The Melbourne Autumn Carnival wraps up this Friday at Moonee Valley with a bumper card of racing, highlighted by the $400,000 Group l Brown Baldwin William Reid Stakes (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (6:45pm) : Ascend Sales Handicap (84) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Strong race to kick off the program. Really liked the win of Celeritas (Best Odds: $4.50) over this track/distance a couple of weeks back, charging home from off the speed and finishing best. She’s a handy mare that once she finds form, she does hold it, so I’m happy with her in the first.
Big Danger: Double Dee (Best Odds: $10.00) was unwanted in betting first up on Adelaide Cup Day at Morphettville, and after sitting wide throughout, she still surged late to just miss. Her two trials leading up to that were solid, and with the first up run under the belt, she should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Pathways (Best Odds: $10.00) scored a strong win first up at Sale, beating a handy type in Sunday Escape. Pathways then raced here last Friday night, and surged late to beat the unbeaten Tuscan Sling in the last stride. Gate one, Boss sticks, in form, hard to hold out IMO.
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Race Two (7:15pm) : Simpson Construction Handicap (78) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Reldas (Best Odds: $3.00) pulled up mildly lame after his last start failure here behind Taddei Tondo. He hasn’t done much in two runs back from a little break, but during the Summer, especially here, he was near unbeatable. If he brings that form here, he wins, but you’d have to think this is D-Day, especially with Nick Hall back in the saddle.
Big Danger: Running Bull (Best Odds: $3.60) contested a handy race at Morphettville on Adelaide Cup Day, and despite sitting wide with cover, he did look home, but was grabbed right on the line by an above average type in Northern Zhar. Drawn awkwardly here, but Ollie will more than likely push forward, and if he can get over, he’ll be hard to beat.
Roughie: Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $7.00) didn’t pull up 100% after his first up failure at Randwick behind Darciwood. He was also an alarming drifter in betting, so I’d want to see a market lead before backing him with confidence, but on his best form, he is a definite chance here.
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Race Three (7:45pm) : 1PRINT Tour Of Victoria Middle Distance Final (78) 2040m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in the South Australian mare Letmedowngently (Best Odds: $8.00). She strung together three wins on the trot before racing on her home track at Naracoorte and just failing to hold on with 59kg, being grabbed in the last hop. She gets weight relief here, drawn gate one, and will be strong late. Great each-way bet IMO.
Big Danger: Fiesty Belle (Best Odds: $4.80) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and ran second to the in form mare Special Miss, who was ridden a treat by Jake Bayliss. She will carry 2kg under the minimum with the claim for Mick Dee, drawn to get a soft trip and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Calibrate (Best Odds: $11.00) got a long way back in the run last time out at Ballarat and worked home well late when fourth to in form galloper Melodramatic. Calibrate did carry 59kg that afternoon, and now she gets down to 55kg and strike a very winnable race, plus she gets the services of Craig Williams.
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Race Four (8:15pm) : Schweppes Alexandra Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really surprised that $14 is on offer for Fontein Ruby (Best Odds: $4.00). Forget she went around in the Australian Guineas (1600m) behind Wandjina. She just pulled her head off and weakened badly out of it. She should press forward from the wide gate and Zahra gets back aboard. At the price, I am happy with her.
Big Danger: Wawail (Best Odds: $2.90) toughed it out very strongly to get the job done in the Kewney Stakes (1400m), sitting off the speed and going to the line strongest in a close finish. Little query on her running a mile, but she is the in form filly in the event, and she won’t be too far away from the gate.
Roughie: Bahamas (Best Odds: $21.00) bashed up an even maiden field last time out at Werribee, sitting on speed and finishing off best under the urgings of Ollie, who has stuck with her, which is a good lead. Rises in grade, but gate one, should see her be somewhere near the finish with some upside.
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Race Five (8:45pm) : Jeep 55 Second Challenge Heat 16 955m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Minaj (Best Odds: $8.00) on top in a classy heat of this event. She was pretty ordinary during the Spring, but gee she has looked sharp in two jump outs at Flemington and Werribee respectively. In the last jump out, which was last Friday, she settled off the speed and worked to the line strongly. Doubt she’ll lead these, but with a nice sit off the speed, she can win this.
Big Danger: Putting Platelet (Best Odds: $7.50) as the main threat. She had three runs during the Spring and ran well at a high level, including the Manikato and Darley Classic. Loves the Valley, flies fresh and should get a gun run just off the speed, especially with the claim for Dylan Dunn.
Roughie: They will go crazy in front, so the swoopers will sure to be somewhere in the money, and one of those is General Truce (Best Odds: $34.00), who didn’t run to his best first up in the Bob Hoysted, but he does run very well here, and will go around at great odds.
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Race Six (9:15pm) : William Hill Sunline Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $9.00) and Noble Protector. It’s very easy to tip a $1.55 chance, so I’ll go for the value, which clearly lies with Girl In Flight, who was completely luckless first up in the Tressady at Flemington behind Madam Gangster, who goes around at Rosehill as a leading contender. She ran third in the Alexandra twelve months ago and appears to be going far better.
Big Danger: Noble Protector (Best Odds: $1.65) could not have been more impressive first up at Flemington, settling just off the speed before letting down with a powerful finish to absolutely spank her rivals. She is a deserved $1.55 favourite, but I prefer to back value each way.
Roughie: Marianne (Best Odds: $9.00) did beat Girl In Flight and Group l winner Suavito in the Alexandra last year, so she is capable and has an outside upset chance of winning. Form in Sydney had been terrible, but she bounced back to form with a second to Noble Protector. Can’t turn the tables IMO, but can definitely fill a place again.
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Race Seven (9:45pm) : William Reid Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting the classy mare Vain Queen (Best Odds: $7.50) on top. She had trialled brilliantly behind Lankan Rupee before resuming in the Oakleigh Plate (1200m). She was very unlucky in the straight, and not that she probably would have won, but she definitely should have run a place had she got a clear run throughout. Her lone start at the Valley saw her score a dominant win, she appears in flying form, will be suited by a hot tempo and she is a second up winner, plus she sizzled in work on the track on Monday.
Big Danger: Gary Portelli is a smart trainer, and he has probably realised that Rebel Dane (Best Odds: $6.00) is just a length or so off the likes of Terravista and Chautauqua, so he has specifically targeted the William Reid first up. He is a first up specialist, and he did look very sharp in a trial win recently on his home track at Warwick Farm. Just needs a little bit of luck, but his class will take him a long way towards victory.
Roughie: He might not be the best horse in the race, but given his amazing record at the track, It Is Written (Best Odds: $31.00) does come into calculations as a place chance. He also ran in the Oakleigh Plate and ran a little ripper when seventh to Shamal Wind, beaten just over four lengths. As I said, he isn’t the best horse in the race, but given he handles the track better than any other horse in Australia, he deserves a spot in exotics.
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Race Eight (10:15pm) : Jeep Plate 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen on Nordic Empire (Best Odds: $4.20). Brilliant first up win here in a 55 second challenge heat before going to the Bob Hoysted and seemingly not handling the straight course. Back to a bending track and back to a track he has won that, with Nick Hall riding, should see him go very close to winning.
Big Danger: Afleet Esprit (Best Odds: $4.00) has been just fair in two runs back from a very successful Spring. Her third to Sino Eagle down the Flemington straight was okay without being great, but with her tidy record at the track, and a slight drop in depth, she can bounce back to winning form.
Roughie: Nicoscene (Best Odds: $6.00) looked very sharp in a recent jump out at Flemington before getting the job done over this track/distance, beating home a gallant Berlutti. He looks to have really found his best form this campaign, and probably would be on top had it not been for the horror gate.
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BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Reldas
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Vain Queen
VALUE: Race Six Number 3 Girl In Flight
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 8, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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