27/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Moonee Valley Cup night

2 Celui (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Brent Stanley trained three year old that resumed on the home deck at Bendigo and just produced sustained speed from the outset, giving nothing else a look in and was outstanding in returning. If he can stretch the brilliance out, then they are cooking with gas.

8 Revalene (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat if the track is playing towards those up/in. He debuted over 1000m at Cranbourne where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second. 1000m at The Valley looks ideal and he should be leading, or at worst, stalking Celui. Either way, he’ll be around the mark.

7 Holy Racket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope for Team Williams. He broke a run of outs at Pakenham Synthetic where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, giving them a spanking and was impressive. Maps ideally, Craig Williams takes over…if they go silly in front, I think he will be one of the strongest late.

2 Beltoro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has eyes on the Big Dance but I think he’s going well enough to take this out. He comes through the Toorak where he just got too far back in the run and did make up ground but was never a factor behind Attrition. The depth here is nowhere near as strong, he gets a jockey upgrade and he will be stronger than most at the end.

3 Umgawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Team Corstens. He comes through the Tamerlane race from a few weeks ago at Flemington where he wasn’t suited by the race shape but I really liked the way he finished his race off to run third. The Valley makes things interesting because I do think bigger tracks suit but that said, this field is on the thin side. Leading chance.

4 Ima Shelby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be an improver at odds. I thought he would run well in the Gold Nugget at Ballarat but when asked for the effort, he went backwards and was never a factor, with perhaps the track being too firm. There is always a bit of juice in the track at The Valley and off prior efforts, that is good enough to be more than competitive here.

3 Port Albert (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings the A1 form and despite the tricky gate, he clearly rates highly and IMO is the one to beat. He ran over 1100m at Hamilton last time out when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a strong kick but had no answers late for Mawallock, who would be $1.50 against these, so I think that is the right form for this and with B Shinn on, I’ll back him to overcome the gate.

2 Kooled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at the track previously and has upside. He resumed over 1200m at Ballarat where he just looked in need of the run and that’s how it panned out but he wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Give Giggles. Reckon he’d love a bit of juice in the track, which I doubt he gets, and I doubt he beats the Lindsey Smith horse but can fill a place.

1 Rosalia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for Paddy Payne. She comes here off the back of a strong on speed win at Bendigo where she landed bets at odds, proving quite impressive late in the piece and maintaining a safe margin. Is she good enough to win a race like this? No, but with her racing pattern, she’ll give herself every chance to pinch first four.

Provided there are eight runners, I think 5 Fission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the better each way gambles on the program. Griffiths/De Kock trained gelding that resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance when back in the run and made up solid headway late without threatening. He maps to stalk Frilled and I think with the suck run, he will be strong at the end.

6 Frilled… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. Matty Smith trained mare that is 4/4 to start her career, her latest win coming over 1000m here when leading throughout and despite being challenged late, he had a bit in hand and was too good in an impressive display. 955m set up, I think, will be ideal and she has the right racing pattern. Leading contender.

2 Rattle And Bang (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good racing style for Moonee Valley and appeals as a key chance despite a potentially tricky gate. He ran over 1100m at Caulfield last time when leading and giving a solid kick but had no answers late for the finale of Dancing Alone. Gets in quite well after the claim and if he lands on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he can win without surprising.

1 Lombardo (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, is back on track. Price/Kent trained gelding that jumped out like an absolute jet prior to resuming in the Schillaci at Caulfield where the race shape wasn’t to his liking but he was far from disgraced behind a star mare, Asfoora. Fitter, up in trip and with a liking for The Valley, as well as a massive drop in grade/depth, she’s clearly hard to beat.

2 Ranges (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Snowden trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 12 when placing in the Ramornie at Grafton behind The Big Goodbye. He is a reliable horse at around this level and the stable rarely get it wrong when they travel. Two trials under the belt, he can sprint well fresh, he’s a leading chance against these.

4 Outlaws Revenge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race. He was specked at odds when resuming down the straight at Flemington in the Gilgai and just didn’t fire a shot in a pretty plain return behind Star Patrol, but that race had heat to it. No horse of that quality here so I think back in grade/depth, run under the belt, he can run a much improved race.

3 Forgot You (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. He saves his best for The Valley and comes back here off the back of a down the track effort in the Might And Power where he finished down the track behind Alligator Blood, pulling up post race with EIPH, so a clear excuse for him. Back miles in grade/depth, if he runs up to prior efforts, I think he’ll be winning this.

5 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack at a race like this. He is in a real purple patch at the moment, winning two back over the mile here before stepping up to 1800m at Sandown when giving them a start and a beating, letting down with a brilliant finale to score. 2/2 at The Valley and the way he’s racing at the moment, he has to be respected.

1 Bank Maur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race back to this level. He comes through the Turnbull where he went way too hard in front and was a beaten horse 400m out, finishing down the track behind Gold Trip. This looks more within his reach and if he can relax on speed and not spend as many petrol tickets, he appeals as a key chance.

14 Lunar Flare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks absolutely thrown in at the weights. Quality mare for Grahame Begg that is ticking along beautifully towards the Melbourne Cup. Jury was out on her but she found positive form when returning to Flemington in the Turnbull and was very good late behind Gold trip. That form is A1, she loves The Valley and getting towards peak fitness, gee she appeals as a cracking bet.

3 Vow And Declare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another in this race that is heading towards the Melbourne Cup and is on track. He comes through the Might And Power where he kept finding the line and was quite good late in the piece when second to Alligator Blood. I reckon he’s a better horse on bigger tracks, but has class on his side and that will carry him a long way.

15 So Dazzling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love a rise in trip for John Sargent. She had no hope in the Angst two weeks back at Randwick with the race shape but the last 50m-100m and through the line, I thought she was quite good. She’ll love the rise to 2500m, she has enormous upside and stable is flying at the moment. With 51kg too, she’s a knockout hope.

9 Glitter N Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) only runs well for me in the get out. Lindsey Smith trained mare that resumes, having not raced since the Warrnambool Cup when far from disgraced in defeat behind Rolls. She is better suited over further but with three jumpouts under the belt, two of them at 1400m, the grounding is there to run well fresh, maps ideally, D Oliver on…each way for me.

4 Sirius Black (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Maher/Eustace and is one of the leading contenders. He has won his past two, two back at Sandown before going to The Valley where he led throughout and was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Maps to get a good time of it on speed again and only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

5 Rambler Rebel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. Michelle Payne trained gelding that comes back in trip after racing over 2040m three weeks back here. He attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but the end of the trip just found him out late and got the staggers behind Asgoodassobergets. Back in trip, lands near the front…he’ll give cheek at a price.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Lunar Flare

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Port Albert

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Fission

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Three: 14

Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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