A cracking program of top class racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, with the highlight race being the $400,000 Group ll Golden Pendant (1400m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40pm) : Rydges Parramatta Handicap (80) 2000m:
Back Me: Dance Of Heroes (Best Odds: $4.60) for me here. He scored a strong win two back at Canterbury before coming to the 1800m here a couple of weeks back and it was just the bob of the head between he and Herne’s Oak that beat him home. He will be fitter and should love the rise to 2000m. I think he is one of the better bets on the program provided it’s a firm surface.
Big Danger: Four Carat (Best Odds: $6.00) wasn’t too bad when resuming at Warwick Farm behind Lucky Ima Cugat before being given a Jim Cassidy special to win next time out at Hawkesbury over 1800m. He has enormous upside and could well be on a float to Melbourne for races like the Geelong Cup and Bendigo Cup if he performs well here, and I am confident he will.
Roughie: Scherzoso (Best Odds: $8.50) ran fifth in that Herne’s Oak race and I thought he was pretty good there considering it was his first run in Sydney and he didn’t have a great amount of luck in the straight. He looks as though he will handle the journey, and the stable is just low flying at the moment with their runners, so he has to be respected.
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Race Two (1:15pm) : Dyldam Stan Fox Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for Press Statement (Best Odds: $1.40). Just forget his run in the Golden Rose (1400m) given he got badly held up in the straight, couldn’t build up momentum, and the speed of the race just didn’t suit him. Up in trip is ideal, and the tempo should be more genuine than the one he sat behind in the Group l. Extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: Rageese (Best Odds: $5.50) was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Golden Rose. He sat back near last in a slowly run race yet worked home very strongly to finish fourth to Exosphere. He is another who will be suited up to 1500m and he can definitely challenge Press Statement if he is close enough on the turn.
Roughie: The really interesting runner is the Bruce Hill trained Man Of His Word (Best Odds: $17.00). He ran over 1200m on his home track at the Gold Coast last weekend and produced an unbelievable turn of foot to win with ridiculous ease, winning by a margin and running sharp time. He will have no trouble with the 1500m and the stable knows when to bring them to Sydney.
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Race Three (1:50pm) : Dilmah Colin Stephen Quality 2400m:
Back Me: I’ve been quite impressed by the two runs of former UK gelding King Kinshasa (Best Odds: $4.80), who is with Gai Waterhouse. He took care of them first up at Hawkesbury before going to the Kingston Town and wasn’t beaten far when fourth to Silverball. What gets me keen about this horse here is the first up run and the form. The runner up has since won impressively and the third placegetter ran third in the Newcastle Cup on Friday, and Silverball is a live Group l horse.
Big Danger: Kingdoms (Best Odds: $8.00) is a definite improver for Brian Smith. He ran in the Kingston Town and was quite solid I thought when fifth, beaten just under two lengths. He should be getting close to peak fitness now third up from a break and he does tend to save his best for 2400m. Look out for him in the Metropolitan, but he can certainly win here.
Roughie: Sasenkile (Best Odds: $21.00) probably lacks the class of a few of these, but he was working to the line alright late in the Newcastle Cup when finishing ninth to Beyond Thankful, beaten just over four lengths. He has won his lone 2400m run, has plenty of upside and the stable is just low flying at the moment.
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Race Four (2:30pm) : Reginald Allen Quality 1400m:
Back Me: Flamboyant Lass (Best Odds: $2.60) was due to run last weekend in the Tea Rose but was scratched due to the wet track. She was highly regarded by many to win there, so you have to respect her here. The trial win recently was outstanding and there is a bit of a boom on this girl.
Big Danger: Italy (Best Odds: $9.00) stuck to the task quite gamely when running fourth in the Furious behind star filly Speak Fondly. Has since trialled at Warwick Farm and looked in very good order. Gate one here and the in form Sam Clipperton takes the ride.
Roughie: Alart (Best Odds: $9.00) can run a cheeky race here. The Muswellbrook based filly produced an outstanding effort last start at Scone, beating home the older sprinters and running fast time. That’s what Flamboyant Lass did last start and she will likely start favourite while Alart will start double figure odds, plus Alart ran well in a Silver Slipper.
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Race Five (3:05pm) : Gloaming Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Devil Hawk (Best Odds: $8.00) for me. The close relation to Hawkspur scored a very strong win last Friday in the Spring Stakes (1600m) at Newcastle where he just kept finding under the urging of Tye Angland to win narrowly. He looks a real up and coming stayer and should take some beating here, especially with the rise to 1800m back on his home track.
Big Danger: Tatoosh (Best Odds: $9.00) is the logical threat. He tried his guts out when a close up second to Devil Hawk at Newcastle, and probably would have got the job done in the last couple of strides. He did have the gun sit behind Devil Hawk, so he did have his chance. 1800m won’t be an issue and he is rock hard fit.
Roughie: Really interested to see how Clash Of Clans (Best Odds: $21.00). He sort of reminds me of Hampton Court in the sense that he rarely wins but he busts a gut in trying, and that’s what he did in the Spring Stakes. He looked the winner with about 250m to go, but he just felt the pinch late. He does look a real stayer, so he will be most benefited by the 1800m and he is the knockout hope here, and possibly in the Spring Champion.
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Race Six (3:45pm) : Ronald McDonald House Westmead Golden Pendant 1400m:
Back Me: Really hard to tip against Catkins (Best Odds: $1.55). Like most punters, I was all over Bounding in the Sheraco and off Catkins, but this gun mare just put egg on the face of nearly everyone with a devastating win and improving on her awesome first up record. There should be a little bit of give in the track, fitter and is beautifully suited under the weights scale. The little niggling worry is that she did get rolled as a very short priced favourite in this race last year, but she looks to be in a much better frame of mind now.
Big Danger: Peeping (Best Odds: $15.00) didn’t pull up 100% after running last behind Catkins, so there was excuses for her. Ordered to trial, and she did it last week at Randwick and she just oozed class in winning that trial, albeit narrowly but under triple wraps. I doubt she can beat Catkins, but should fill a place spot.
Roughie: Two Blue (Best Odds: $21.00) is a terrific mare for Kristen Buchanan who is just bursting to win a Stakes race, but just seems to find one better. She ran a close second to Vergara in the Mona Lisa at Wyong before looking home in the Tibbie at Newcastle last Friday, but was nabbed by She’s Clean. Looks the leader again, and with the rail out, leaders won’t be disadvantaged.
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Race Seven (4:25pm) : Leonay Plumbing Shannon Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: God’s In Him (Best Odds: $6.50) on top in a good edition of this race. He ran over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and he was just bolting under Tommy Berry in the straight, and though there wasn’t much left when he came off the bit, he still won well. There should be very good improvement off that, tumbles in weight and he did win second up last time in.
Big Danger: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $9.00) is a definite winning chance here IMO. He was excellent when resuming in the Chelmsford, making up a stack of ground against the bias to finish midfield behind Complacent, and he did produce some of the fastest sectionals of the race. He runs very well on his home track and is a serious threat.
Roughie: Wouldn’t It Be Nice (Best Odds: $26.00) was one of the best runs of the day last Friday at Newcastle when a fast finishing third to Forget in the Cameron Handicap (1500m). He was off a 13 day break and was up to 1500m from 1000m against the likes of Shiraz, Craftiness and Ball Of Muscle, so his effort at Newcastle was outstanding. With that 1500m run under the belt here, and down in the weights again, he can threaten.
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Race Eight (5:05pm) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (85) 1400m:
Back Me: Music Magnate (Best Odds: $4.40) was excellent when resuming behind Fell Swoop, who has since won two Stakes races. Music Magnate was then freshened up and ran over 1200m here where he worked home strongly to finish third to Good Project, who dictated from the front and proved too good. Untried beyond 1200m but the 1400m, based on the last start effort, should be no dramas.
Big Danger: Wine Tales (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over the mile at Randwick a few weeks back and was another victim of the on speed bias and it was hard to make up ground when running a five length seventh to Farolitos, who ran a beauty last weekend. Back on her home track is a plus and she should improve sharply here.
Roughie: Bold Circle (Best Odds: $13.00) comes back to his home track after running a couple of strong races. He ran well without winning last start at Randwicl when fourth to Sadler’s Lake, who has franked the form by winning the Bill Ritchie last weekend. Firmer track will be a big help for his winning chances, and he is rock hard fit as well as being in form.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Catkins
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Press Statement
VALUE: Race Seven Number 8 Wouldn't It Be Nice
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 12, 15
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