Night racing at Moonee Valley wraps up this Friday evening with a bumper card of racing, highlighted by the Group l William Reid Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (18:30) : Simpson Construction Handicap (70) 2040m:
Back Me: 7 Typhoon Monaco (Bet Now: $2.20) is a talented mare who should take some beating here. Ran over this track/distance last Monday and did a really good job against the bias I thought when second to Cassadee. Provided we get an even playing field here, she looks a leading contender for sure.
Back Me: 5 Princess Aria (Bet Now: $6.50) has to be seriously respected here. She is a Sydney visitor who ran over 1800m at Sandown last time out where she absolutely lapped it up and bolted in. Will only be better off at 2040m, upside and looks a leading contender. Only query is how will she handle the Valley track.
Long Shot: 2 Mightiest (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over 2000m at Cranbourne three weeks back where he got a mile back in the run but presented wider on the turn and finished off his race quite strongly to just miss out on the victory. Third up now, so he should just about be ready fitness wise and this is a very winnable race.
Race Two (19:00) : Ascend Sales Valley Pearl 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Pageantry (Bet Now: $7.50) for me here. This smart looking filly for Team Freedman comes here off the back of a last start third in the Cinderella at Morphettville where she had the suck run behind them and tried hard behind Time Awaits, who ran okay last week. Ticks a lot of boxes here.
Big Danger: 1 Coruscate (Bet Now: $4.80) comes to Melbourne after kicking off his career in Sydney, the latest start resulting in a third in the Pago Pago behind the above average Gary Portelli colt Single Bullet. Always cautious when these horses do the state switch, but more often than not, it’s successful.
Long Shot: 6 Doubt I’m Dreaming (Bet Now: $7.00) is a nicely bred colt that debuts for the John McArdle yard. Very tough to win at this level at start one, but I thought he trialled up really recently on his home track at Cranbourne, looking to go about his business quite nicely in running second. I think he can measure up here with the right run.
Race Three (19:30) : PKF Plate 1200m:
Back Me: Going to give 4 Matty (Bet Now: $8.50) another look here. Dominant win here first up before going to Flemington a fortnight back where he pretty much ran his race in the mounting yard and behind the barriers. He does plenty wrong, but he is very good. If he brings his best, he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Kens Dream (Bet Now: $2.60) he confident market support when resuming down the straight at Flemington and the plunge almost came off but he had to settle for a close up second to Falcool. Stakes winner here from the Spring and the fresh effort indicates he has come back in super order.
Long Shot: 3 Artie Dee Two (Bet Now: $6.50) looks ready to go close to winning here. He ran over 1200m in a Three year old race on Adelaide Cup Day where he got back and finished off with real purpose to run a close up fifth to Fully Stoked. Looks ready to show his best here and draws a lovely gate.
Race Four (20:00) : Inglis 55 Second Challenge Final 955m:
Back Me: 5 Petits Filous (Bet Now: $2.15) is probably the most intriguing runner all day across Australia. If she runs up to anything near her best, she gives them a spanking. The issue is that she hasn’t raced since the Robert Sangster last year when finishing down the track behind Precious Gem. Been off the scene a long time, but I loved what I saw from her in a recent Caulfield jump out.
Big Danger:3 Beau Rada (Bet Now: $11.00) is a beauty for John McArdle. Rarely runs a bad race and is always around the money. Finally got the win on the board last time out in a heat of this race where the speed was hot and he came out wide with the last say to ambush and win. More speed here, but more depth. That’s the query, but he will be strong late.
Long Shot: 9 Punt Club (Bet Now: $9.00) is a gelding in ripping form at the moment for the Pat Cannon stable. Got a much deserved win last Friday night at the Valley over 955m when sitting off a hot speed and ambushing at the right time to grab victory near the peg. That was his first run in a month, so there should be improvement.
Race Five (20:30) : Art Series Hotel Group Alexandra Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Ellicazoom (Bet Now: $3.20) just picks herself here I think. Star WA filly who went within a lip of winning the Kewney but was nabbed right on the peg by I Am A Star. Looks perfectly placed up to the mile and all things being equal, she should be too classy. Very keen on her chances here.
Big Danger: 4 Peninsula Links (Bet Now: $4.60) creates really good interest here. Very good filly from SA who absolutely trotted up last time out under Matty Neilson, and dashed right away to win by a space. Has always been targeted as a possible blacktype contender, and I think she can measure up here.
Long Shot: 6 Inspired Estelle (Bet Now: $26.00) has the mile run under the belt and though lacks the class, she should be in it for a long way. Ran over the mile at Sandown last Wednesday where she sat on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t match it with Zunbaqa. A must for exotics with the right trip.
Race Six (21:00) : William Hill Sunline Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 10 I Am A Star (Bet Now: $2.05) just picks herself here I think. Star filly for the Nicholls camp who got her deserved Stakes win last time out in the Kewney where she was given a peach by Yendall and nabbed Ellicazoom right on the peg. Can only be better off at the mile here, and gets the weight pull.
Big Danger: 2 First Seal (Bet Now: $4.80) is a high class mare who is looking to dodge the bottomless Sydney tracks. Resumed in the Coolmore and looked to travel well in the run but once she was let down, the wheels started spinning. Firmer footing here is a big tick, and she is the class factor engaged here.
Long Shot: 7 Lady Selkirk (Bet Now: $26.00) has been freshened up since racing in the Mannerism at Caulfield where she got back in a slowly run race yet finished off quite strongly late in the piece. Suited up to the mile, and if she gets conditions to suit here, she can threaten. And, she will be really good odds I suspect.
Race Seven (21:30) : William Reid Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Hellbent (Bet Now: $7.00) is bursting to win a major and I think he gets his chance here. Hasn’t raced since the Oakleigh Plate where he finished off his race with real purpose to run a close up fourth to Sheidel. Bit of an unknown at the Valley, but his turn of foot will come into play and if he is within striking range on the turn, he’ll take some holding out.
Big Danger: Just forget that 8 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $13.00) went around in the Newmarket given he got bashed inside and out in what was a very messy race and he just couldn’t pick up any momentum. The run prior in in the Lightning was very good and something similar to that here would see him go close, and Bowman is booked.
Long Shot: 2 Flamberge (Bet Now: $15.00) is the winner of this race from last year and I think he has to be respected here. Ran a ripper in the Lightning when a close up fourth to Terravista before backing up in the Oakleigh Plate where not much went right for him behind Sheidel. Dodged the Newmarket to be kept fresh for this and he loves racing here.
Race Eight (22:00) : ADAPT Australia Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $1.40) looks the clear horse to beat. Two from three so far in his career, with two starts/wins coming here at this trip, and both times he has bolted up, the latest coming last Monday when starting Winx odds and justifying that quote. Clearly more depth here, but he is quite promising and should handle it comfortably.
Big Danger: 8 Nic Nac (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Greg Eurell trained galloper in really good form at the moment. He ran over this trip at Pakenham a couple of Thursday nights back where he sat on speed and gave a really good kick when asked for the effort and rightfully sprinted clear late. Toughest test to date, but looks likely and will be out of trouble near the speed.
Long Shot: 9 See Me Fly (Bet Now: $10.00) hasn’t raced for six weeks so perhaps the freshen up will do him the world of good. Ran over 1500m here last time out and battled away after receiving a nice sit when fifth to Strike Force, a subsequent Flemington winner. Trialled up well last week beating Stakes peformer Mr Individual. Big watch.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Handsome Thief
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Ellicazoom
VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Pageantry
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10
Leg Four: 5
$50 Investment= 125% of the dividend if successful
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