25/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne

10 Miss Sassybeel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a small each way speck. Did more than enough on debut on the Synthetic at Ballarat before going straight to 2200m at Donald where he found a testing track and couldn’t pick his feet up. Firmer footing and Blinkers first time, now on the home deck, happy to have something on at $51+.

1 Castel Trosino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a horse that I think will win a maiden shortly, but does seem a tad short in betting. He’s had two career outings, both coming at Casterton, the latest over 1800m when smashed in betting, ending up having a $1.45 SP, and I thought he was pretty plain in the straight after getting a soft lead, getting run down. He can win given the depth is thin, but he’s short enough. I’d want $3+ before diving in.

11 Sparkling Adiction (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is not far off a maiden win. Big odds at Seymour last time over this trip and I thought she found the line well enough in defeat when second to impressive winner Celtic Glory. Overall, this isn’t a strong maiden, and she has home track advantage, so she’s in the mix.

7 The Woke Waiter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Palentino for Mike Moroney that is on debut. He’s had a couple of Flemington jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest seeing him run third and while he was well held to the line, he didn’t move too bad. To me, this race is Flying Temptress or a first starter and he’s the pick of the first starters.

5 Skyforger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse. Team Freedman trained son of Deep Field that resumed at Moe and battled away well enough from off the speed when second to Cold One. If he brings his form from last prep, he’d beat this lot comfortably. That said, he is well found now in betting.

13 Think Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to include in wider multiples. He was specked at odds when debuting over 1200m at Moe and despite doing a bit wrong, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off in an encouraging debut. Trained on the track and do like the extra 100m for him. First four contender.

Market will be fascinating with 8 Concentric (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for the Busuttin/Young camp. He’s had three career outings, all coming in town in solid races where he was far from disgraced for the most part. Gelded and has had two jumpouts to get ready, the latest coming in early October. Market will tell you if he’s ready. Suspect he will be.

6 Winds Of March (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Simon Zahra trained gelding that resumes. He didn’t really fire a shot in the first prep, but he did contest maidens that were far stronger than this, so he finds a winnable maiden to resume in, and his recent jumpout work has been impressive. Leading contender.

4 Rectification (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Keys trained Palentino gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since his debut back in July at this track/distance when wide no cover and stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind Read. Just one soft 1000m jumpout to get ready but maps to get an ideal run.

Not much of a maiden so going with a first starter in the shape of 9 Leap Year (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Mick Kent trained three year old that is on debut on the home deck and looks ready to go off the back of a jumpout win here where he was on speed and liked that when he was clicked up, he responded and won well. He’ll do me.

1 Brechen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to break the maiden tag. He’s had two runs back from a spell, both coming over 1200m at Moe. Latest of those runs came just under three weeks ago when back off the speed and tried to make a sustained run. He ran well but couldn’t quite get there when third. If the inside gate is used to advantage, he can take this out.

8 Dynamic Deel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Dundeel thre year old that resumes. His dbeut came back in June at Caulfield when very raw and new to the caper when down the track behind Thron Bone. Gelded and I think his jumpout work suggests he can run a positive race fresh, and maps ideally from the gate.

Back up to 1200m is a big tick for 2 I Am War (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Dominant win at this trip two back at The Valley before going back to 1000m here in the Apache Cat and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Jigsaw. There is a query that he may get trapped wide on speed but if he finds the front, he will look the winner for a long way.

7 Turbo Ken (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since resuming with a win at this track/distance, where he lobbed into an ideal spot on speed and was able to finish best. Not sure he finds the front here, and interesting the stable switch from Jennings to Ellerton, but he is a horse with talent.

Firmer footing is a big tick for 6 Maritana (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Looked the winner in a three horse field at Bendigo last time but the wet track brought him undone when second to Lady Dunmore. Draws to get a good run in transit and I think the big tick for him is getting onto a firmer deck. He can win for sure.

1 Cusack (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Not A Single Doubt for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since August 6 at Flemington when finding the seven furlongs a bridge too far when down the track behind Berkeley Square. Stable is flying and is trained on the track. Hard to beat.

4 She Dances (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is favourite and is hard to beat, but gee she is short enough. Resumed on Oaks Day down the straight and found the line well enough from near last to finish a few lengths away from Aitch Two Oh. Drops miles in grade/depth and on form is a leading chance. Just too short at the moment.

2 Immortal Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Greg Eurell trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since March 12 at Flemington when producing an end of prep run behind Fortunate Kiss. Been given a good break and his recent jumpout work suggests he has come back in pretty good order, so watch the market.

5 Cotel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been nominated/accepted/scratched a few times in recent weeks, so they are looking for the ideal race to kick off with a win and I think they have found it here. Her debut win came at Caulfield back in July when leading throughout and was impressive in the run to the line. Couple of sharp jumpouts to get ready, should land in front from gate one and be winning.

2 Madame Bolli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a speedy mare that resumes for Jim Conlan. She didn’t really fire a shot last prep in the Autumn but I think she’s back in business with two jumpouts and a trial under the belt to get ready for her return. At her best, she can challenge Cotel, so watch the market.

1 New York Baby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to include in wider multiples. She ran behind Snapper a few weeks back at Flemington where she got into a reasonable spot but couldn’t quite finish it off. I reckon with a more conservative steer, she has the ability to run a positive race against these.

5 Day In Heaven (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks one of the hardest to beat for Matt Laurie. She spanked them to break the maiden tag two back on the Synthetic at Pakenham before going here on Cup Day when wide for the trip and I thought she stuck on pretty well in defeat behind Brayden Star. If that run hasn’t busted her, she’ll take beating against these.

2 Barclay’s Bank (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. He’s been strong in two runs back from a break, the latest coming over 1400m at Pakenham when back in the run and closing off with real purpose, finishing a narrow third to The Real Thing. Racing like 1600m suits and has home track advantage.

1 Trodaire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a leading chance. This gelding is over a month between runs since resuming over 1400m here where you could make a case where he should have won had he got a clear crack at them instead of getting badly held up at a crucial stage. Needs luck from the gate, but the return was too good to dismiss.

11 Typical You (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Phillip Stokes trained gelding that is several weeks between runs since resuming over 1300m here where he lobbed into a lovely spot behind the speed before Spain found clear air, he had momentum and got better as the race went on, drawing clear to win impressively. He’s on the up and maps ideally again.

10 Cold One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that jumps out of maiden grade but is heading in the direction. That maiden win came at Moe where he was on speed before being clicked up on the turn and away he went for a dominant win. Skyforger goes around earlier in the night so you’ll know come jump time here how strong the form is.

1 Confrontational (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Jason Warren trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 1 over 1755m at Geelong where he had every chance from off the pace and couldn’t quite get there when third to Lorenzetti. Better suited over further, but is the quality of the field, can sprint well fresh and gets in nicely after the claim.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Cotel

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 I Am War

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 10 Miss Sassybeel

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Four: 1, 10, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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