A really good card of racing has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday, with a couple of blacktype events on the program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:16) : Selangor Turf Club Trophy (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: 6 Let’s Twist (Best Odds: $6.00) for me here in a really thin staying contest. He ran over this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back where he sat on speed and stuck on really well in defeat when third to Blustery. Keep in mind he was down to run on Wednesday but was scratched and instead runs here. Stable confidence perhaps…or the fact this is a poor race.
Big Danger: 4 Eleven Seconds (Best Odds: $2.80) was favourite when racing over this track/distance three weeks ago. He had to drag the field up to the tearaway leader and by the time he reached it, he was gassed and was nabbed late by Tarquin Shadow. He does get a 1.5kg weight swing on that, so I’m confident he can turn the tables here. Key threat.
Long Shot: 8 Toppa Dawozza (Best Odds: $7.50) is an absolute nightmare to follow, but one day he will win one of these staying races, and he does find a very winnable race here. Ran fifth behind Tarquin Shadow in that race mentioned above where he got back in the run and just plugged away. If he brings his best, he’d beat them up.
Race Two (15:58) : Penang Turf Club Trophy 1100m:
Back Me: 4 You Am I (Best Odds: $4.80) was heavily backed when debuting here three weeks ago where he was given a sweet steer off the pace and surged hard late but was no match on the line for Kentoo, who ran okay in the Magic Millions. Two trials since have been very good and he strikes a very winnable race here.
Big Danger: 2 Riasc (Best Odds: $3.50) was hard in the market when resuming in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra where he got back to around midfield in the run before getting slightly held up in the straight. Got clear and hit the line strongly but did seem to run out of condition. Should come on from that and rates highly for me here.
Long Shot: 10 Expressella (Best Odds: $4.60) is the big watch here. Filly on debut for the Andrews camp who looked okay at the trials before trialling last Tuesday where she bolted up by over five lengths and ran time. Any inkling of that here, and she will be in this race right up to ears. Market watch for sure.
Race Three (16:38) : Yellowglen Handicap (1MW) 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Presentatie (Best Odds: $6.00) on top for me here, but with no confidence. Hasn’t fired in six runs down under since coming over from New Zealand, and has been disappointing in two runs this prep, the latest coming five weeks back over 1200m here behind Shady Grey. Hopefully the break between runs does her the world of good. Taking the gamble with her.
Big Danger: 1 Conseated (Best Odds: $4.00) is a handy galloper that resumes for the Simon Miller yard. She was really good last prep, racing very consistently right through, and winning a couple of races. Looked okay in a recent trial and she does have a tidy first up record. The worry with her is that she is drawn wide and there is pace inside her, so she may get stuck wide.
Long Shot: 4 Le Patron (Best Odds: $6.00) drops a bit in grade and depth after contesting the Pearl Classic (1300m) at Pinjarra a fortnight back where she had the nice sit just off the speed and stuck on okay late behind the above average Celebrity Dream. Back to 1100m should suit her perfectly and she maps well from the inside gate.
Race Four (17:18) : Singapore Turf Club Trophy (1MW) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Just Act Natural (Best Odds: $3.20) is on the seven day back up after racing here last Saturday where he surprisingly got back to near last in the run and didn’t get much room in the straight behind Seeker. He is a normally a free wheeler on speed, so if he can go back to that racing style here, he’ll take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 4 Star Glitter (Best Odds: $7.00) is a gelding in really good form at the moment for the Parnham yard. He ran over 1000m here last Wednesday where he got back in the run and came with good momentum but just missed out on victory. Extra 100m looks ideal and he was scratched on Wednesday to be saved for this.
Long Shot: 10 Twelve Rounds (Best Odds: $6.00) sat on speed over 1200m here a couple of Wednesdays back where he did a stack of work from the wide gate and did a really good job to fight on like he did behind Wicked Hunter. Rises in depth, but draws a decent gate and from there Knuckey has plenty of options.
Race Five (17:58) : Lex Piper Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Gatting (Best Odds: $3.00) on top for me here in a really good race. He was 1800m back to 1200m when racing at Pinjarra a fortnight back where he got off the pace before peeling clear and finishing off nicely late behind Man Booker. Quickly back up to the mile, but his run prior at 1800 was strong.
Big Danger: 5 Gangbuster (Best Odds: $2.25) is on the seven day back up after racing in the Challenge Stakes last Saturday where he got back to near last in the run and savaged the line late to run a narrow second to Precious Memories. I like he is backing up and he will love the extra 100m.
Long Shot: 8 Western Temple (Best Odds: $16.00) is a Team Williams runner who resumed over 1400m here last Wednesday in a Class One where she attempted to lead all the way under Pike and she gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish off. She will be better with cover, she has upside and is in the right stable.
Race Six (18:40) : Perak Turf Club Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Next Generation (Best Odds: $8.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra but despite his long pride he worked home with purpose late behind Enchanted Dream. That form reads very well for this. Just only has to overcome the tricky draw to look the winner here.
Big Danger: 1 More Aces (Best Odds: $6.50) was hard in the market when resuming against the older horses down the straight at Pinjarra a fortnight back but he let the punters down when finishing down the track behind Seeker. The positive is that Seeker came out to win last Saturday to frank the form. Giving him another chance.
Long Shot: 12 Yeah Dardy (Best Odds: $14.00) had confident market support when resuming over 1000m here last Wednesday and the support was justified as he got the win, albeit in the stewards room via a successful protest. On debut he was three lengths of Lusaha, a Stakes winner from the Carnival. That formline is the key one here. Reads so well for this.
Race Seven (19:20) : Detonator Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Quite keen here on 9 Falcon Crest (Best Odds: $4.80). He ran over the Pinjarra mile a fortnight back where he got back in the run off a hot speed and was off the pace before the turn but picked up strongly late to run third to Pounamu. He will love the rise to 1800m, fitter and back to Ascot is a big tick.
Big Danger: 7 Pounamu (Best Odds: $2.60) is a gelding in cracking form at the moment. He has won a stack of races this time in, the latest coming in that Pinjarra race mentioned above where he was given a peach steer and got the job done. Up in trip is the obvious query, but he is in winning form and has to be respected.
Long Shot: 1 Kirov Boy (Best Odds: $67.00) is a grand campaigner who hasn’t won for a while, but he can always surprise in races like this. He attempted to lead most of the way over 2200m here three weeks back and he did give a little kick but just tired late behind Tarquin Shadow. 1800m is short of his best, but no doubt he will roll along on speed and give them something to chase. Exotic player.
Race Eight (20:00) : Get The Tabtouch Handicap (72+) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Red Paddy (Best Odds: $3.40) for me here. I thought he did a mighty job in defeat a couple of weeks back at Pinjarra where he was back near last in the run and just savaged the line but couldn’t quite reel them in when fifth to Man Booker. I also think the soft surface was against him, so firmer footing here is ideal, and if he doesn’t get as far back, he’ll just about prove too good.
Big Danger: 6 Dezzie’s Dream (Best Odds: $6.00) has been given a four week freshen up since racing over 1400m here where she got stirred up behind the barriers pre race and that probably sealed her fate behind Settlers Creek. Back to 1100m should suit her given she is a backmarker and the speed in front of her will be ideal.
Long Shot: 1 Agachar Cruz (Best Odds: $10.00) has been pretty good in recent times for the Simon Foster yard. He ran three weeks back over this track/distance where he did a really good job in defeat behind Red Paddy. I think the wide gate isn’t a worry given he can come over without much pressure near his inside. If he can do that, he’ll take some beating.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Falcon Crest
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Gatting
VALUE: Race Three Number 5 Presentatie
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 5
Leg Two: 1, 3
Leg Three: 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8
$50 Investment= 125% of the dividend if successful
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