26/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Boxing Day races

An eight race program has been assembled for Morphettville this Boxing Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.

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6 Mighty Moshe (Bet Now: $10.00) on top but this is a rather thin race. Melody Cunningham trains this mare, who was just too bad to be true last time at Terang. She was disinterested for the most part and didn’t come on at all behind Grogan’s Anvil. Putting that down to the Blinkers? They’re off now and she strikes a very winnable race down in the weights.

3 Lucky Flipper (Bet Now: $4.80) was confidently supported when racing at the midweeks at Strathalbyn last time and despite sitting wide no cover on speed, her class came to the fore and she proved too good. Run prior in town behind Miss Jane was a beauty and the form out of that hasn’t been too bad. Gets good weight relief and should be near the speed.

2 Meridian Star (Bet Now: $4.60) would bolt this race in if we knew she’d turn up with her A game. She’s been terribly disappointing in recent times, her latest run at Mornington when beating one runner home, albeit just two lengths from the winner. IMO I’d love to see the tactics be to run her along, don’t hold her up and see if that’ll spark improvement. Best horse in the race on overall form.

Stuart Gower doesn’t mind setting one up for a first up win so I’m going to take a chance on 2 Bar Gem (Bet Now: $19.00). This bloke was kept very safe in betting when debuting on the Parks track back in early August but did too much work on speed and dropped out behind Chevite. Offside Blinker off, Winkers off, good gate, good spell…he’s a fascinating runner.

5 Calipari (Bet Now: $2.60) is a former Snowden youngster that resumed against benchmark three year olds here just over two weeks ago and I thought his effort in defeat was quite good considering he burnt alot of petrol tickets to hold the lead. Back to this level, he should have little trouble finding the front and that form does read well for a tricky/even maiden.

9 Papalet (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Team Jolly trained gelding who did bugger all first up behind Gotta Be Gold before running a much improved race at the Twilight meeting here when fourth to the well above average looking Poet’s Landing. Now that he’s found form, he could go on with it, and this race doesn’t appear to be strong when it comes to depth.

5 Gennikay (Bet Now: $2.90) looks the one. Phillip Stokes trains this daughter of Shamus Award, who debuted on the Parks track back in early August and was outstanding in defeat after settling last when second to Chevite. She was tardy away in the trial but gathered herself and won the trial impressively on the line. She’s tricky re barriers, but no denying her engine is very good.

13 Sophina Diva (Bet Now: $4.60) is an Akeed Mofeed filly for Team Jolly having her first start. She trialled on December 10 on the Parks track and looked to move quite well to the eye when second to Poet’s Landing, who of course bolted up here when he debuted. Form out of that reads very well, she’s got the ideal draw and the stable first up/debut this season have been great.

2 Bottle And Bird (Bet Now: $5.50) is the unknown. Will Clarken trains this son of Pluck, who is on debut after finishing midfield in his trial on the Parks track behind Gennikay. He was asked for a little bit of effort and was okay. Stack of gear goes on for the debut, which tells me there might be a bit of intent to run well first up. I’d keep an eye on the market and what it does.

The set up here looks ideal for the Sue Murphy trained 4 Barood (Bet Now: $4.60). Hasn’t raced since Bendigo Cup Day in a sprint there where he had no luck at all in a race won by Carlingford. Form out of that has been good via Nariko. Barood has been nominated a couple of times since but yet to accept til now, so I’m reading between the lines he’s ready to go.

3 Ascendance (Bet Now: $3.90) is an absolute beauty for the Dion Kock stable who has been great this time in. Tough on speed winner two back before finding Zalmona too good last time out here. Looks to lead these comfortably to the eye and if he can dominate from the front, he’s a tough bugger to get past and will look the winner at some stage I’m sure.

7 Classy Jack (Bet Now: $10.00) is the rank outsider and I think he’s value. There are a negative or two you could say about the most of these, he included, but double figures I could entertain. Ran on Saturday and was far from disgraced I thought when fifth to Quiddick. Gets a significant weight drop for this, should be on speed and giving his all as he usually does.

Tricky maiden but on top is 11 Surreal Image (Bet Now: $4.80) for the Jolly stable. Son of Akeed Mofeed who resumed at Gawler and battled away pretty well in defeat behind dominant winner Chucky. The two runs last prep were very good so his overall form reads pretty much superior to this lot. Just creating a little pattern of not wanting to win, but on form, is the one to beat.

13 Mirusia (Bet Now: $3.20)  looks one of the hardest to beat for Melody Cunningham. This mare has had two runs back from a break, both at Terang. Resumed with a second to the progressive Crimson Tears, who has won again, before racing there again and running a narrow second to Truly Brook. Bursting to win a maiden and I think she gets a great chance here.

4 Smoke (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Ryan Balfour trained four year old who was unwanted in betting when making his debut at Gawler but despite having no friends in the market, he ran a beauty in defeat when a narrow second to Panzer Princess. Bigger track looks ideal for this horse, looks to have good ability…bit of depth to this maiden, but I wouldn’t put a line through him.

2 Banstead (Bet Now: $4.00) for me. Richard Laming trains this former kiwi, who has had a few runs in Australia, the latest over the Cranbourne mile where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but Smart Talk nabbed him on the peg. Up to 1800m is a little query, but should lead these for fun and will give a great sight if allowed to get a cheap furlong or two.

7 Real Thinker (Bet Now: $6.00) looked a good thing on paper when racing in a Bordertown maiden last Sunday and from the home turn onwards, he was always going to win. It was just a matter of how far. The final margin was nearly six lengths. Has showed good ability since day one and now he’s got a confidence boosting maiden win out of the way, he could go on with it.

4 Autmed (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Dan Shepherd trained gelding who has placed in both runs this time in. Ran at Gawler last time where I thought he’d go close to winning but on face value, he was a tad plain when third to Set To Cruise. In saying that, he is a two time third up winner and draws a lovely gate in a thin race so he gets respect for mine.

It looks a case of any price for 6 Handsome Return (Bet Now: $1.90). Good thing for mine. 2/2 since arriving from New Zealand, the latest coming last Saturday at Gawler (Metro) where he was given a 12/10 steer from Jamie Kah and it was a rather painless watch if you were on. Can only see upside with him, another good draw to use for Jamie Kah…should be winning.

12 El Desperado (Bet Now: $7.50) is a stablemate of Handsome Return who ran second to him in that Gawler race mentioned above. He came from the back and did make ground but was safely held by Handsome Return. The positive for El Desperado is that he gets a 4kg weight swing for a 1.3L defeat. On that theory, he can turn the tables. On the replay, I doubt it.

4 Bramfield (Bet Now: $16.00) deserves a crack in town for Darryl Carrison. This four year old mare has simply been too good for them at home in Port Lincoln, winning her last two over 1390m in impressive fashion from off the pace. Just has to stretch it to the mile for the first time but the signs are there that the 1600m will be fine for her. Outside claims with luck in running.

11 Tiara Star (Bet Now: $2.40) looks the one to beat if she jumps clean. She didn’t jump clean first up here at the Friday twilight meeting and cost herself the win, but produced some great late splits in defeat. If she can jump clean and settle in the first half a dozen or so, I think she’ll be too good for this lot and is one of the better bets on the program.

7 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Shayne Cahill trained gelding who is racing really well at the moment but can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran at Gawler (Metro) last Saturday where he settled off the pace and tried hard but had no answers to the brilliance produced by Over And Above. Should get three wide cover from the draw and launch at them late.

5 Hinchin Miss (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare who has always shown decent promise since day one but hasn’t quite gone on with it. That may change this time in. Thought she toughed it out well to win first up at Balaklava under Gary Lo and defy a little betting drift. Think she’ll take good improvement from that and with the scratchings, the draw isn’t bad.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 Handsome Return

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Tiara Star

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 2 Bar Gem

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 7, 11, 13

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 5, 7, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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