Jumps racing is the focus at Sandown Lakeside on Saturday where we will see the running of the Australian Hurdle and Australian Steeplechase. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:30) : Clanbrooke Racing Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $3.70) goes on top for me here in a very good two year old race. The colt debuted at Ballarat where he attempted to lead all the way under Johnny Allen and he gave a good kick when asked for the effort but he was nabbed late by Star Search. Draws well here and Allen remains on. Safe way to go.
Big Danger: 12 Josephine Sea (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Smart Missile filly that had pretty good support when debuting last Wednesday at Sale and despite doing a bit wrong in the run, gee she was very good, sweeping past the Stakes performed Faith In Hand. Might only be a provincial win, but believe me it was very good.
Long Shot: 3 Sedition (Bet Now: $14.00) is a gelding that resumes for Godolphin and Darren Beadman. He debuted for the stable at Canterbury in February where he sat on speed and fought on well when third to Coruscate. Trialled up okay a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne and overall, this is a very winnable race.
Race Two (12:05) : Elaren Security Services Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Nikitas…(Bet Now: $5.50) never thought I’d put him on top again but here I am doing exactly that. Resumed for Darren Weir during the Warrnambool Carnival where he got a mile back in the run and it looked the same old same old but he charged home late to get the win on the board. I think he can go on with it…but I wouldn’t put my last dollar on him.
Big Danger: 15 Rillito (Bet Now: $4.80) goes in here. Talented mare for Godolphin who resumed on April 5 at Warwick Farm and closed off well to just miss out on picking up Sweet Serendipity, who franked the form by winning a Stakes race shortly after. Two trials since have been impressive and she does seem to race best on the fresh side.
Long Shot: 2 Sullivan Bay (Bet Now: $11.00) is a pretty good mare for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She won well three back on Mornington Cup Day before two efforts in SA where she was far from disgraced against some quality types. Back to 1200m is perfect, she gets the 3kg claim and maps to lead comfortably.
Race Three (12:45) : The Australian Steeplechase 3400m:
Back Me: 2 Zed Em (Bet Now: $2.80) is a star steeplechaser who looks one of the leading contenders here. He has been outstanding in recent times, the latest coming in the Brierly where he dominated things from the front end and gave nothing a look in. He loves to roll along on speed and do his own thing, and he is a very clean jumper.
Big Danger: 1 Wells (Bet Now: $7.00) is a star jumper who is very capable on the flat with his flat speed so he goes on top for me here. Ran second in this race last year and looks a much better horse 12 months. He ran behind De Little Engine over 2800m at Flemington last time out and stuck on well for a horse looking for steeples, and that form has been franked. 3400m will be suitable for him and is a definite leading chance.
Long Shot: 5 Lucky Tonight (Bet Now: $15.00)is a classy jumper from NZ who was too sharp for them two back at Pakenham before going to the Grand Annual at the Bool where he really struggled on the bottomless track and perhaps at the 5500m behind Regina Coeli. Back in trip looks perfect and you can never discount Lucky Tonight in a jumps race.
Race Four (13:25) : The Australian Hurdle 3400m:
Back Me: 2 Renew (Bet Now: $2.10) for me in what could be a potential cracking edition of the Australian Hurdle. He was such an impressive winner of the Galleywood before racing in the Andrew Ramsden last Saturday where he just lacked the flat speed to go with some nice types, finishing midfield behind De Little Engine. Back over the jumps now, he should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 1 Arch Fire (Bet Now: $6.50) proved far too classy for his rivals two back over the jumps at Pakenham before going to the Galleywood where he looked to travel well throughout and jumped cleanly until around the second/third last jump where he wasn’t clean and that cost him momentum badly. He can turn the tables, but does need to jump better.
Long Shot: 3 Urban Explorer (Bet Now: $7.50) is the interesting runner here. Flopped badly behind Angelology in the Classic Hurdle at Oakbank before going to the Galleywood where he ran a much improved and was good to the line late behind Renew. Then went to Sale last week over 2200m where he showed lovely change up speed and proved too good. That should top him off nicely for this.
Race Five (14:05) : Chandler Macleod Handicap (90) 2400m:
Back Me: 6 Goathland (Bet Now: $1.95) has been given a month freshen up since resuming over 2000m at Caulfield where he sat near the speed and battled away strongly when running fifth to Odeon. Very good second up record and up to 2400m on a big track looks perfect, and he gets the claim for Jordan Childs.
Big Danger: 8 Grand Dreamer (Bet Now: $4.80) gave them a galloping lesson two back over the Randwick mile under McEvoy. Trialled well at Cranbourne after before going to Caulfield where he got back and was never a hope but finished off okay late behind Hursley, who ran okay with excuses last week. Up to 2400m looks ideal and he should be hard fit.
Long Shot: 9 Great Glen (Bet Now: $5.50) returns to Victoria after getting the win on the board at Hawkesbury before going to the Scone Carnival where he went up big time in weights and that probably brought about his demise behind Lautaro. Up in trip does suit and he is back down in the weights. Safe way to go for mine.
Race Six (14:44) : Ladbrokes Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 10 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $1.95) is a very exciting horse for Darren Weir and Australian Bloodstock. Resumed over 1400m at Warrnambool and did a huge job in defeat given he didn’t look entirely happy on the heavy track and lost ground on the turn but picked up and was good late. 1600m at this big track second up looks an ideal recipe for success.
Big Danger: 5 Onpicalo (Bet Now: $6.00) is a tough, tough galloper for the Mick Price yard who landed some good bets when racing over the mile at Caulfield last time out where he toughed it out very strongly on speed and kicked hard to win. Senior rider jumps on now and maps well once again. Leading contender.
Long Shot: 1 Killarney Kid (Bet Now: $14.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming behind Onpicalo but despite his SP, I thought he ran a beauty given he made up a stack of ground from the back in a race that didn’t quite suit him. He probably needs another run under the belt and extra trip, but he has class/quality.
Race Seven (15:24) : Le Pine Funerals Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Pedrena (Bet Now: $3.20) landed some very good bets when racing over 1400m at Caulfield last start, and really the win was outstanding. She was a month between runs and at 1400m, but she chased hard and beat a good one in Fragonard. With that run under the belt, she should be better off here and rates highly.
Big Danger: 4 Lady Lee (Bet Now: $12.00) is a progressive filly for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who looks a leading contender here. Ran over 1400m on the Hillside course a tick over two weeks back against the mares where she chased hard to run fourth to Four Sisters. Looks ready to tackle the mile and is back to her own age/sex.
Long Shot: 10 Cuban Belle (Bet Now: $101.00) could provide some value here as a knockout hope. Ran over 1500m on her home track at Mornington last start where she was given a lovely on speed steer by Ben Thompson and kicked strongly to score a narrow but impressive victory. Up to the mile suits and I think she will be better when she has a bunny to chase.
Race Eight (16:04) : Samson Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Widgee Turf (Bet Now: $2.60) goes on top for me here. resumed at Caulfield and worked home okay late behind Wise Hero before backing up seven days later at Flemington over 1400m when an eye catching closer behind Zamzam. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and he looks the one.
Big Danger: 1 Zamzam (Bet Now: $4.40) is a well performed filly for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who was given a lovely ride near the speed by Nolen to break a run of outs last start over 1400m at Flemington. Looks well in at the weights after the claim for Jake Bayliss and with the 1400m run under the belt, he should be better off.
Long Shot: 8 Barbie’s Boy (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented type that was excellent when resuming on the Hillside course where he got a mile back in the run but finished off with real purpose to run fourth to Chippenham. Suited up in trip and keep in mind he did run in a Caulfield Guineas, so we know he has the quality.
Race Nine (16:40) : Le Pine Funerals Plate (84) 1400m:
Big Danger: 8 Noela’s Choice (Bet Now: $17.00) represents value for me here. Resumed for Darren Weir in the Wangoom during the Warrnambool Carnival where she was out the back and looked a bit disinterested but picked up the bit and worked home out wide with real purpose. 1400m looks ideal and remains down in the weights.
Back Me: 14 Data Point (Bet Now: $4.00) is a very good galloper for Mick Kent but the theory was that he was a bit of a non winner. That could be a reason why Mick Kent went to the provincials first up at Pakenham for the easy kill and a confidence boost, which is what he got, aided by a lovely ride by Nolen. Always promised a fair bit. He can potentially fulfill it now.
Long Shot: 12 Stylish Miss (Bet Now: $26.00) is a good mare for the Darren Weir camp but she has drawn a horror gate. She ran over 1400m during the Carnival where she was ridden a touch upside down but still proved too good for them. Better ridden with a sit, which is what should eventuate from the gate here. Definite chance if she is close enough on the turn.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Plein Ciel
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Renew
VALUE: Race Nine Number 8 Noela’s Choice
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 12, 14, 16
$50 Investment= 8.68% of the dividend if successful
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