A heat of the Winter Championship highlights what should be a really solid program of racing. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:40) : Bay And Ranges Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Curvature (Bet Now: $6.00) had really built up a handy record in four runs without winning before going to the Geelong Synthetic where he started pretty short odds and justified that short quote with a pretty cosy win. The form around the placegetters in that race includes Artie Dee Two, an impressive winner last Saturday, so that formline reads well and the Flemington 1400m just looks as though it’ll suit this horse perfectly.
Big Danger: 12 Kenedna (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through a race at Sandown where she sat back in the run and tried hard but was simply no match for the impressive winner Inspired Estelle. Bit more depth here, but the claim for Jake Bayliss helps and she’s hard fit.
Roughie: 7 Fast ‘N’ Rolling (Bet Now: $21.00) ran on the Parks track at Morphettville last time out where he sat wide throughout yet stuck to the task pretty well I thought when running third to Something More. The debut run at Cranbourne was super also, so the talent is there, and now he is on his home track and up to 1400m, which should suit.
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Race Two (12:15) : Central Region Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Telopea (Bet Now: $2.40) just picks herself here IMO. She nearly got the job done last time out at Sandown but was bloused late by Sea Spray in a close photo finish. Meets the winner 10kg better off here…how she won’t turn the tables will leave me head scratching. Looks the one.
Big Danger: 6 Niminypiminy (Bet Now: $4.20) ran at Sandown three weeks ago where she loomed to win the race when she burst between runners, but ended up having to settle for second to Clemency, who of course has franked the form from last weekend. She should be at peak fitness now and Williams jumps on.
Roughie: 3 Nadeem Lass (Bet Now: $21.00) ran at Sandown three weeks back where she battled on okay late behind impressive winner Forgeress. Gets down to the minimum now, and I think the small field will really suit her.
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Race Three (12:50) : Gippsland Region Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 The Rumour File (Bet Now: $15.00) is on the back back up after racing over 1800m here a fortnight back where he worked to the line nicely late when fifth to Leveraction. He will love getting back in trip, and he looks ready to show something here.
Big Danger: 11 Landslide (Bet Now: $5.50) was given a beaut on speed steer from Mick Dee to get the job done impressively last time out at Sale, gripping on to beat Mr Pago, who he meets pretty much at the same weights, but Oliver jumps on now, which is a tick.
Roughie: 10 Mr Pago (Bet Now: $12.00) tried his guts out in that race mentioned above, but had to settle for a close second to Landslide in a deceptive finish. With luck, he can turn the tables for sure, and jockey Steve Baster is riding very well at the moment.
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Race Four (13:28) : Goulburn Valley Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Spieth (Bet Now: $2.50) was dominant last time out at Rosehill where he showed a brilliant turn of foot despite the hefty impost. He was touted to run in a Stakes race at Randwick fortnight back, but was held back and remains taking on his own age. Should take some beating.
Big Danger: 5 Chase The Horizon (Bet Now: $9.00) was an impressive first up winner at Ballarat before racing down the straight here over 1000m a fortnight back where he was pretty good in defeat behind Rich Charm. Third up now, so he should be at peak fitness, and the extra 100m will be a big tick IMO.
Roughie: 9 Lord Von Costa (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very good galloper who is now having his first run for Stephen Brown after formerly being with Graham Hulm. He resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago and looked the winner when he pounced to the lead with about 150m to go, but he was bloused late by Rich Charm. That experience would have done him the world of good, and now trained on the track, he would have done a bit of work down the straight to help him get more familiar with it. Looks a massive threat for me.
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Race Five (14:05) : Brian Beattie Handicap 1400m:
Big Danger: 1 Jacquinot Bay (Bet Now: $4.00) was given a great ride by Mick Walker to get the job done here first up, sitting off speed and waiting for as long as possible before letting him down to get the job done. Second up record isn’t as dynamic, but the small field should offset that.
Big Danger: 5 By The Grace (Bet Now: $4.20) ran third to Jacquinot Bay in that race mentioned above and his effort was very good from the back. Gets a 2kg weight swing on that horse here and draws to get a sweet trip off the speed. Massive threat.
Roughie: The small field should really suit 3 She’s Clean (Bet Now: $6.50). She was very disappointing last time out in that Jacquinot Bay race after receiving every chance I thought. Hard to follow and trust, but the small field is right up her alley.
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Race Six (14:45) : Western Otway Handicap 1600m:
Roughie: 7 Payroll (Bet Now: $6.00) ran third to Euro Angel in that race mentioned above and her effort was pretty solid. She got held up a touch early on in the straight but was out in plenty of time. Beaten 3.5L, and the winner was first up, so I doubt she can turn the tables, but she should run well regardless and third up, she should be at her peak.
Big Danger: 11 Lunar Spin (Bet Now: $13.00) ran over the mile at Sandown last time out and worked to the line with purpose when running fourth to War Legend. Onto his home track, and the Flemington looks as though it’ll really suit this Godolphin galloper.
Roughie: 14 Sir Sagamore (Bet Now: $19.00) is a bit of a non winner, but there is no denying she is a trier. She ran over 1400m at Sale last time out and closed off strongly late when a close up fifth to Red Banner. Back on her home track and draws to sit with cover and ambush.
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Race Seven (15:25) : David Bourke Provincial Plate (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Aurum Spirit (Bet Now: $11.00) has been fabulous in his last two starts, both here. He was the lone backmarker to make up ground two back behind Mihany before not being in the best ground when sixth to Bradman. Back up to the mile is a definite advantage for him, and now he gets some really good weight relief. I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 5 Award Of Merit (Bet Now: $3.50) was given a lovely ride in that race from Craig Williams to get the job done last time out during the Carnival at Morphettville. The form prior was very good and given that was his first run in over three weeks, there would have been upside, but a recent trial win, which was impressive, should sharpen him right up.
Roughie: 2 Royal Rapture (Bet Now: $3.80) did a power of work last start at Sandown to eventually sit on speed and for a few strides he looked the winner, but he couldn’t hold out the finishing burst of Nesbo, who failed with excuses last weekend. Draws better now, Rawiller steers…hard to beat.
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Race Eight (16:05) : Wimmera & Murray Mallee Handicap 2520m:
Back Me: 2 Crafty Cruiser (Bet Now: $27.00) is a grand campaigner for Bryce Stanaway who comes here after racing last weekend at the Valley where the bias was completely against him behind Longeron. He loves racing at Flemington and he should be getting fitter now.
Roughie: 11 Streaming By (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over 2400m at Sandown last Wednesday and produced a lovely turn of foot from off the tempo to win impressively. He has upside and is the one with fresh legs, so I’ll respect him enormously here.
Big Danger: 5 Falago (Bet Now: $7.50) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he tried his heart out, but he couldn’t quite reel in Araldo Junior, who had it too good on speed and kicked strongly. This bloke is racing in great heart at the moment and will be around the finish again.
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Race Nine (16:40) : Midwest Bellarine Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Hard Romp (Bet Now: $15.00) looks a safe way to go. He is a straight track specialist who comes here through the General Truce race here a fortnight back where he tried but was no match for the veteran. He is drawn to be on speed and out of trouble, and the 3kg claim for Ben Thompson is a big help.
Big Danger: 2 Alberto Magic (Bet Now: $8.00) was having his first run for Mick Price in that same race where the trainer conceded he’d be surprised if he ran top three. Well he did run third, and closed off strongly. Plenty of upside and Dee retains the ride.
Roughie: 1 Reldas (Bet Now: $10.00) ran sixth in the race and he really had no chance given he was carrying 60kg and had to cut back to the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be down the straight. Drawn to be near the speed and with weight relief and added fitness, he can bounce back.
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BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Spieth
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Telopea
VALUE: Race Eight Number 2 Crafty Cruiser
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 14
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 15
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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