25/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

WA racing returns to Belmont for the first time in 2019 this Saturday where eight races have been set down. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I think 1300m and the bigger track will suit the Paul Jordan trained 1 Specialism (Bet Now: $3.60). Ran over 1200m at Ascot two weeks ago where she sat up outside Mia Dolce but didn’t corner too well whereas Mia Dolce railed like a greyhound and that was the difference in the end. Extra 100m on the bigger track, despite being in work a fair while, I think Specialism can bounce back into the winners list.

2 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $3.00) is in a real purple patch at the moment for the George Davies stable. Was confidently supported to win that race mentioned above and she won it at the start with a clean jump to find the front and from there, she looked the winner and sealed it on the turn when handling the corner better. Harder here, but hard to knock the way she’s going.

Does look thin depth wise outside those hard in the market. 10 Ascendancy (Bet Now: $21.00) is a first starter for Fred Kersley who has trialled up well in readiness for her debut, the latest coming here over 1000m when running third but going about her business rather nicely. Gets right down in the weights after the claim for Azzopardi and draws a soft gate. One for multiples for sure.

Second up syndrome is the only thing stopping 4 Money Maher (Bet Now: $2.15) making it 2/2 this prep. Resumed over 1400m at Ascot three weeks ago, his first run in a year, and he was outstanding in winning, rounding them up quickly, dashing to the front and holding a safe margin to the line. Just has to repeat that, or something similar, to be beating up this field and winning again.

2 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $4.40) has a picket fence next to his name in the form guide and is just about in career best form. He has won three on end, the latest coming over the mile at Ascot two weeks ago when given a sweet steer from Peter Hall, creeping forward around them off a slow tempo before pushing the button and he put them away rather quickly in a dominant win. Creeping up in the weights, but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

An improved showing from 7 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $20.00) wouldn’t totally shock. He has had three runs back from a break and has teased to do something positive but for the most part has been disappointing, the latest behind Touch Of Silver. He does tend to save his best for Belmont, so I think you have to give him one look at the track before penning him for the prep.

3 Catherine Wheel (Bet Now: $2.70) is a talented filly for Karen Kersley who is four weeks between runs since attempting to lead all the way over 1100m at Ascot and she tried hard but she just didn’t have the class to go with Dance Music, but stuck to the task really well when running second. Been given a little freshen up and back to 1000m, hopefully jump, run and win.

5 Lido Beach (Bet Now: $4.00) is on the quick back up for the Lindsey Smith stable after racing over 1000m at Northam last Thursday on what was a very sticky track, getting the sweet sit just off the speed before Pike eased him to the outside and he finished best to get the win. Ran well in town the start prior so he can measure up to city level, despite some decent depth engaged here.

9 Pastry (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Peter Fernie trained filly who just had to do too much work to kick up on the rail and hold a spot on speed, and that effort told late when fifth behind To Rise Again, beaten under a length, so far from disgraced. If she can be taught to get cover and take a sit, that will help her out not just here but long term. Dangerous if that can eventuate.

3 Finally French (Bet Now: $2.80) gets the nod now with the hot pot out. This Team Harvey trained gelding did too much work first up at Ascot on Good Friday in a total forgive before going to Northam when given a sweet steer by Kate Witten and proving too good. You’d like to think there is room for upside and with a stack of speed engaged, can see him getting the suck run in behind and having last look.

6 Just A Fluke (Bet Now: $13.00) is a horse who could easily find positive form without surprising. Ran over 1100m at Ascot two weeks ago where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a mini kick but felt the pinch late and finished down the track behind My Demi. Back to Belmont and back to 1000m should help his cause. Not sure I could back him to win, but he can run a better race.

10 Copper Fury (Bet Now: $23.00) will look the winner for the most part, but last 50-100m will be the test. She just went way too hard at Ascot three weeks ago, using all her petrol tickets to hold a spot on speed, where they went stupid quick and had to tire, which he did late when down the track behind Hoboken. Looks to get the lead to herself and will give a great sight.

There’s a bit to like about the unbeaten Adam Durrant trained three year old 2 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $3.20). He ran over the 1400m here a couple of Wednesdays back where he had to get chasing a fair way out due to the good early speed and was off the bit on the turn, but responded well under Pike and surged hard late to win impressively. Looks promising, has upside and confident he can measure up.

5 Flower Of War (Bet Now: $3.10) is a filly of really good promise for the Simon Miller stable, who is 3/3 in her career to date, her last win coming at Ascot over 1200m at the midweeks on May 8 when on speed and proving too good despite wanting to coast late. She’s got a couple of tricks up her sleeve, but no denying the talent is there, but from a tricky draw, this will be a good test.

6 Forgotten Star (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying this time in for the Alan Matthews stable. Won her first two runs for the prep in impressive fashion before going to the 1400m at Ascot where she got a mile of her ground but loved the way she found the line to just miss out on beating Sophie’s Song. Back to 1300m is the negative, but the big positive is getting onto the bigger track.

12 Eye Art (Bet Now: $7.00) is a lightly raced mare for Lindsey Smith who is putting together a decent little record. Given a lovely ride from Peter Hall to win last time out at Pinjarra, getting the sweet sit just off the speed before angling to clear air on the turn and finishing best, just holding on to get the win in a tight go. Pike takes the ride and down in the weights, she appeals.

3 Media Baron (Bet Now: $5.50) comes through the Beg To Differ race from two weeks ago at Ascot and it was a pretty tough watch if you were on the David Harrison trained gelding. Just got too far back, held up, blocked in the straight…it was an ugly sight and you could easily make a case he should have won. That was his first run in nearly a month so there should be upside.

1 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to have returned in really good order this time in for the Michael Lane stable. Looked as if he’d run a good third/fourth two weeks back at Ascot but he kept surging under Kirby and drove hard late to nab Freedom By Choice. Has more upside to come I would think, gets a soft draw once again and the claim for Witten is another tick.

1400m a little query for 2 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $3.60) but he does look the one to beat. He got a spot in the Final after winning the Northam Heat over 1300m, when winning impressively despite being a tad green in the straight, proving too good for Ouqba Jack, who has more upside than him leading into this, but not sure he has the turn of foot/brilliance to go with Wanna Be Good.

5 Ouqba Jack (Bet Now: $11.00) does look as if he’ll run a rather positive race here for Neville Parnham. He seemed to have every chance in the Northam Heat, getting the good sit nearer the inside and getting the splits, but just found Wanna Be Good too strong on the day. Does have more upside and stable is going well. Not sure I could back him to beat the top tip, but runs well all the same.

3 Recoiled (Bet Now: $26.00) is another that comes through the Northam Heat won by Wanna Be Good. He had the box seat run and looked to travel before a bit of jostling was going on to get the cutaway split, and he just had the stuffing taken out of him I suspect when fourth. His best days are probably behind him, but gets an economical run again and could fill a place.

6 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $2.10) looks the winner. Talented three year old who resumed over 1200m at Ascot two weeks ago where he attempted to lead all the way at a decent clip and to his credit, he gave a really good kick under Parnham but the class and race fitness of Special Reward got the better of him late. Has the run under the belt, up to 1400m…looks the one to beat, clearly.

15 Sigil (Bet Now: $16.00) is well and truly the Tom Melbourne of WA racing. Thought that was going to change at Ascot two weeks ago over 1400m when he dashed to the front and looked home, but Salamaat got the split nearer the inside, dived through and lunged hard to get the win right on the peg, denying Sigil his first win in three years. Generally runs well at Belmont…he’ll be honest again. But a brave person you’d need to be to back him to win.

1 Settler’s Creek (Bet Now: $14.00) is in career best form at the moment for Colin Webster. On the seven day back up after racing at Ascot last Saturday where he was wide no cover for the trip but despite that kept coming and was very good in defeat when a close up fourth to Mrs Brown Boys. Generally saves his best for Ascot, but the Belmont record isn’t too bad. Just needs to overcome the sticky gate.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Money Maher

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 The Velvet King

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 12 Eye Art

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 8, 12

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 6

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