27/10/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Cox Plate day

History will be made whatever the result of the Cox Plate (2040m) this Saturday at Moonee Valley with the race regarded as the best two minutes in Australian sport highlighting a brilliant ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Cox Plate Field 🏆: View the Cox Plate Field

This looks a really deep race with a stack of nice animals stepping out. I’ll go with the Mick Kent first starter 1 Capito (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS). He trialled a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne and to my eye I thought he moved well. Wasn’t asked for much but when Ethan Brown did click him up, there was a response. In a wide, I’ll have a throw at the stumps via him.

4 True Serendipity (Bet Now: $7.50 FAT ODDS) is a Matt Cumani trained son of Toronado having his first start. I loved the way he moved in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Eased back to near last before Jordan Childs peeled him wider on the turn and under his own steam he cantered in and ran good time. Looks a nice type.

The Maher/Eustace team had a couple of runners nominated but they have the one runner in 10 Salome (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS), a daughter of Unencumbered on debut. She trialled a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne and looked to move well to my eye when a close up fourth to Ruski. Tricky draw but looks talented.

7 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) for me. Hoping he can sit back off a hot tempo and have last look. Very good short course animal for Patrick Payne that hasns’t raced since August 29 at Sandown when second to the above average sprinter Isaurian. Is a winner at this track/distance and for mine, he’s really well in at the weights.

4 Guard Of Honour (Bet Now: $5.75 FAT ODDS) could easily win this with the right run. First two runs back from a break were disappointing to the eye, but he did have excuses each time. Been freshened up and his confidence is back up with a five length trial romp at Newcastle. Got the class to win. Just needs luck in running.

1 Thermal Current (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) is another that I like here. He resumed in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne and loomed large to win when he got clear but just ran out of condition late when third to Runson. Back to 955m the little query, but he’s lethal when produced second up and has a very good record at the Valley.

I think 2 Savatiano (Bet Now: $2.35 FAT ODDS) can get the job done here. This mar eran in the Blazer at Flemington three weeks ago where they looked the two and I think in the end, the difference was that Invinicibella had clear air while Savatiano was held up and couldn’t build any momentum. I think with clear air this time, she can go one better.

1 Princess Posh (Bet Now: $7.50 FAT ODDS) is a mare who has been up a while it seems but gee she’s racing well. Comes here off the back of a strong effort in the Angst at Randwick where she worked home well late to run a close up fifth to I Am Serious. The weight is a little negative, but has the soft gate and hard mile run under the belt.

7 Shoko (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) will welcome the drop in depth. She ran in the Blazer at Flemington where she attempted to lead all the way and just copped a bit too much pressure when down the track behind Invincibella. Not as much depth this time around and should get a really good time of it in front. She can bounce back.

I’m hoping sustained speed gets the win via 7 Rainbow Girl (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS). Only comes here off a Bairnsdale 64 win, but it was just brilliant sustained speed throughout over the 1000m and smashed the clock relative to the day. Just has to tick the 1200m box. Will look the winner. Hopefully she’s strong enough at the end.

5 I’m So Sweet (Bet Now: $9.00 FAT ODDS) is a Team Hawkes trained filly who looks to have come back in really good order. Solid effort two back behind She’s Furline before going to Rosehill on a bog where she finished best nearer the inside to get the win. Off that effort, the 1200m here at this level should be no issue and stable is in good touch at the moment.

9 Beauty (Bet Now: $18.00 FAT ODDS) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who was an alarming drifter in betting when resuming at Bendigo but despite having no friends in the market, she found plenty late and dug in to win, which is a great sign for a young horse at start two. With the right run, she can certainly beat these. Just needs things to fall into place.

7 Wagner (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Bernadini colt for James Cummings who comes here fresh. He hasn’t raced since the Caulfield Guineas Prelude where he ran well but was outclassed for the most part behind Native Soldier. I think back to 1200m suits and back to this level, he’s very likeable. Just want a market push.

3 Spin (Bet Now: $5.00) was well specked when contesting the Roman Consul last time and I thought he ran as well as he could on the bog. He loomed to win but just didn’t quite let down on the wet track when third to Sesar. He’ll be much better on the firmer surface here and with the speed on, he’ll be strong late.

D-Day for 1 Aylmerton (Bet Now: $9.00). He promised so much in his 2YO season and was set to take the leap to a star 3YO, but he has been a big flop this time in, though last start there were excuses in the Roman Consul last start on the bog behind Sesar. Much better suited on top of the ground and at his best, he’ll win.

At her best, 1 El Dorado Dreaming (Bet Now: $5.50) should prove far too good for this lot. Forgive a good horse for one poor run and that’s the case for mine in the Thousand Guineas. Just didn’t handle the rock hard track and was ridden a touch too close to the speed. Worked well here on Saturday and at her best, she’s better than these.

2 Fundamentalist (Bet Now: $5.50) nearly caused a massive boilover at $101 in the Thousand Guineas. She was given a lovely steer just off the speed and once she got clear air, she dashed and looked the winner, but Amphitrite bloused her late. Think she wants further, but off last start, she has to be respected.

3 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $4.20) is an Adam Trinder trained filly who is several weeks between runs since winning impressively at Caulfield, winning the Jim Moloney in impressive fashion. Surprising she didn’t go towards the Thousand Guineas because I think she could have measured up. Despite that, I think she has to be respected. Not really a long shot but I can’t see anything outside this trio winning.

8 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $3.50) bounced back to winning form when winning over 1400m at Caulfield two back before going to the Toorak where he sat on a pretty hot speed and fought on strongly in defeat behind stablemate Land Of Plenty. A hard mile looks right up his alley and does have a liking for the track.

Interested to see what 7 Sir John Lavery (Bet Now: $6.00) does. Made his Australian debut over 1400m in the Paris Lane and you could make a strong case he should have fought the finish out. Just had no luck getting clear air at the right time behind Eckstein. Up in trip looks ideal. Class is the only concern with this son of Galileo.

Have to give respect to 2017 Doncaster winner 1 It’s Somewhat (Bet Now: $8.00). Ran in the Craven Plate last time at Randwick and I thought he had his chance but perhaps the bog track didn’t help his cause behind Moss ‘N’ Dale. Ran well in this race last year and is a big time Group l performer at the trip. Firmer ground helps.

Was hard to miss the run of 6 The Taj Mahal (Bet Now: $5.00) in the Caulfield Cup. Had Cosgrove on Best Solution not taken off with him, J Mac could well have pinched it. The win prior in the JRA Cup here was very good and I think it’s a big tick when Team Williams have runners on the seven day turnaround given it’s rare they do.

Forgive a good horse for one poor run and you have to do that with 13 Tosen Basil (Bet Now: $7.50). His run was too bad to be true last time out in the Caulfield Stakes. Maybe he felt the firm track behind Benbatl? Barrier blanket and tongue tie on suggest there were excuses. Off the Underwood run, he’s right in the game.

Convinced that 10 Libran (Bet Now: $9.50) is racing well and I think he gets a chance to showcase that. Have to put a line through his run in the Metropolitan given the tempo of the race wasn’t that hot and he was out the back. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and did place in this race last year.

It’s going to be a privilege to witness history we may never see again in the shape of 6 Winx (Bet Now: $1.22) winning her fourth straight Cox Plate. Had no right to win the Turnbull under the circumstances but she’s Winx and she produced freakish splits to get the win. She loves the Valley and any drop of rain would make her more of a good thing.

It was interesting hearing the trainer of 1 Benbatl (Bet Now: $8.50), Saeed Bin Suroor, say that the horse needs rain to have any chance of beating Winx. Problem being that the mare is better when she gets her toe in. Despite that, he’s a beauty and his Caulfield Stakes win was outstanding. Big thing going for him is that he’ll get a soft lead.

4 Avilius (Bet Now: $27.00) is the x factor. He’s heading towards the Melbourne Cup and this should clean out the cobwebs. His Bart Cummings win was very good, though he want to lay in badly late under pressure. I have serious doubts about him as a Melbourne Cup horse, but he should get the run of the race from gate one here.

Hard to get away from 1 Aramayo (Bet Now: $3.20). He’s my pick for the Derby off the back of an outstanding run in the Spring Champion where he was beaten a lip by Maid Of Heaven, running past Thinkin Big, who of course bolted up in the Caulfield Classic, so that form reads very well for this. Happy to be with him.

I have to respect 11 Botti (Bet Now: $17.00) for the Baker/Forsman team. On the quick back up after racing on Moe Cup Day last Thursday where he was absolutely enormous in defeat. Had no luck from the 600m onwards when seemingly and should have won when fifth to The Gatting Ball. Valley first time a query, but looks to have real upside.

7 Real Success (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a progressive three year old for Matt Laurie. Ran over the mile at Caulfield last Wednesday where he lacked the turn of foot to win but stayed on and was very good late when a narrow second to Syd’s Coin. Bred to eat up the trip. Lacks the class but appears a bit of value IMO.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Savatiano

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 El Dorado Dreaming

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Capito

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8

Leg Two: 3, 6, 10, 13

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 11, 13

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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