26/12/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Christmas Stakes day

Caulfield will play host to an eight race card on Thursday, headlined by the Christmas Stakes (1200m) and Lord Stakes (1700m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Christmas Stakes 🎄: View the Field for the Christmas Stakes

Lord Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Lord Stakes

3 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS) was very good to me when winning at Pakenham so I won’t be dropping off her. Big win against the track pattern first up at Sandown before going to Pakenham just under three weeks ago where she again had to produce a strong finale from the back and again she did in just beating Great Duchess. Think she can win again despite remaining at 1400m.

2 River Jewel (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is back on track for the Ellerton/Zahra stable. Had a let up prior to racing over 1400m at Flemington when afforded a lovely ride by Thornton and looked home until she was bloused right on the peg by a good one in Bumper Blast. Better for that outing I would assume and back to Mares grade, she’s likeable.

1 Something Silver (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a few weeks between runs for the Clinton McDonald team since scoring a pretty solid win at the Valley, largely helped by a beautiful ride from one of the more in form riders in Australia, Jye McNeil. Back on her home track, small field, McNeil remains on, I think she’s certainly the value in the race.

I think 3 St Joeys (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is the best horse in the race. The only knock I have with him is remaining at 1400m. Broke the maiden status first up at Warrnambool in a deep maiden before racing over 1400m at Flemington where you could easily make a case that he should have won when a close up third to Wings Of Pastrami. If this was 1600m, no betting, he wins. Just remaining at 1400m is the question mark.

Third up with the hard 1400m run under the belt looks a really good set up for the Anthony Freedman trained Evening Glory (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS). He ran over 1400m at Flemington last time out and looked the winner when let down, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second to Wings Of Pastrami. Looks suited here and is one of the hardest to beat.

8 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a Shane Fliedner trained gelding that comes through the Wings Of Pastrami race at Flemington and I didn’t mind his effort, getting out to a decent trip for him and finding the line pretty well late in the piece. Does he want further? Perhaps, but should get good cover and be strong at the end.

Leaning towards 8 Lynch Mob (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). He was outstanding against the track pattern two back at Sandown behind Aussie Nugget before going to Pakenham where he just got too far back in the run and tried to make an 800m sustained run but was out of gas 200m from home behind Midas Prince. Should be within range on the turn and strong late.

4 The Black Leopard (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) should eat up 2000m here I feel. His win last time out over 1800m at Sandown was very good. He looked in a bit of trouble at the top of the straight but picked up between runners and surged hard the last few strides to get up and win. Up to 2000m, gate one, Kah on, plenty to like about his chances.

3 Saddle The Sun (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. He hasn’t raced since Ballarat Cup Day over 2600m where he was plain awful behind Creedence, but he was coming off a gut buster at Flemington the start prior. Been given over a month to recover from that outing and back a fair bit in overall depth, he could bounce back for sure.

5 Pinyin (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Wanted for Jim Conlan who was massive when she resumed at Sandown given she was back near last in the run on a day where those on speed/rail were advantaged. Loved the way she found the line late in the piece and got close when third to Beaverbrook. Was scratched from Flemington recently to be saved for this softer option. Hard to beat.

6 Lianne (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win another race for the Ellerton/Zahra stable. Just found the 1400m a bit far two back at Sandown when outgunned by Thousand Wishes. Then went back to 1200m down the Flemington straight and worked home strongly when third to King Of Hastings. She’s got a short, sharp burst of speed, so hopefully she isn’t far away 300m out and can show that change up speed.

7 Sky Call (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Mitch Beer trained mare that was confidently supported when racing at Bendigo last time out and I thought Lane gave her every chance when third to Aphotic, but she was nearer the inside/middle section of the track and the better ground that afternoon was towards the outside fence. She’s racing well and can run a positive race here.

If you were guaranteed that the best version of 11 Beauty (Bet Now: $11.00) turns up, you’d be chips in. Problem being that she hasn’t produced anything near her best since her 3YO days, where she won a Stakes race on Cox Plate Day last year. This is one of the weaker races she has contested throughout her career and didn’t mind the way she went in a recent Tatura trial.

Been a huge fan of 14 Leiter (Bet Now: $3.60) since day one and on form, he should be winning this. Two runs last prep were enormous. Wide throughout and pipped late here first up before racing down the Flemington straight when bumping into a potential Group l class horse in Gytrash. He’s usually a star trialler, but his recent jumpouts have been well below previous efforts. Prefer to watch than back.

5 Strategic Force (Bet Now: $14.00) deserves a crack in town. Symon Wilde has this bloke going very well I think. Had trialled up very well prior to resuming at Warrnambool when a narrow second before going to Werribee when given a 12/10 steer by Currie, diving through between runners to get up and win. Good test here, but sits off a fast speed and should get his chance to run on.

I haven’t been on his back like some, so he hasn’t burned holes in my pocket. That’s why I’m with the enigma that is 2 Odeon (Bet Now: $2.25). He had every chance at Pakenham last start and looked like he would win comfortably, but half turned it up I think when pipped by Future Score. Hard fit now up to 1700m and does like racing at Caulfield. Gets his chance.

If I like Odeon, have to give respect to 4 Future Score (Bet Now: $4.60). He was first up in that race at Pakenham and unwanted in betting but he kept finding under Kersley and was too good for the Ellerton/Zahra runner. Gets Olly on and from the gate, he won’t be far off Odeon in the run. Has to be regarded as a key chance here.

Good test for 1 Gold Fields (Bet Now: $8.50) but he drops a fair way in grade/depth after contesting the Villiers at Randwick when Nash opted to take a sit and I think that just backfired when down the track behind Quackerjack. He is a horse who races best when on speed and getting clear air from the outset, which is what should eventuate here.

Was great to see 6 Ef Troop (Bet Now: $2.35) bounce back into the winners list when winning the Christmas Handicap (1200m) at Morphettville last start. Admittedly, he had the A1 run in transit, but still had to get the job done, and also fend off the swoopers, but did it impressively. If he can continue on from that, he’ll take some beating here.

3 Thermal Current (Bet Now: $16.00) should love the rise to 1200m. He hasn’t raced for a few weeks since contesting a 1000m race at the Valley where they ran along at a strong clip and he was just run off his legs, but worked home strongly late behind Wagner. Been a while since he has raced at 1200m, but is racing as if he’ll appreciate it.

I think back a fair bit in overall depth will suit 1 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $8.00), who has been pretty good throughout this prep, but the last start was a touch flat in the Doveton at Sandown, but keep in mind he was keen in the first half of the race and that left him with nothing left for the straight. Back on a track he loves, he can bounce back.

11 Turn The Tide (Bet Now: $3.90) has to be respected here for the Cindy Alderson camp. Was wide no cover throughout in the Gold Bullion last start at Pakenham but despite that hard run, he kept on and was really good in defeat when fourth to Yulong January. If he can get better luck this time around, he’ll take some beating against this lot.

15 Vongole (Bet Now: $4.40) is a son of Squamosa for the in form Enver Jusufovic camp that was hard in the market when resuming under the lights at the Valley where he sat off a fast speed before being presented wider on the turn with key rival Good Therapy and in a great go to the line, it was the latter that prevailed. Fitter and sitting off a fast speed, Vongole should take some beating.

1 Critical Thnking (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Brent Stanley trained gelding that is going very well I reckon. He comes through the Bumper Blast race at Flemington where he was back near last in the run and never really a winning threat but liked the way he found the line late in the piece. Stack of speed engaged here, so he’ll get his chance to finish over the top.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Odeon

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 5 Pinyin

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 11 Beauty

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 5, 8, 11, 14, 18

Leg Two: 2, 4

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Four: 1, 6, 11, 15

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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