There is no Black Caviar, but it is still a ‘Super Saturday’ at Caulfield this weekend. Seven Group races, including three Group ones, plus the star quality on display, will make it a wonderful day of thoroughbred action.
The main race is the $1 Million Patinack Farm Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) with Samaready the clear cut top pick in betting after spanking her rivals in the Prelude a fortnight back. A repeat performance and she just about wins.
King Mufhasa broke his Australian drought last year in the Toorak and he gets a golden opportunity to record his ninth Group one win in the $500,000 Cathay Pacific Futurity Stakes (1400m).
Sepoy, one of the best three-year-olds in the world, will kick off his Autumn campaign in the $400,000 Sportingbet Oakleigh Plate (1100m). The champion will have to come from barrier 11 and shoulder 58kg. If he is to win, it’d be a weight carrying record for a three-year-old in the races long and proud history.
The support card is just as strong. The colts and geldings will keep on putting the miles in the legs for their Derby aspirations when they contest the $180,000 Autumn Classic (1800m) while the fillies will slog it out in the D’Urban Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m).
Australia Cup contenders will tune up for the big race at Flemington when they fight it out in the $200,000 Calrton Draught Peter Young Stakes (1800m) and then 40 minutes later, the mares will round up the day in the $125,000 Mannerism Stakes.
Race One: Premier Signs Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Even with the 2kg weight rise, Spirit Song looks the one to beat. Mares that are in form, stay in form.
Don’t Back Me: Procida because she is a money muncher. She runs on but rarely wins.
Big Danger: Rock Of Ages doesn’t win by big margins, but she gets the job done. Big test for her here but she does have the advantage of being on her home track.
Roughie: Our Serena ran a solid race in the Mornington Cup last week and does have class on her side. She can surprise with the right run.
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Race Two: The Champagne Pommery Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for a roughie here in Smackdown. Has had one start, for a win at Tauherenikau in a Rating 65 against older horses. He showed a very nice turn of foot that day and he has been sent to Australia under the care of Austy Coffey. I give him a great chance.
Don’t Back Me: It Is Written has been impressive in his last two starts on face value, but the form surrounding him is suspect. Bit of a risk.
Big Danger: Hot Spin has class and her effort in the Rubiton was outstanding. She shoud just about win, but I have gone with value as I think she’ll be very short.
Roughie: Blinkers going on Graskop is a good gear change. She’ll get the gun run from the inside barrier and be right in the finish.
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Race Three: BMW Caulfield Autumn Classic 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: From the better barrier, I’ll put Specter on top. Had a wide gate last start and was forced back in a slowly run race, but he got to the line well enough. Looking for this trip now and he should get the run of the race from Arnold.
Don’t Back Me: Faron has won his two starts back from a spell, but he was plain last start at Bendigo in a bunched finish. He is a nice type, but given he is owned by Lloyd Williams, he might be short.
Big Danger: Not sure where Hoylonny goes because he has also accepted for Rosehill, but if he runs here, he’ll be hard to beat. Crying out for a longer journey and he strikes a weak race here.
Roughie: He probably won’t win, but keep an eye on Ethiopia. Lovely debut run over 1700m at Sale when making up good ground late. He might measure about as a Derby contender in Adelaide.
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Race Four: D’Urban Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: One of the most open races of the day. Soft Sand was very impressive in the Kevin Hayes and looks the one to beat, but $2.50 seems very risky. I have her on top, but I won’t be backing her at the price.
Don’t Back Me: Nocturnelle is a professional type that was a slick winner at Canterbury last month. Trialled in sharp order a couple of weeks back, but first time racing the Melbourne way against a bunch of smart fillies…It will take a big effort from Chris Waller and Kerrin McEvoy to get this girl home.
Big Danger: Anabandana was game in defeat behind Soft Sand after sitting wide throughout. Drawn barrier one, will sit on the speed and be awfully hard to run down.
Roughie: Shopaholic at $7? She beat Mosheen fair and square last Saturday and she is $7? Please! Have something on that.
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Race Five: Cathay Pacific Futurity Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I can’t see King Mufhasa getting beat. Bad luck cost him last start, but Nash jumps on, he should lead, dictate and win well.
Don’t Back Me: I am a huge fan of Pinker Pinker. Probably running third to Black Caviar and More Joyous as the best mare in Australia. However, she is first up and she tends to need the first up run before finding her best.
Big Danger: Playing God sat deep all the way in the C F Orr and stuck on courageously for third. He has fitness in him now, drawn perfectly and goes well second up.
Roughie: Danzylum was ridden very poorly by Nick Hall in the C F Orr because he needs to roll along in front. Regular rider Luke Currie is back on and he’ll give the horse every chance. Definite exotic player.
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Race Six: Sportingbet Oakleigh Plate 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: About 11 winning hopes here. The main ones I’m keen on are Sepoy, Woorim, Bel Sprinter, Facile Tigre and Winter King. Boxed Trifecta might be the bet.
Don’t Back Me: First Command is going well at the moment, but I just feel he might be found wanting late here given how hard they’ll go in front.
Big Danger: Really keen on Woorim each-way at $26. Flies fresh and at the 1200m. Pace will be a cracker for him, should get the perfect run, big overs for me.
Roughie: Winter King isn’t suited at WFA but he stuck on well behind Rain Affair in the Expressway. 52kg here, Bossy rides, ideal barrier and he is $31? If you look beyond Sepoy and Bel Sprinter, there is superb value to be had.
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Race Seven: Patinack Farm Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to give Applegate another go. When McEvoy says he is looking forward to riding this one more than any other in the Darley stable, then that has to be respected. She had no luck in the Prelude and from the pole, she’ll get the charm run and hopefully show the form she showed on Melbourne Cup Day.
Don’t Back Me: Jimando should be 100/1 given he has barrier 20. Nice type, but he has no hope from that barrier.
Big Danger: Samaready oozed class in the Prelude. All she needs to do is repeat that here to give this an almighty shake. However, $2.10 does seem a bit unders.
Roughie: Mama’s Choice could not have been more impressive in the Chairman’s. She’ll get back, but she’ll be motoring late.
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Race Eight: Carlton Draught Peter Young Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: $2.80 for Southern Speed is a gift. Fitness edge, drawn well, has the form on the board, wins here.
Don’t Back Me: Manighar was impressive the other day, but he is at WFA now which I don’t think suits him. $4 is a stupid price. Big risk agaisnt the big boys here.
Big Danger: Illo is the one I want for the Australia Cup. Brilliant first up run behind Black Caviar and was actually unlucky in the straight. Big watch on him over the longer distance.
Roughie: Very surprised they are putting up $15 about Ranger. He has the best turn of foot in the race and I thought his run behind Manighar was solid given he had the big weight and was forced well back from the barrier. He should be in the finish.
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Race Nine: Mannerism Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: With luck, Slow The Flow wins last start. But she was caught near the fence which was off that day. Should get clear galloping space from the barrier and prove hard to run down for the powerful combination of Matthew Smith and Damien Oliver.
Don’t Back Me: Let’s Be Happy has been the surprise packet of the Summer/Autumn. She just keeps running good races, but surely her time is up? She can’t keep running strong races in town can she?
Big Danger: Hi Belle was the eye catcher in the same race that the above two contested. Got back and weaved through the ruck late to hit the post powerfully. Extra 200m is in her favour and Williams sticks.
Roughie: Crafty Lady resumed for the new stable with an encouraging second behind a handy one in It’s Crunch Time. Does perform well second up and is on her home track, which is an advantage.
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