27/1/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Australia Day Cup day

Eight races will be run and won at Warwick Farm on Monday where the feature race is the $150,000 Listed Australia Day Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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Pretty keen here in the opener in the shape of 9 Quiet Riot (Bet Now: $2.20), a Fastnet Rock colt for Bjorn Baker that is on debut. This three year old has had three trials this prep in readiness for start one, the latest coming here on January 20 when on speed and wide throughout but bolted clear and won in good time. Has the early speed to overcome the gate and on the home track, will take a power of beating.

2 All Time Legend (Bet Now: $5.00) is on debut here for Les Bridge and I find him a very interesting runner. Son of Zoustar on debut for Les Bridge off the back of one trial this time in, which came over 1000m at Randwick when not knocked about in beating one home in what was a fast run trial. McEvoy on from gate one, he’s certainly a market/yard watch.

6 Gunfighter (Bet Now: $41.00) can be an improver at odds. Debuted for John Thompson over 1100m at Canterbury when wide no cover and was very green in the run, so for mine, a total forgive behind Quantico. Trialled at Hawkesbury on Monday and liked the way he closed off there. Was $11 on debut, and will likely be $31+ for this, so from a Starting Price perspective, he’s likeable if that’s your forte.

Think she’s a good bet here is 6 Satin Rain (Bet Now: $3.50). Great late splits first up over 1000m on the Kenso track before jumping to 1550m at Canterbury when well specked but the track pattern/tempo was against and she couldn’t quite run on well enough. Has the run at the trip under the belt now and touch wood, the track here plays fair.

4 Money Magic (Bet Now: $4.60) should be suited up to 1600m. She was six weeks between runs last time out at Kembla and on face value, she seemed to every chance given the tempo was slow, but perhaps she was beaten by a good one in Toomai. Time will tell, but fitter and up to the mile with a good racing style, she’s likeable.

3 Tombstone (Bet Now: $13.00) is perhaps one to watch once he gets out over more of a trip, but I think the Freedman camp have a nice three year old on their hands here. Was unwanted in betting first up on the Kenso track and ran accordingly when down the track behind Twentyfour Carat, but he did parade like he would need the run and the race/track pattern was against. Big improver here.

1 Diddles (Bet Now: $3.60) on top for me, but not really a race I want to get involved in. This Clarry Conners has showed good ability since day one but hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype. Contested the Magic Millions maiden last time when on speed, a good tempo, and couldn’t quite go on with it. Back to her home track and back to 1100m with Nash on, she’ll do me.

5 Penang (Bet Now: $2.60) is a well bred filly for Team Snowden that is resuming. Had two runs at Kembla over 1000m to start her prep and showed good early toe before getting the staggers late. Been given a break and her two trials leading in have been quite good. Did trial well prior to the debut, so me, happy to just watch rather than back.

2 Disengage (Bet Now: $51.00) is an Arlington filly on debut for Garry Frazer. This girl has had three trials in readiness for start one, the latest coming at Hawkesbury on Monday when on speed and doing a bit wrong but once she balanced up in the straight, she looked to move well. Interesting that she debuts in town and not at the provincials, so watch the market.

I’m going the way of 9 Iconic Star (Bet Now: $7.00) for Kris Lees. Was somewhat against her when she resumed at Taree given she was first up off a long break, paraded like she would need the run, but she led throughout, spanked them and ran good time in doing so. From gate one, Avdulla has all the options in the world and she looks the one that is overs.

7 Private Thoughts (Bet Now: $3.70) has done nothing wrong this time in for John O’Shea. Won her first two starts for the prep in pretty good style before racing at this track/distance when wide and doing work in chasing tearaway leader Yitai Synergy, but closed off strongly and got very close to the win. Gets the claim for Louise Day, soft draw…just a query of what upside is left.

4 Hibiscus Lady (Bet Now: $13.00) is a daughter of Foxwedge for Ron Quinton that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since September 11 at Canterbury when not getting the best of luck in the run behind Grimoire. Comes here with just soft trial under the belt but the winner of the trial, Sanctioned, bolted up on Wednesday, so that reads well.

A bit surprised the odds bookies went up with 1 Azuro (Bet Now: $5.00) for this. Best stayer in this race by a mile and am tipping this will become a true staying contest via Taikomochi. Azuro comes through the Bagot on New Years Day at Flemington and you can easily make a case that he should have won had he got a clear path in the straight. Best stayer in the race and so well in at the weights.

7 Our Fun (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy staying mare for Team Freedman that put together a couple of sharp wins prior to contesting the Magic Millions Trophy at the Gold Coast and I thought she was very good in defeat behind Primitivo. Not sure what upside she has left for the prep, but on form, most notably last start, has to be respected.

5 Aqua D’Ivina (Bet Now: $8.00) has a really good record on her home track and the Warwick Farm horses on their home track are very hard to beat. Stop/start tempo of the January Cup was against her last time and battled away okay despite being well held by Luvaluva. Little query at 2400m, but does no work from the gate and is on the minimum.

3 Voila (Bet Now: $6.00) should be suited third up at 1400m. Chris Waller trains this mare, who was 1150m to 1400m on New Years Day and loomed to beat Twentyfour Carat, but just lacked the hard race fitness and had to settle for second, but far from disgraced. Has upside to come I am thinking and is racing as if this set up will be ideal for her.

5 Aim For Perfection (Bet Now: $3.10) is starting to become somewhat of a favourite with bookmakers but third up, 1400m, dry track, she gets one more chance before it’s a life ban. Tardy starts aren’t helping her cause at all, so want to be forgiving of her effort behind Enfleurage. This is the perfect set up for her, so she’s in last chance territory.

7 Toomai (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a progressive filly for Chris Waller and surprise she opened double figures. Broke the maiden two back at Beaumont Newcastle before going to Kembla and produced the win of the meeting IMO, finishing hard off a slow speed to win from the back. Heading in the right direction. Hopefully can take advantage of the draw.

11 Chat (Bet Now: $5.00) didn’t let me down when winning over 1300m here last time out so going to butter up. Thought the ride from Kathy won the race for the three year old, sitting much closer in the run, stalking the speed, and despite pulling hard in the run, he was too good for them. Hopefully can get cover from the gate, a drag into the race and prove too good at the end.

10 Mandela (Bet Now: $4.60) was potentially on the Magic Millions Guineas path but his two runs back didn’t really warrant a look in for the race. Was strong late first up at Eagle Farm behind Malahide before being down the track two weeks back at the Gold Coast behind Phobetor. This looks an ideal race for him if he decides to bring his best.

Really interested in 7 Think It Over (Bet Now: $16.00), a talented gelding for Kerry Parker that resumes with eyes towards the Provincial Championship. Resumes after winning impressively from off the speed at Hawkesbury back in September and was tipped out with the Provincial Championship in mind. Trial win at Kembla was good and will be an eye catcher late.

Having a throw at the stumps in the last in the shape of 10 Partners (Bet Now: $21.00), who hasn’t really been relaxing in her races hence why she has gone hard in front and tried to break their hearts. That was the case at Scone last time out and she battled away pretty well after setting a good speed. Tumbles down to 52kg after the claim, a 7.5kg weight drop from last time. Hoping Louise Day lets him run.

11 Just Field (Bet Now: $5.00) is a little query at a strong 1200m at metro level, but I think Team Snowden have this filly going well. Ran over 1100m at Gosford last time out when on speed and kicked strongly under Mitch Bell but was bloused near the peg by Moccasin Miss. Gets a soft run from the gate…just a query at 1200m.

4 Lady Demi (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Terry Robinson trained mare who is heading towards the Country Championship so keen to see how she goes in town here. Resumed in a Highway at Randwick just over two weeks ago and worked home hard from well back to run second. If she can sit closer in the run from the inside gate, she might be dangerous late.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Azuro

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 9 Quiet Riot

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 9 Iconic Star

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7, 12

Leg Three: 3, 7, 10, 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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