distance previously. Rates highly.

1 Asva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Team Snowden, he now finds himself in Tassie with Glenn Stevenson. He showed good ability when racing in NSW and has found a nice race to kick off life in Tassie. Trial leading in was good and 1400m fresh signals intent, so watch the market.

3 Drinks At Vista (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if the inside gate can be used to advantage. She ran over this track/distance last time out where she got back in the run and spotted those in front too much head start but was pretty good late behind Eastcoast Miss. Can settle much closer if the inside gate is used and from there, she’s a key threat.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Keats

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 11 Van Scotia

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Jaguar Stone

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1, 6

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful.

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