25/3/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, William Reid Stakes night

I’ll start this preview by saying that I am anticipating a red hot rail, so I am looking for on speed/fence in run horses. To me, this race is either go with the Waller hype horses, or an up and comer who has recent winning form? It’s the latter so I am siding with 6 Ice Pick Nick (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Maher/Eustace camp. Lot of arrogance about his debut win at Ararat when leading throughout and running solid time. Should find the front here, extra 100m is ideal and he’ll take running down.

Contender or pretender time for 3 Able Willie (Bet Now: $3.30). If you are a forgiving type, you can make excuses for all three runs this time in. Canterbury track didn’t suit him first up and the next two, he’s been nearer the inside, and each time that wasn’t the best ground. If he’s indeed a Stakes class horse, he has to be putting this lot away.

5 Deprivation (Bet Now: $14.00) looks to be a horse with talent. Price/Kent trained three year old that jumped out like a jet prior to resuming at Pakenham where he was smashed in betting and under a confident steer from Melham, he finished over the top and was impressive. More depth here, but he’s come back well.

I like 3 Point Blaze (Bet Now: $5.50) here. Shayne Cahill trained mare that was thrown in the deep end first up in the Matrice and I thought she ran a beauty in defeat when a close up fourth to Ironclad. That was a solid Stakes race. Now back to a moderate 64, with natural improvement, she’ll take a power of beating.

1 Jucconi (Bet Now: $2.60) is hard to beat if he can get luck from the awkward draw. Resumed at this track/distance where he put his unbeaten record on the line and despite getting beat, his run was full of merit behind Growl. Just needs luck to prove to be a leading contender.

2 Agrimony (Bet Now: $12.00) is a big watch. This Chris Waller galloper returns to racing as a gelding after a couple of runs in Sydney in the Spring where he failed to fire a shot each time. Been gelded and I thought he closed off well in a recent Werribee jumpout. Tricky draw, but overall, the depth here is on the thin side.

1 Bello Beau (Bet Now: $4.00) I think can measure up. Unbeaten Tassie juvenile for Adam Trinder that is 3/3 to start his career. Has he been beating much over there? I think so. There is a bit of depth to the juvenile ranks over there and he has been dominant. Trialled well leading in, should land on speed and take beating.

4 Crosswinds (Bet Now: $5.00) is a threat, but market will be fascinating. Debuted over 1100m at Ballarat where it was more or less a barrier trial. They dashed home in 32.7 last 600m, which for an 1100m race, says they went very well slow early, but he spanked them and overall, not sure this is the strongest 2YO race going around.

9 Wicklow Lass (Bet Now: $13.00) should appreciate 1200m here. Debuted over 1100m at Bendigo when knuckling down strongly late to get the win at start one in good style, looking like a horse that will want further. Stable is flying, she maps well and will be strong at the end.

Looks a dead set two horse race and at the better odds, leaning towards 7 Barb Raider (Bet Now: $4.40). She is a beauty for Jerome Hunter that has been given a peach by Willow in both runs this time in, resulting in wins, albeit against her own age, but she’ll put herself on speed and with a weight pull, with upside, I think she can wear down the hot pot.

3 Flying Mascot (Bet Now: $1.65) should be regarded as one of the better mares in Australia. Yes, she has been placed to perfection, but she has been winning, has been dominant and has run time. Track/distance winner from the Spring, should land near the front and prove hard to beat.

4 Bonvicini (Bet Now: $21.00) looks to be on track. Off a freshen up in the Mannerism when completely not suited by the race shape. I didn’t mind the way she stuck it out in the straight despite not having the turn of foot of others. Fitter and up to the mile, she can be dangerous.

Back in trip I do like for 8 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $16.00). He ran over 1200m at The Valley last time out where he did his usual thing of getting back in the run and working to the line nicely late, this time producing a fourth to Maritana. He has an awful racing pattern but will be charging late.

1 Yulong Command (Bet Now: $3.20) has been up a while for Team Freedman but he’s just do damn genuinel. He has such an ideal racing pattern and it’s easy to see why he has the strike rate he has. Led throughout and was much too good last time out over 955m at The Valley, albeit he beat nothing. Loves it here and will look the winner for a fair chunk.

2 Bless Her (Bet Now: $5.00) is a daughter of Street Boss for Clayton Douglas that resumes. Teased to win a Stakes race during the Spring but kept finding a couple better on the day. Short course racing is her go in life, she has jumped out well leading in and should be strong at the end.

4 Poleaxed (Bet Now: $4.20) on top in what looks a two horse race. Team Keys trained gelding that produced sustained speed to spank them last Wednesday at Sandown in a dominant display. 2040m here is ideal for him, he’ll be near the front and in a thin race, he’ll take running down.

1 Inverell (Bet Now: $2.10) is hit and miss. He could win by five eased down or finish midfield. That has been him this time in. First up, he spanked them and looked a Stakes class horse. Next time, he was smashed in betting but did nothing, though I think he was ridden a touch warm. I think he’s hard to beat at his best, but can’t back him at the short odds.

5 Cuffe’s Grange (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a distant third pick. Several weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he tried his guts out from near the speed but was just no match for an in form mare, Angel Rock. I can’t see him beating the first two, but can run third or fourth.

9 Marabi (Bet Now: $1.80) is the one to beat. Star mare. Lot of arrogance about her Oakleigh Plate win in fast time. The form didn’t stand up at all in the Newmarket but she just does everything right, she’s been placed to perfection and just can’t get away from her. She’s clearly the one to beat.

I think a fast run 1200m is ideal for 12 Generation (Bet Now: $7.50). He looked all over a winner a few weeks ago in the Zeditave but he couldn’t quite peg back Finance Tycoon in a driving go. To me, that run indicated he wants more ground, so a fast run 1200m is ideal, he’s in form and maps super.

1 Trekking (Bet Now: $21.00) is a knockout hope. He wasn’t suited first up at 1000m down the Flemington straight with the big weight on wet ground. Much better suited here at 1200m and in these kind of races, he always has to be respected. He is an absolute most for multiples.

I can’t believe 5 Douceur (Bet Now: $11.00) is near double the price of a horse like Daisies. She resumed in the Kewney and it was more or less a barrier trial for her. Flashing light was clearly Daisies, but this filly was bolting for clear air and didn’t get it. Needs luck from the draw, but at the odds, have to speck each way.

3 Ancient Girl (Bet Now: $4.50) is racing so well at the moment. This filly comes to Moonee Valley after bolting up in the Morphettville Guineas at Morphettville, helped by a confident and arrogant steer from Jamie Kah. Drawn wide, but a rinse/repeat ride of that Morphettville race should see her prove hard to beat.

1 Bons A Pearla (Bet Now: $6.50) looks one of the key hopes. She looked like she was going to win the Australian Guineas a few weeks ago but just couldn’t quite finish it off at the mile when a close up third to Hitotsu. Now she has that 1600m run under the belt, that should hold her in good stead and is hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Marabi

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Ice Pick Nick

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 The Last Napoleon

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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