26/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Winterbottom Stakes day

4 Featherweight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Dan Morton trained gelding that resumed over this track/distance a few weeks ago where he was given a 12/10 steer by Chris Parnham getting onto the back of Above The Peg on the turn and launched late to win impressively in a nice return. You’d think with natural improvement, he’s the one to beat.

7 Revitup (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looked a 1000m speedy squib as a juvenile but then she resumed over 1200m in the Placid Ark and she ran an absolute beauty on speed when second to My Bella Mae, who I think is one of the leading chances in the Winterbottom so it has to be good form for this.

Fitter and up to 1200m are a couple of ticks for 2 Outrageous (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He ran in the Colonel Reeves off a break when outclassed on paper and ran accordingly behind This’ll Testya. Much better suited at this level and while I doubt he wins, he can pinch a first four spot.

Back to 1000m should see 11 Rumour Says (Bet Now:  $SP.00) bounce back into the winners list. She ran in the Placid Ark over 1200m last time and just felt the pinch late behind My Bella Mae, who I think is a leading contender in the Winterbottom. Soft gate and back to five furlongs, she’s the one to beat.

1 Moi Choux (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another of these cast offs that has found a new lease on life under Summer Dickson. Arrogant first up win at Northam in the first run for the new stable and ran pretty good time in doing. Gets a suck run from the inside draw and does have a touch of quality.

5 Olga Luisa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and run well. She ran last Saturday where she did too much work to find a spot on speed and the early burn just told at the end behind Beads. With a clean jump, I think she finds the front and she’s a hard horse to get past sometimes when leading.

2 Kohli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) finds it hard to greet the judge but I think a good gate and W Pike aboard is enough for him to break a run of outs. He tried his guts out last time at Albany and just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Sneaky Fox. Gets a much better set up than that horse here and for mine has more room for improvement.

8 Mr Causeway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He was an eye catcher behind Sneaky Fox fresh before going to 1200m where they rode him warm and he didn’t finish the race off at all. I reckon first up when ridden with a sit is the way to ride him and he gets D Oliver to steer. Definite winning hope.

13 Bolshoi Gal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. Four weeks between runs since attempting to lead throughout at Kalgoorlie when giving a decent sight and fought on pretty well when third to Pedal Power. Tends to save her best for Kalgoorlie, but with her racing style, she’ll give a sight.

Landed with 11 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She resumes, having not raced since August 6 when running third in a 2200m race on testing ground at Belmont to Our Norman. Trialled up well at Lark Hill and although 1400m is short of her best, she has the quality to prove hard to beat.

4 Brooklyn Pier (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very consistent animal that is knocking on the door to win. He ran three weeks ago at this track/distance when trying his guts out to,wear down Big Sceen but couldn’t quite get there. He’s the one that is hard fit and in form so he appeals.

3 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday when doing plenty of work to land on speed and I reckon that early burn just told late behind a talented mare, Alsephina. D Oliver on, drawn better, he can run a much improved race.

I think a jockey upgrade can see big improvement from 6 Success Play (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and I thought it was a poor ride from Dhurun. Didn’t use the inside gate to advantage, got back and was never a factor behind Dadirra. Brad Parnham aboard, if the gate is used to advantage, he’s a big improver.

9 Halatorian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1400m but has a soft gate and W Pike aboard. He did run well two back at this track/distance before going to 1200m at Belmont where he got into a tricky spot from the gate and was solid in defeat. Much better set up this time around, he commands respect.

10 Dadirra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is a last start winner and has a kind map in her corner. Got the beaut run in transit two weeks back at this track/distance and in a driving go, she finished best to win nicely. More depth here, but she’s one of the leading contenders.

Straight to Stakes grade off a debut maiden win six days ago is a very interesting set up with 6 China Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he is the one with enormous upside and I think he goes pretty good. The win came at Belmont over 1300m and I thought the further the race went, the better he got and was dominant. He meets a few here that are looking for the paddock and maps to get a sweet trip just off the speed.

If last Saturday hasn’t busted 2 Saintorio (Bet Now:  $SP.00), surely he’ll go close. He was wide throughout in the WA Guineas and did a remarkable job to stick on like he did when third to Amelia’s Jewel. 1600m sees him right out so back to 1400m is ideal. If he’s got petrol left in the tank, he can certainly win this.

11 Madame Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. Lot of quality about her finale when a debut winner here on Cup Day. She then went to Northam when seemingly a moral on paper but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second. She draws to settle closer in the run and does have the finish to be dangerous.

It has been a lean Carnival to date for Bob Peters and would want a feature race win. I think 14 Pure Devotion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can take this out and then stamp herself as #1 seed for the Perth Cup. She really caught the eye two weeks ago in the Luckgray when fourth to Buster Bash after getting back in a race shape not suited for her. 2100m looks ideal, Pike sticks and has good upside.

4 Utgard Loki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Resumed and needed the run in the Northam Cup. He then went to the Luckygray and was solid in defeat behind Buster Bash. Set for the Perth Cup and you’d like to think he is just about ready to go now.

7 Black Shadow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another with eyes on the Perth Cup, so while I doubt he wins, he can pinch a first four spot. He resumed in the Luckygray where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Buster Bash. Better for the run, up to a more suitable trip, he’s an improver.

I am really surprised there is $5+ available for 1 Rothfire (Bet Now:  $SP.00). You look at his form. Second in the Manikato, beaten under two lengths in the Champions Sprint, plus his Winter Carnival form, which is A1…he gets run of the race from the draw and really, I think he should be more a $2.50 chance. He has a bit on these IMO.

Seriously respecting 16 My Bella Mae (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Beware the unbeaten horse, especially a filly with only 51.5kg on her back. Arrogant win in the Placid Ark and the clock backed it up, running good time. I think she will need luck from the gate, but if she gets it, I think she will dun a mighty race.

I reckon 1200m sees 13 Miss Conteki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) right out but the gate is perfect for her. She can get three/four wide cover, get a drag into the race and launch. Outstanding effort in the Colonel Reeves two weeks back and she will be savaging the line late with the right trip. A win wouldn’t shock.

Looks a lovely race for 2 Winning Partner (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to get a win on the board. Three weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Flemington where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off. Back a fair bit in depth, he appeals big time.

8 Billy Ray (Bet Now:  $SP.00) I like back in trip. Last couple of runs have come over further, potentially with an eye towards the Perth Cup but he just didn’t run the the longer trips out, the latest being in the Luckygray two weeks ago behind all the way winner Buster Bash. Back to the mile, he appeals.

7 Son Of Bacchus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back up in trip. Outclassed in the Northam Cup, which put pay to any Railway hopes. He then came back to 1400m here and ran a much improved race behind Big Screen. Like him back up to the mile and he gets a big jockey upgrade.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Pure Devotion

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Rothfire

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 2 Winning Partner

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 11

Leg Two: 14

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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