Anzac Day in Melbourne for 2016 will focus in on Flemington for an eight race card, where the St Leger (2800m) highlights the program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:00) : The Euroa VCs Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 6 Miss Vista (Best Odds: $2.00) is best known at the moment of looking identical to Apache Cat, but she will be known eventually as a very good filly. She debuted at Ballarat and just absolutely brained them winning by nearly six under a hold. Harder here, and $2.05 seems very short, but she does deserve to be on top.
Big Danger: 8 Saraswati (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here for Saab Hassan after just one run back in February, which resulted in a super win at Kyneton after sitting three deep no cover throughout. Three winners have come out of the race, and Williams is booked, so check and see if there is a market push.
Roughie: 5 Scandimania (Best Odds: $41.00) has been given a five week freshen up since failing at the Valley behind Group l performer Manhattan Blues. Stable is having a really good run at the moment and she maps to get the gun sit behind Miss Vista.
Race Two (13:35) : Anzac Day Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Pyx Chamber (Best Odds: $5.00) finally broke his maiden status in impressive fashion last time out at Sandown, sitting out the back before peeling out and letting down powerfully. Riding him with a sit is the key and now his confidence is up, he can go on with it.
Big Danger: 3 Biased Witness (Best Odds: $3.00) was unlucky not to win on debut at Echuca before franking that with a spank job on the Pakenham Synthetic next start. Looks to have enormous upside and the 1400m will be no issue.
Roughie: 10 Smart As You Think (Best Odds: $8.00) closed off strongly on debut at Sandown behind Pyx Chamber in what I thought was a really good effort. She’ll eat up the 1400m here at Flemington and just has enormous upside.
Race Three (14:10) : William Newton VC Handicap (84) 1610m:
Back Me: 1 Hijack Hussy (Best Odds: $4.00) isn’t one of my horses, but gee this does look her race. She worked home powerfully last time out at Sandown over 1600m when running second to Nevis. Back to the mares grade now, Childs takes 2kg off, draws well…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 9 Loveitt (Best Odds: $6.50) ran at Sandown a couple of weeks ago and let down strongly from near last to grab victory in the last few strides and was powerful through the line. Flemington mile will be no issue and Williams takes over.
Roughie: 2 Written (Best Odds: $14.00) is a talented mare for Mick Kent who just went too hard last Saturday at Caulfield when running fourth to Scarlet Billows in a race which looked stronger than this. Draws to get the good cart over from Marli Magic and Long Face Grace, and she does like racing at Flemington.
Race Four (14:50) : Hugo Throssell VC Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Turbo Miss (Best Odds: $4.80) was given a beaut steer from Harry Coffey to win last time out at Sandown, eventually wearing down game leader Claudia Jean. Harder here and drawn wide, but the claim for Ben Allen is a big help and only needs cover to be a major contender.
Big Danger: 11 Oxbow (Best Odds: $8.50) isn’t the best horse in the race but he certainly might be the toughest. He looked beaten last time out at Pakenham but he just kept finding under riding and got the win. He’ll be on speed again and just keep whacking away all day.
Roughie: 13 Iron Boss (Best Odds: $7.50) is the interesting runner. He is the best horse in the race but is best suited over further. Probably heading towards Queensland and the Derby up there, so whatever he does here he will improve on but a recent jump out here was very encouraging.
Race Five (15:25) : VRC St Leger 2800m:
Back Me: 7 Joueur (Best Odds: $9.00) on top for me in a pretty good edition of the St Leger. This James Cummings trained galloper comes here off the back of a strong win over 2600m at Gosford against the older horses, sitting on speed and booting clear to win comfortably. Bigger track looks ideal and Ollie takes over.
Big Danger: 1 Etymology (Best Odds: $2.00) was one of the better runs of the beaten brigade in the Australian Derby (2400m), making up ground from the back to run fifth to Tavago. He has been up for a while, but is racing very well and generally the better class horses win this race, and his ratings are far superior and is at set weights.
Roughie: 12 Meru (Best Odds: $14.00) is an eight start maiden but there is a bit to like about her. This Pat Carey trained filly come here off the back of a solid third behind Charlevoix in the Galilee Final (2400m) at Sandown. Pat Carey knows what to do with stayers and this girl will have no trouble with the 2800m.
Race Six (16:00) : Anzac Cup 2530m:
Back Me: 1 Big Memory (Best Odds: $2.90) looked home last time out in the Mornington Cup (2400m) but was bloused right on the peg by Berisha in a thrilling finish. He was only third up there, so there should be good upside and he races very well at Flemington.
Big Danger: 8 High Church (Best Odds: $4.80) comes here off the back of a good win over 2500m at Morphettville, aided by a lovely on speed steer from Katelyn Mallyon, who remains on. He’ll lead, run along and give them something to think about.
Roughie: 11 Red Fella (Best Odds: $51.00) ran sixth behind High Church in that race mentioned above and just forget he went around given he just pulled his head off and had nothing left for the straight. Last time he was at Flemington, he wasn’t far off Mujadale in the Bagot, so he can definitely threaten here.
Race Seven (16:35) : Flt Lt Peter Armytage Handicap 1700m:
Back Me: 7 Petrology (Best Odds: $5.50) worked home really strongly last time out over the mile at Sandown, running fifth to Petrology in a race where horses on speed dominated. He has teased for a long time, but this isn’t a strong race and Dwayne Dunn rides.
Big Danger: 1 Nevis (Best Odds: $2.80) is in ripping form at the moment, winning his last two over the mile, starting off at Bendigo before getting it down at Sandown. Harder here at the Flemington 1700m, and is drawn terribly, but it’s hard to knock his form lines.
Roughie: 11 Minnie Downs (Best Odds: $51.00) might have only finished second last behind She’s Miss Divine last time out at at Sandown, but looking at her after the line, she was in front not long after. That tells me she will eat up the track and trip here, Newitt rides her well and the last time she was at Flemington, she was two lengths off La Passe in a Group ll.
Race Eight (17:10) : Phillip Schuler Handicap (84) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Sweet As Bro (Best Odds: $51.00) was specked at odds here first up when running third to We’ve Got This before being disappointing behind Tried And Tired over 1400m here. Good freshen up after that and back down the straight, he can be a sharp improver at odds, and as a betting proposition, I’m happy to have him each way. Also include 8 Zupacharged.
Big Danger: 7 Supido (Best Odds: $2.20) is a talented four year old was outstanding when resuming here before going to the Valley over 1200m and bolting up against some handy types. He had been nominated for many races, including the Newmarket, but has been kept fresh and comes here, and the stable is having a really good run at the moment, so he should take some beating.
Roughie: 14 Alias (Best Odds: $41.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Joe Pride but is now with Daniel Bowman. He is near unbeatable on a wet track, so any rain will help, and Bowman has had a great run with these former Joe Pride runners eg Society Man. Watch the market.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Big Memory
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Pyx Chamber
VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Sweet As Bro
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 15
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 2.97% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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