27/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

An eight race card has been assembled for Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Wasn’t 100% sure that 5 Excellent Dream (Bet Now: $3.60) would race but he’s a confirmed starter and I’m on. He was a standout at the Lark Hill trials last Monday, sitting on speed over the 950m before taking the lead under no real pressure and the change up speed was very sharp in winning the trial in fast time for the morning. Looks a good prospect and am keen on him.

11 Special Choice (Bet Now: $2.35) is a Redoute’s Choice filly on debut for Team Williams. This girl has had just the one trial this prep in readiness for start one, which came at Lark Hill last Monday when winning over 950m in solid enough time under Jade McNaught, letting down strongly from off the pace. Overall, doesn’t look to be the strongest juvenile race going around, so a first starter winning wouldn’t surprise and she looks the pick of the unraced.

7 Excelestial (Bet Now: $11.00) was completely unwanted in betting when debuting in the Mia Dolce race from two weeks ago but despite starting near $100, she produced some of the better late splits of the race despite wanting to do plenty wrong in the straight. If she can take the natural progression from start one to start two into this, she has to be one of the leading contenders.

I’m keen on 1 Metro Boy (Bet Now: $2.40) running well here. Was on him at decent odds first up at this track/distance two weeks ago and he gave a really good kick in front. Just felt the pinch late when nabbed near the peg by Glasgow Girl. He should take good improvement from that outing and does have a touch of class/quality about him. Hard to beat here I think.

8 Ice Maker (Bet Now: $14.00) deserves a crack at Saturday grade. Brian Rogers trains this gelding, who ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he did a power of work on speed without getting to the rail. He was there to be beaten but gee he found plenty late and clung on to win. If that run hasn’t busted him, he has to be a winning chance against this lot.

For wider multiples, I’d include the Jason Pateman trained 5 Deep Cover (Bet Now: $34.00). He resumed in the Glasgow Girl race from two weeks ago where he was wide no cover on speed for the trip and was entitled to drop away, which he did. Draws to get a suck run just off the speed this time around and can pull out a decent run second up so an improved showing wouldn’t shock at all.

Chris Gangemi can certainly get one to fire first up, especially a cast off, and the market said that would be the case again via 10 Shinju (Bet Now: $4.40) when he resumed at this track/distance a fortnight back and while he didn’t win, I thought his effort was full of merit behind Glasgow Girl. Think he’ll take improvement off that, but the market, especially with this stable, will be the guide.

9 Salcity (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Jeff Noske trained three year old who has had two career outings. Thought he was really good in defeat on debut over 1200m here when beaten narrowly by Regal Magic. Stable sent him back to this trip last Wednesday where he led all the way and despite copping pressure mid race, he was too good, just. Clearly more depth here but like the way he’s going about it.

If they do go silly in front, 2 Fairview (Bet Now: $12.00) will be the one charging at them late. This Sean Casey trained filly resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago where she got back in the run and despite never really being a winning threat, she made ground and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Cryptic Love. Should take good improvement from that and off a likely fast speed, she’ll be strong at the end.

Going the way of the Lindsey Smith trained 7 Eye Art (Bet Now: $3.70). This mare was three weeks between runs when contesting the Swan River Vase here a fortnight ago and while clearly outclassed behind Come Play With Me and Gatting, she still ran third and was far from disgraced. Back to this level, she looks so well placed. Just depends what is left in the tank.

4 Noir De Rue (Bet Now: $4.00) is three weeks between runs for Justin Warwick since contesting a 2200m race where he was wide with cover throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for a close up third to Spiritual Warrior. He’s going really well this horse but just can’t crack it for a win. Think he gets a golden opportunity here.

5 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $9.00) comes through the Spiritual Warrior race from three weeks ago where I thought Noske gave the Michael Lane stayer every chance. He was there to win on the turn but couldn’t quite finish the race off, finishing fourth, beaten four lengths. Perhaps back to 2100m will help his cause given earlier in the prep, his efforts at 2000m were quite good.

5 Free Trade (Bet Now: $2.40) is a talented sprinter for Michael Lane who attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance two weeks ago and he was given a lovely front running steer by Kyra Yuill, giving a really good kick when asked for the effort, but Stageman got the split and under hard riding from Pike, proved too good. He’ll likely sit near the speed again and give his all.

7 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $3.60) is the interesting runner. Thought she was a near good thing when racing over 1200m here two weeks back but gee she was plain behind Cryptic Love after getting a decent run off the speed. First up win was electric and her late splits matched of that of Battle Storm, which does read well. Perhaps a fast run 1200m will help her claims against this lot.

6 Black Sabbath (Bet Now: $8.50) is the interesting runner. He was really well tried when racing over 1000m here three weeks ago when attempting to lead all the way and for mine, I thought he had every chance when fourth to Danny George, who arguably should have won last Saturday but had no luck so the form doesn’t read too and perhaps back up to 1200m will suit.

Think 3 Missile Launch (Bet Now: $14.00) is a really good each way gamble here. Vaughn Sigley trains this galloper, who resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago in the race won by Friaresque which involved The Velvet King veering off the track. Missile Launch was there with around 250m to go as a winning chance but condition gave out. Outstanding second up record, with his lone unplaced second up run coming last prep when beaten two lengths in a Northam Cup. Extremely hard to beat.

2 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Steve Wolfe trained three year old who dodged the 3YO features during the Winter Carnival because he is probably just a length or two off properly measuring up. He has been taking on the older horses recently with good success, having won two of his past three, the latest being at this track/distance two weeks ago when lumping 60kg and proving too good.

7 Double Digit (Bet Now: $4.20) is a son of Demerit for Ashley Maley who comes through the Friaresque race from two weeks back where he was on speed and tried hard but the strong tempo set by The Velvet King found him out late and he tired late to run fifth, though beaten just over two lengths. Don’t think the tempo will be as hot this time around and is a knockout chance.

I reckon 9 Marabel (Bet Now: $20.00) is worth having something small on each way. Former NSW galloper for Wendy Roche that is now with Cliff Green and I reckon her two runs in WA have been quite good, the latest seeing her run third to Fred Dag after sitting wide no cover for the trip. If she can get better luck this time around, third up at the mile, she looks hard to beat.

16 Vintage Stock (Bet Now: $21.00) is an Alan Matthews trained filly that was completely unwanted in betting when resuming at this track/distance a fortnight back and while she finished worse than midfield, I thought her last 50m, she was just starting to pick up late and was good through the line. Was only a couple of lengths away from Dark Choice in the WA Oaks, so the ability is there.

5 Skinnen Tins (Bet Now: $6.50) is two weeks between runs for Ashley Maley after racing over this track/distance where she had the reasonable run behind the speed and tried hard but just lacked the class to match them late and had to settle for a close up fifth to Lordhelpmerun. Bit of a drop in depth this time around and has a really good record second up after a break.

10 The Fugazi (Bet Now: $1.90) is the really interesting runner. Chris Gangemi trains this three year old, who was met with good market support when resuming over 1200m here a couple of Wednesdays back and the market got it spot on as he got the suck run behind the speed before getting clear air and dashing right away late. If he can take the required improvement off that, he’s in the mix for sure.

14 Zephyr Queen (Bet Now: $12.00) takes on the older horses but Jim Taylor has this filly going really well, winning 2/2 this time in. First up saw her win impressively at Northam, controlling things from the front and giving nothing else a look in. She then went to the 1300m here last Wednesday when on speed and fighting strongly to win again. Like her up to 1400m and I don’t see much speed drawn inside her, so the gate should be taken care of comfortably.

2 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $18.00) looks a key chance in a tough race. He resumed over 1200m here three weeks ago where he had the good sit behind the speed and tried hard when third to all the way winner Spirit And Fire. It was a race dominated those near the speed, but he is a second up winner and does have a decent enough record at this track. Key contender.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Excellent Dream

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Eye Art

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Missile Launch

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 9, 16

Leg Four: 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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