27/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Bletchingly Stakes day

Group lll racing headlines a nine race card at Caulfield this Saturday as the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) brings together some decent sprinters, headlined by Sesar. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

1 Can’t Be Done (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is a son of All Too Hard for the Danny O’Brien camp who looks as if will be suited at 1400m. He’s had three runs at 1200m now, winning impressively two back at Sandown before racing here when on speed and fighting on strongly to run second to Star Surprise, beaten just under a length and far from disgraced in defeat. He’s going really well and don’t see the trip being an issue.

7 Spirit Medium (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) had been building to a win for James Cummings and that win came last time out at Bendigo over 1300m, helped by a lovely on speed steer from Willow, who controlled things beautifully outside the speed and when clicked, the filly showed nice change up speed and was too good for her rivals. Like her up to 1400m and is a key threat.

8 Parmie (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained filly who broke her maiden status over 1400m at Sandown last time out when wide, doing work in the run, and was there to be beaten, but found plenty late and kicked strongly under Yendall to win. Tricky draw and a bit more depth to this field, but you’d like to think that win would have done her confidence the world of good.

Bit of a tricky race this, but going the way of 2 Jorda (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) for James Cummings. She resumed in the Sprint Series Final at Flemington where she got back in a slowly run race and couldn’t really come on at all behind Malibu Style, who was strong in the Monash seven days later, so the form reads well. Gate one, back on a bending track, back to mares grade…well placed.

Back to Mares grade, 1 Miss Norway (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) should take some beating. She ran in the Monash two weeks ago where she was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the best place to be I think and being at WFA, she needed things to go her way and it didn’t. I thought she was far from disgraced, so back to Mares grade with weight relief, I can see her running a very positive race.

9 Abyssinian (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting one. Enver Jusufovic trains this mare, who resumed over 1000m at Sandown around a month ago where she was solid in betting but ran a shocker behind Deep Euphoria. Putting that down to the testing track and the fact she cast both front plates. Blinkers go on the first time, Mick Dee takes the ride, firmer footing…knockout chance for sure IMO.

Gee 5 Royal Order (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat here. Mick Kent has got his bloke flying I think. Loved the way he attacked the line to win first up at Bendigo before contesting the Winter Championship Final where he was outstanding in defeat from the back when fourth to Reykjavik. Depth looks nowhere near as strong this time around and third up, he should have upside left.

11 Ballet Master (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is racing really well at the moment for the Hyland stable but he just can’t quite crack it for a win. Was held up at times in the Special Diva race from two weeks back here but he was out in time to run the mare down and couldn’t. Was coming back in trip from the mile that day so back up to 1600m, he looks one of the leading chances.

2 Desert Path (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller stayer resuming. His opening Australian prep in the Autumn was quite good, with a couple of unlucky runs in there, but clearly showed decent talent to perhaps be a horse that could measure up in those provincial cups in NSW. Recent jumpout was solid enough. He’ll likely drift back to last from the wide gate and finish off strong.

1 Sopressa (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) is going really well for the Maher/Eustace stable but she’s just struggling to put another win on the board. She ran in the Grafton Cup last time out where I thought McGillivray gave the mare a peach ride and she was there to win, but just found Sacred Day too good, just, with Ben Looker producing a 12/10 on the kiwi stayer to win. Bit easier here I think and has class.

Process of elimination leaves me with 3 Fanciful Toff (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) as the main/only threat to Sopressa but I can’t believe how short he is. Market said he was legless at Randwick last time and it was spot on, beaten before the turn, but did pull up 1/5 lame. He comes through mainly provincial class form, and is facing a stablemate who has blacktype form. Can’t work out why he is just about favourite. His best sees him run well, but can’t see him beating Sopressa.

7 Bocain (Bet Now: $101.00 TOP ODDS) is a definite stayer for Kym Davison who lacks the class of some of these, but he will have no trouble with the 2400m and draws to do no work in the run. Ran over 2500m at Wagga last time where he was back in the run on testing ground and did make up some headway but gave away too much head start when fifth to Baby Jack. One for multiples.

Happy to butter up on the Symon Wilde trained 4 American In Paris (Bet Now: $7.00). This three year old comes through the Mahogany Final from three weeks ago at Flemington where, for the most part, Willow rode the perfect race. Just think if there was one negative for the ride is that he got to the front a tad early, being left a sitting shot for those behind, and that’s how it panned out. He’s going well and run well here two runs prior to last.

Really interesting runner is 3 Ripcord (Bet Now: $4.80), a former kiwi having start two in Australia for the Patrick Payne stable. Made his Australian debut over 2200m on the Pakenham Synthetic on Sunday and landed some good bets, getting into $5.50 after opening $6.50 and he was really impressive, beating up the older horses. Looks a good prospect so keen to see how he goes here.

1 Not A Single Cent (Bet Now: $8.00) is the class runner of the field and should take some beating. He won the Mahogany Final at Flemington three weeks back and it was mainly thanks to an absolute peach of a steer from Ben Melham, who waited patiently to let the horse down and just made all the right moves at the right time. Nearly should have won two back with 61kg, so don’t see the weight being an issue.

1 Turn The Tide (Bet Now: $5.50) is a So You Think gelding for Cindy Alderson who landed some decent bets at odds when winning over 1400m here two weeks ago, sitting off the speed before Dwayne Dunn got him clear air and I liked the way he knuckled down when asked to get the win. On breeding, he should eat up the mile and has to be regarded as a leading chance.

After a string of placings, 4 Taksu (Bet Now: $6.50) is starting to put it together, winning his past two. Gave them a spanking to win his maiden at Donald before racing at Cranbourne last Wednesday where he looked in a bit of trouble on the turn but surged late under Meech to get the win narrowly but impressively. Harder here, clearly, but confident this gelding can measure up.

The best version of 2 Really Swish (Bet Now: $27.00) is certainly good enough to beat these. This Team Corstens trained runner ran on the Ballarat Synthetic last time and in a rarity, I think Clayton Douglas made a bad move in pushing the button early on the three year old. Looked the winner but he was empty late and nabbed near the peg by surprise winner Frankiedee. 1600m is no issue, and with a more conservative steer, he can be dangerous.

5 Pickup The Pieces (Bet Now: $3.30) is a daughter of Bel Esprit resuming for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. This girl hasn’t raced since the Bendigo Guineas in the Autumn where she raced like a tired horse when down the track behind Mystery Love. I think early on in the prep is the best time to find her and her recent Flemington jumpout when beating Sesar (without blinkers) was strong.

6 Street Icon (Bet Now: $3.80) has to be one of the leading chances here. The Maher/Eustace stable trains this filly, who resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago and she tried her guts out on speed, looking the winner, but race fitness of Gododdin kicked in late and just edged her out in a tight go to the line. Has the run under the belt now, so should be stronger at the end.

1 Tell Me (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Team Hawkes trained filly who comes through the Voila race from a few weeks ago at Caulfield and I think you could easily make a case that she should have fought the finish out, but just had no luck in the straight when having plenty up the sleeve. Hopefully she gets clear air from the outset this time around so she gets her chance to show what’s under the hood.

I’m really keen on the three year old 6 Sesar (Bet Now: $1.85). Team Hawkes are the best in the business at putting together a good CV for a stallion prospect and they have Sesar, who had his first run for the stable over 1200m at Randwick five weeks and he produced the win of the meeting, sitting off the sped before getting splits between runners and dashing through the mud like a good horse. Now in Melbourne, he jumped out at Flemington last Friday and it was the best he trialled without blinkers. He’s flying and I think he’ll be winning.

2 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for Mick Bell who gives his all and will no doubt do the same here, especially with conditions to suit. He comes through the Monash from two weeks ago when on speed and giving a really good kick when asked for the effort by Oak Door nabbed him late. Looks to lead this field and I like him back up to 1200m. Only query is that Sesar beat him comfortably at Randwick.

7 Miss Vixen (Bet Now: $12.00) deserves another crack at some blacktype. She was six weeks between runs when racing over this track/distance a fortnight ago when given such a lovely patient steer by Luke Currie and that patience won the race because the mare only had a short, sharp burst, before levelling out late. Does no work from the gate and Williams has ridden the mare well in the past.

5 Romancer (Bet Now: $3.70) looks to be going really well for the Grahame Begg team. Tough on speed winner at Flemington two back over 1400m before going to the Winter Championship Final where he looked to get every chance and was good in defeat. Just no match for the brilliant finale that Reykjavik produced. Hard fit now is Romancer, so that should hold him in good stead.

It was surprising to see support for 6 Sylpheed (Bet Now: $9.00) first up over 1200m here two weeks ago against the mares, but the long priced move at odds almost came off. She had to settle for a close up fifth to Miss Vixen. Up to 1400m I like, she gets really good weight relief and you’d like to think she has plenty of room for improvement. One of the key chances here I think.

4 Ozi Choice (Bet Now: $34.00) is a shadow of his former self, where he was ultra competitive at blacktype level. The track was just too sticky for him two weeks ago here at this track/distance and he struggled late when last behind surprise winner Travimyfriend. A firmer track would really help his chances and I think his best chance of winning will be if he leads and rolls.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Sesar

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Royal Order

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 2 Jorda

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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