27/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

Seven races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Now he’s got a win on the board, confident that the Brett Pope trained 2 The Squirt (Bet Now: $6.50) can go on with it. Was a few weeks between runs when contesting a 1500m maiden at Pinjarra last time where Lucy had him three wide with cover in the A1 spot before peeling wider on the turn and in a few strides put the race to bed pretty quickly. Hopefully the confidence is up and he can go on with it.

1 Flat Biccy (Bet Now: $3.60) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell for the Harvey camp. Both runs have come over 1400m here, winning the maiden first up before a solid second to Storm Dancer after attempting to lead all the way. Might just want a tad further now, which he gets, and if he can get the lead and get a cheap furlong, he’ll prove hard to run down.

5 Aspen Star (Bet Now: $7.00) is a really interesting runner. Neville Parker trains this son of Starcraft, who hasn’t raced since Feb 25 2018 when a close up fifth over 1300m at Pinjarra. He’s had two okay trials leading into his return to racing, but the interesting one for me is that Pike is booked to ride. Have to respect any market moves, especially if they are positive.

Siding with 1 The Ninth Hour (Bet Now: $3.50). This son of Snitzel hasn’t raced since October 24 when winning impressively at this track/distance, sitting last in the run before producing a brilliant finale to get the job done. The form out of that race has been quite good and while he resumes without a trial, he didn’t have a trial prior to that win and a repeat effort would see him go close.

4 Lord Greystroke (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Neville Parnham trained three year old who should just about be ready fitness wise. He ran here on Good Friday and just couldn’t quicken on the bog track but stuck to the task well in defeat when second to Olga Luisa. May want 1200m now, but remaining at 1000m isn’t the worst thing in the world and the big tick is a dry track.

3 Gessato (Bet Now: $14.00) is a son of Dick Turpin for the Sean Casey stable that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since November 15 at Northam when back in the ruck and making ground late behind Nordic King, who was then one of the more in form three year olds in WA and went on to run well in town. Good fresh horse and liked the way he went in a recent trial.

Hard to ignore the way that 3 Soy Tan Rapido (Bet Now: $1.95) is going about it at the moment. This Simon Miller trained filly was well supported here when racing on the Good Friday meeting and she didn’t let her supporters down with a strong on speed win. Think she’ll be better on firmer footing and she has the speed to overcome the draw. Happy to be in her corner.

5 Rockafella (Bet Now: $4.00) is a former Sydneysider for Chris Gangemi who had his WA debut at this track/distance three weeks ago and for mine, he had every chance when fifth to Speeding Comet, with no real turn of foot evident, suggesting that 1400m might be to his liking, but there should be good speed here, so he’ll get his chance to finish over the top if he’s ready.

4 Klondike Kenny (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the seven day back up for the Brett Pope stable after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he got back in the run and didn’t fire a shot at all behind Double Bubble but the depth there was far stronger than what he faces here and getting back on top of the ground is a big tick for him. Not sure he wins, but looks a sharp improver.

Back up in trip should suit the Colin Webster trained 12 Unending (Bet Now: $7.00). This mare was an impressive winner over 2200m here before being freshened up and racing over 1800m where she just lacked the turn of foot but was more than sound in defeat behind World Is Yours. Up to 2100m looks perfect for her and in a tricky race, I think she’s one of the more safer options.

6 Eye Art (Bet Now: $6.00) is a lightly raced mare for Lindsey Smith who is putting together a decent record. Looked in a bit of trouble at various stages last time out at Pinjarra but Staeck got her clear air when it mattered and she finished best to get the job done. Think back up in trip will suit this six year old and she does have a stack of upside compared to most engaged.

10 Diplomat Express (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Dennis Barker trained gelding who has to be included in exotics. He ran over 2200m at Bunbury on April 11 when back off the speed and was really one paced on the wet track but stuck to the task gamely in defeat behind I’m A Love Man, beaten three lengths. Better suited on firmer footing I suspect and can fill a minor hole with luck in running.

3 Stoicism (Bet Now: $4.80) is a really interesting runner, a Martin Allan trained gelding resuming. Didn’t do much in a two run Winter prep at Belmont, perhaps not handling the give in the track each time he stepped out, but his career best efforts have come at Ascot. 1400m fresh tells me there is intent to run well first up and his two trials leading in have been sharp to the eye.

1 Vermont Lady…(Bet Now: $7.00) gee the money was on last Friday and if you were one of those that got the overs, it was just a horrendous watch. Had no luck in the straight, pretty much went to the line under a hold, and to make things worse, the saddled slipped. Hasn’t had much luck this time in but convinced she’s going well and if the breaks go her way, she can win.

2 Sigil (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Simon Miller trained son of Saxon who ran over 1200m here last Friday where he was caught wide no cover on speed and rightfully dropped out of the race late when down the track behind stablemate Double Bubble. Looks much better suited at 1400m and if he can get better luck this time around, a win wouldn’t totally shock…even though he hasn’t won in nearly three years.

Hard to get away from the Simon Miller trained 5 Special Reward (Bet Now: $1.80), who is 2/2 this time in, the latest coming two weeks back when comfortably finding the front and from there, it was a pretty painless watch and he was far too good. Likely does more work to find the front this time around but just can’t ignore the way he’s going at the moment and is the one to beat.

1 Reykjavik (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained four year old who had trialled up pretty well prior to resuming in the Mungrup Sprint at Mount Barker where he was given a sweet steer from Staeck and despite being somewhat out of petrol tickets late, he was too good. The trial at the start of the month was quite good and he does have class on his side compared to most of these.

9 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $8.50) broke a run of outs with a tough on speed win here two weeks ago at this track/distance, lumping the weight, putting the pressure on the hot pot Free Trade and he was too good. Gets really good weight relief this time around and should just about get run of the race from where he’s drawn. Now he’s won, he can go on with it and measure up.

I think 1 New Age (Bet Now: $2.40) is best suited at the mile and with that being the case, happy to be with her. Adam Durrant tried her out as a stayer but for the most part, it just didn’t work out, so he stepped her back in trip to the mile two weeks ago and the rewards were instant as she finished best with momentum to score. Can only improve off that I think and is hard to beat.

6 Yeah Bravo (Bet Now: $5.50) comes through the race mentioned above won by New Age. I thought Parnham gave the four year old every chance to win but was just very one paced in the straight to run fourth. If this was 1800m, I’d give him a serious chance of winning. Mind you he was on the quick back up that day, so extra few days off might do him some good. Does get a 2kg weight pull on New Age.

7 Discoville (Bet Now: $11.00) is a seven year old veteran for Neville Parnham who broke a long run of outs with a narrow but solid win over this track/distance last time out, sitting off a genuine speed before angling wider on the turn and finishing best in a driving go to the line. He usually struggles at Saturday metro level but with a win under the belt, he could be better off.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Special Reward

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Soy Tan Rapido

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 12 Unending

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 1, 6, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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