26/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Australia Day Cup day

Australia Day racing in Sydney heads to Warwick Farm for Australia Day Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Australia Day Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Australia Day Cup

Market will be interesting with 6 Outlawed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) given she is first up and is drawn tricky. But ability wise, I think she has a bit on these. She debuted at Hawkesbury back in September at Hawkesbury and was good in defeat after doing a bit of work, just pipped late bu Dashing Legend, who is city class and Stakes placed, so that form clearly reads well for this and the two trials have been encouraging.

4 Coriolis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to break the maiden tag. Game second at Randwick on Boxing Day before going to Canterbury where she was just off the speed throughout and albeit was held up for a few strides, she had her chance and was a tad on the plain side behind Capitol Queen. Firmer footing looks ideal and the depth, as a whole, isn’t overly deep.

7 Snitcat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race. She resumed in the Magic Millions Maiden when wide no cover on speed for the trip and that hard run told, finishing down the track behind Silentstar. She has always shown talent since day one but seems to find one or two better. Not sure I could back her to win but a must for exotics.

11 Venelope (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way ticket in what looks a winnable maiden. Maher/Eustace trained filly that debuted over 1200m at Gosford where she got back and didn’t seem to handle the tight track but once she balanced up, she rocketed to the line late in the piece to finish third. Very good debut and up to 1400m, run under the belt, I think near double figures and better is a price worthy of a speck.

9 The Englishman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a big improver here for Team Snowden. Market took a set against him when resuming at this track/distance but despite that, he ran really well and fought hard after sitting on speed, finishing fourth to all the way winner Moscow Night. Better for the run, he should slide on speed once again and prove hard to beat.

5 Mr Wallace (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back up to 1400m. He was 1350m back to 1200m in the Magic Millions Maiden last time where he had every chance it seemed but that said, he wasn’t beaten far behind Silenstar. He won the 1350m race two back but lost it on protest so 1400m is fine and should lob into a lovely spot from the gate.

4 Glowing Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been well placed in recent times, winning three on the bounce, but she is getting better as the class/depth rise increases. Ran over 1550m at Canterbury on New Years Day where I loved the way she dug in late when required under Avdulla, surging hard late to nab stablemate Semana. Warwick Farm mile should be fine for her and is hard to beat for sure against these.

10 Gleefilly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive filly that appears hard to beat but gee she is on the short side. That said, it was a dominant and somewhat arrogant maiden win at Wyong last time where she was absolutely trucking under Penza and once she pushed the button, she went through her gears and gapped her rivals. Has good room for improvement and gets J Mac. Just the price is the negative.

6 Ausbred Rising Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Brad Widdup trained three year old that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since December 17 when an electric debut winner at Newcastle on the Beaumont track, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display. Tick over trial was okay and on breeding, plus the debut win, 1600m is ideal. Right in the mix.

All things being equal, 10 Junqueira (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should do a number on these. John O’Shea trained filly that looked a moral when racing at the Gold Coast and under a 12/10 from J Mac, she was miles too good for them in a dominant display, beating Busting, who won on Saturday, so the form has been ticked off, she maps to do no work and third up, she should be at peak fitness.

8 Bitcoin Baby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned well. Strong first up winner here before going to a solid race at Rosehill where she was far from disgraced behind Kir Royale in a race where I am sure future winners will come out of it. Tricky draw and taking on a good filly, so not sure she wins all things being equal, but if she is off her game, then Bitcoin Baby could well be the pony.

4 Not Another Reiby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned well. Joe Pride trains this guy, who resumed over 1000m here and I thought did a pretty good job from a spot back in the field, finishing off nicely to run fourth to a progressive type, Command Approved. Not sure he can beat the favourite, but should run well all the same and is a must for multiples.

10 Cadetship (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Chris Waller trained three year old that defied a notable betting drift to win fresh at Newcastle on the Beaumont track before going to Warwick Farm where he kept finding the line and was good in defeat when a narrow second to Ka Bling. Hard fit now and with a tad more positivity re the ride, he’ll be hard to hold out.

4 Regal Pom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ready to win I feel. Son of Press Statement for Annabel Neasham that has been strong in two runs back from a spell. Caught the eye fresh at Randwick before going to Rosehill where he was held up at a crucial stage. He couldn’t get a chance to build momentum and can easily make a case to say he goes close to winning. Clear air at the right time, he can win.

5 Bon Vavont (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a James Cummings trained four year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the Autumn Carnival last year where he was heading down the Derby path but couldn’t quite measure up and ended the prep with a down the track effort in the Frank Packer. Couple of trials to get ready for the return and although 1200m is short of his best, he has a touch of quality.

I am hoping gate one is okay for 6 Zain’s Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) because she is a mare who can get back and charge late. Resumed with a big win at Randwick on Boxing Day, aided by a peach from Schiller. She then went to this track/distance where she got a fair way out of her ground but charged to the line late in the piece when a close up fifth to Command Approved. If the inside gate is okay, she’s the one to beat.

The best version of 4 Party For One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would certainly do a number on this lot. She hasn’t raced since Derby Day at Rosehill where she got back to near last in the run and was good late in the piece behind Plymstock, a Stakes performer. Home track advantage and can sprint well fresh. With this camp, watch the market and see what it does with her.

11 Unwritten (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack in town the way he has come back. 2/2 this time in, spanking them fresh at Nowra before going to Muswellbrook where he defied a notable betting drift, giving them a start and a beating from the back in such an impressive win. Yet to really measure up in town previously but the way he’s going at the moment, he’s in with a shout.

9 Outlandos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for John Sargent and appears really hard to beat against this lot. The runs in Sydney suggested a win was near and he ran right up to that last week at the Gold Coast in the Suzbero, working home with real purpose late in the piece behind Sky Lab. He’ll eat up 2400m, strong late, gee he looks hard to beat in what looks a winnable race.

11 Military Mission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. He ran in the January Cup a few weeks back at Rosehill where he was ridden with a sit and I thought worked to the line pretty well late in the piece, finishing close up behind Mission Phoenix in a game effort. I do think he races best when he is allowed to roll on speed, like he was when winning the Taree Cup, so he can take this out.

10 Raging Bull (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at a price. He resumed at Rosehill a few weeks back where he was specked at a price but the sit/sprint set up wasn’t to his liking and he battled late behind Vrenelli. Just one soft trial leading into that run so there should be good room for improvement…1400m to 2400m is such an interesting set up but weird and whacky is in the wheelhouse of David Payne.

10 Beirut Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the get out. Market said she was a moral to break the maiden tag two back in a Beaumont Newcastle maiden and duly saluted. She then went to Canterbury and took a while to wind into her work but found and just missed out on the win when a narrow second to a progressive type, Super Chilled. That was 1550m so back to 1400m I like, should slide forward and prove hard to beat.

8 Arranmore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found that winning groove again so she commands respect. Clear air was the key to her and she got it last time out here, with Tommy Berry easing her back, peeling wide and letting down with purpose to get the job done. Gets a big jockey upgrade with J Mac on and should get three wide cover, launching late.

7 Stellar Performer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Sebring for Brad Widdup that resumes. She hasn’t raced since September in a lone run for the prep when far from disgraced at Rosehill behind Arbitration. Not really a noted fresh horse but her two trials have been more than encouraging and her best is certainly good enough to be more than competitive here.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 10 Junqueira

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Zain’s Girl

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Outlandos

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 10

Leg Two: 4, 6

Leg Three: 1, 9, 10, 11, 13

Leg Four: 7, 8, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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