Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Cranbourne on Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (18:00) Browns Sawdust & Shavings Mdn 1500m
Think Willow can take control from the outset with 2 Midnight Rambler (Bet Now: $1.90) and prove too good. Ran over the mile last Friday night at the Valley when just off the speed and tried hard when third to Evie Girl, beaten over five lengths though. Think Williams will be positive and in a race void of early speed, he should lead and prove hard to beat.
6 Lonhgoal (Bet Now: $4.50) gets the Blinkers on first time and can be an improver here. Attempted to lead throughout at Geelong last time out and tried hard, but just lacked the quality to finish it off behind Sweet Karolina. That form reads okay for a race like this and the depth here compared to Geelong isn’t as strong.
1 Cutting Loose (Bet Now: $18.00) is the map horse. Michael Moroney trained gelding that was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1400m at Pakenham where he got a fair way back in the run and closed off okay without really threatening. Third up now, hard fit, can see him holding leaders back and being a winning threat.
Race 2. (18:30) Dirt Rock Civil Mdn Plate 1300m
Tipping Willow to make it 2/2, this time with 4 Mighty Feat (Bet Now: $4.00). Thought he did a good job in a Pakenham maiden last time out. Led at a solid tempo and tried his heart out. Just felt the pinch late when third to Hasseltoff, who went super at Sandown on Wednesday in defeat, so the form reads well, should find the front and take running down.
9 Ayahuasca (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Tavistock filly on debut for the Price/Kent team. This girl had two jumpouts in the Winter before being spelled. Has come back this time in with one jumpout at Sandown but looked to go about her business quite nicely. Interesting to see what the market does, but think she has ability.
3 Gen Wine (Bet Now: $5.00) looks suited up to 1300m for the Busuttin/Young camp. Debuted over 1100m at Kyneton. Had a good run just behind the speed but was one of the first off the bit on the turn. Stayed on and stuck to the task pretty well when second to Casino Nicconi. Gate one, extra ground, fitter, hard to beat.
Race 3. (19:00) Designer Coolrooms Mdn Plate 1000m
Could be a really fat night for Willow. He steers 4 Winsum (Bet Now: $1.35), who does look the good thing on the program and the best across Australia. Hasn’t raced since debuting in the Blue Diamond Prelude where he was very good late behind Hanseatic. Immediately spelled and his recent jumpout win here was very sharp. Only bad luck beats him and it’s a case of pretty much any price.
10 Cop A Clip (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to have her share of ability. Just a shame she bumps into a potential Stakes class horse in Winsum. She’s had two jumpouts this prep to get ready for her debut, both coming here and each time she has greeted the judge first and gone about her business. She’ll run well…doubt she beats home Winsum.
5 Yulong Progress (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Written Tycoon galloper for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding. There is a comparison in form you can make with this guy and Winsum. Yulong Progress was five lengths off Hanseatic in the Preview whereas Winsum was three lengths off Hanseatic in the Prelude. Yulong Progress has been gelded and jumped out well.
Race 4. (19:30) Afc-peter & Lavella Darose Mdn 2600m
2600m maidens…raise the bat and let it go through to the keeper for the most part. The one most likely to win IMO is 8 Wellsford (Bet Now: $2.15). His form from the Autumn behind the likes of Zoffmira and High Emocean just reads far superior to anything else here. Resumed over 2000m here in a maiden and was good late behind Exalted Crown. Eats up the 2600m, got upside and the right form…it’s a 2600m maiden, so don’t want to declare him, but he’s very hard to beat.
9 Barely A Challenge (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Pat Carey trained stayer that will put himself on speed and giving his all, which was the case over 2500m at Pakenham last time out, leading and staying on soundly in defeat behind Mr Joobs, who was plain at Sandown on Wednesday, so the form is suspect, but he’s in the right camp.
2 Fort Charles (Bet Now: $18.00) is on his home track and has less convictions than most engaged here. Debuted over 2200m at Bairnsdale where he was back near last in the run and never really featured, but wasn’t too bad for a horse debuting over that sort of trip. Gets Winkers on to sharpen him, on his home track, could sneak a first four spot.
Race 5. (20:00) Tab Long May We Play Hcp (c1) 1400m
Looks a good kick off point for the WaterBott three year old 6 Narvaez (Bet Now: $2.90). This colt had a busy 2YO campaign, but he does have some solid form lines around him, including Cherry Tortoni, Tommy Gold and a horse currently racing well, Angel Helena. Two Flemington jumpout wins to get him ready, should find the front…and yep, Craig Williams is steering.
7 Obedience (Bet Now: $6.50) is a big watch here. Matt Cumani trained mare that resumes, having not raced since May 2 at Sandown on a very testing track when down the track and at the end of a long prep behind Hezafox. Interesting that there is no public jumpouts, so a bit of guessing involved. Market will be the guide.
3 Guns Ablazing (Bet Now: $17.00) will be better suited at 2000m+, but could sneak a first four spot at odds. Hasn’t raced since June 26 when slogging it out best to win his maiden over 2400m at Geelong. Think next year he could be a jumper for the stable but has jumped out okay for his return here and does no work from the gate.
Race 6. (20:30) Mercedes-benz Mornington-bm70 1000m
6 Knowles (Bet Now: $3.20) looks much, much better placed here. Was a proper throw at the stumps when resuming on Oaks Day at Flemington and she found the class a bit much behind Ancestry. She isn’t a Stakes class horse at this stage of her career, so think she’s better suited here and jumped out like a jet prior, so I’m giving her another chance.
1 Hidden Legend (Bet Now: $3.70) is a son of Pluck for the John Sadler team that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since June 3 when taking on the older horses on testing ground at Sandown and fought on okay when fifth to Trigger Point. Has looked good in a couple of jumpouts and does have enough early toe to potentially slot over and get cover.
8 Power Boom (Bet Now: $7.50) is a very interesting runner. Glenn Thornton trained mare that resumes and I thought they placed her poorly last prep. Impressive first up win on the Synthetic at Pakenham before placing at the Valley. Could have went back to this sort of level and win, but they went to town again and that run busted her. Started again with her here, no jumpouts, so watch the market, but she’s capable.
Race 7. (21:00) De Bortoli Wines (bm64) 1200m
Fresh legs and back to 1200m I do like for 5 He’s A Balter (Bet Now: $6.00). Hasn’t raced since Geelong Cup Day over 1400m when back in the run and making up ground without really threatening behind November Dreaming. Seems much more effective at 1200m and the form around him does read well for a race like this.
12 Fixated (Bet Now: $3.90) is another strong winning chance for Craig Williams. Johnny Allen rode a 12/10 race on him on Ararat Cup Day and even then, the three year old nearly threw it away, just getting there in the last couple of strides. Draws wide, but suspect they will be positive. He’s hard fit and now has that win on the board. Could go on with it.
11 Our Guardian Angel (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Toronado mare for Colin Little that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since bolting up to break her maiden tag at Ballarat back in April where the form out of that maiden has been quite good. Has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for her return, so I’d watch the market.
Race 8. (21:30) Obrien Real Estate (bm64) 1600m
With 3 All Too Terrific (Bet Now: $4.20) in the get out. Thought she was good on Oaks Day behind the in form Tralee Rose before dropping back to a 58 at Benalla where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted under Dan Stackhouse. Loses nothing with Jamie Mott taking over and a couple of her key rivals are coming either out of a maiden or a 58 as well. She’s the one for me.
6 Punkzy (Bet Now: $3.20) has the 64 form, and strong 64 form, so she’s one of the leading contenders. Ran over 1400m at Geelong last time out and closed off strongly from off the pace when a close up second to Our Birdsong. Her overall strike rate isn’t too flash, but she’s honest and overall, this isn’t an overly strong race.
Doubt that 7 Tugga War (Bet Now: $6.50) wins but can certainly include in wider multiples. Was given a lovely ride by Caserta at Bairnsdale last time out, getting the suck run in behind the speed before getting clear air and finishing best. Tends to do his best racing in 58 races so perhaps wait til he gets back to that grade to bet to win. More of a first four contender here.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Winsum
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Narvaez
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 He’s A Balter
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 6
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg Three: 5, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 3, 6
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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