The biggest race day in Tasmanian racing comes around this Wednesday with Launceston Cup Day, where the feature race is the $200,000 Group lll Betfair Exchange Launceston Cup (2400m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (12:55) : UBET Handicap (Class One) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Quirribilly Lodge (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed on Hobart Cup Day and let down strongly to win narrowly but impressively. Finds a very nice ride and despite drawing wide, he should be out of trouble and charging home late.
Big Danger: 2 Box Of Frogs (Best Odds: $2.80) ran at Hobart a fortnight back and stuck to the task quite gamely when running second to Trot On Candy, but he beat the rest off quite comfortably. He draws well, should get the run of the race and is a definite winning chance.
Roughie: 1 Rougeau (Best Odds: $11.00) has been given a month freshen up since running over this track/distance when running fifth to Clairborne King. The four weeks between runs tells me he is wound up to win here, and he should do no work from gate one.
Race Two (13:30) : Venarchie Contracting Handicap (62) 2100m:
Back Me: 3 Prominent Star (Best Odds: $8.00) ran over 2400m at Hobart last time out and closed off strongly from near last to run fifth to Shlingas, beaten 2.6L in a pleasing effort. Should sit a touch closer from gate one and looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Electric Crimson (Best Odds: $3.00) ran third in that race mentioned above and he tried his guts out after attempting to lead all the way and copping severe pressure on speed throughout. If he can sit on speed without that pressure, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: 1 Speckie (Best Odds: $5.50) is on the back up from last Wednesday night where he ran over the mile and ran a beauty I thought when second to Dillon Hall. Looks a real query at the trip, and with the topweight, but he has the class factor and is hard fit.
Race Three (14:05) : Toll Tasmania Handicap (Class Two) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Red Sun Rising (Best Odds: $6.50) resumed on Hobart Cup Day over this trip where he led all the way and kicked on strongly to win despite being seriously challenged in the straight. Dean Holland takes over from Steve Arnold and he is riding in super form at the moment. If he can overcome the gate, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 6 Step The Pedal (Best Odds: $3.10) ran over this trip at Hobart a tick under two weeks back and let down strongly from a midfield position to get the chocolates. Pires sticks which is noteworthy and he should get every chance from the gun draw.
Roughie: 1 Luxembourg (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed over the Hobart 1200m and got a fair way back along with being wide throughout but he kept on working to the line behind Trot On Candy. Fitter now, and despite drawing wide he is a definite winning chance.
Race Four (14:40) : PFD Food Services Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Naadam (Best Odds: $2.50) looks close to a good thing here. He tried his heart out last start in the Carbine Plate (1200m) on Hobart Cup Day and just missed out on picking up Gee Gee Red Prince. Meets that horse 4kg better off here…just looks the winner.
Big Danger: 1 Gee Gee Red Prince (Best Odds: $2.35) won that race mentioned above, and it was the brilliant front running ride from Brendon McCoull that got the win. Looks the leader again, and it is easier to lead all the way at Launceston compared to Hobart. He is the main, and perhaps only threat.
Roughie: 6 I’m Wesley (Best Odds: $9.50) resumes here after a 70 day break, where he last raced over 1100m here when winning narrowly but impressively. Recent Devonport trial was very encouraging and he does have form around Gee Gee Red Prince.
Race Five (15:15) : Steve’s Liquor Gold Sovereign 1200m:
Back Me: Remaining with 3 Gee Gee Double Dee (Best Odds: $3.80). The daughter of Wordsmith is unbeaten in four career outings, the latest on Hobart Cup Day in the Ekwick Stakes when winning narrowly. Her most dominant and impressive win has come at this track, and while she is a risk at running a strong 1200m, the stable knows how to get them up on a big race day.
Big Danger: 4 Hot Dipped (Best Odds: $1.65) is a classy daughter of Written Tycoon that is unbeaten in two starts, the latest coming in the Magic Millions last Wednesday night when starting odds on and bolting up despite sitting wide no cover. On paper, she is the one to beat, but she looks a real betting risk at the price. Nonetheless, she is a definite threat.
Roughie: 8 Hussy’s Glow (Best Odds: $8.50) debuted over 1000m at Morphettville and worked home strongly late behind Serenely Discreet in what looks a really strong form race. Like the fact she has been given the little freshen up with this race in mind I suspect. $10 looks really good overs.
Race Six (15:50) : Launceston City Council Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Silver Bolt (Best Odds: $3.20) is absolutely loving life at the moment, winning five on the bounce, including last start at Hobart where he darted through between runners and won with a bit of ease. No reason why he can’t continue the picket fence.
Big Danger: 1 Geegees Doublejay (Best Odds: $2.40) is the class runner engaged here. She has been given a five week freshen up since running a game second to Admiral in the UBET Stakes (1200m). Weight is the worry, but class wise, he has a bit on them. Weight is the major negative.
Roughie: 10 Meconsul (Best Odds: $15.00) drops big time in grade after contesting the Thomas Lyons on Hobart Cup Day where he was totally outclassed behind Admiral. Draws much better here and gets down on the minimum, so he is a definite improver at odds.
Race Seven (16:30) : Betfair Exchange Launceston Cup 2400m:
Back Me: I think the value lies with 4 Gladstone (Best Odds: $10.00). This former Perth galloper has taken his time yo find his feet in Tassie, but his effort last time out behind Smoke ‘N’ Whiskey was full of merit with 58kg. He will eat up the 2400m here and has plenty of upside.
Big Danger: 7 Schockemole (Best Odds: $10.00), I thought, was just a Moonee Valley horse, but he put that theory to bed with a close up third to Golden Mane at Caulfield. Stable is having a really good run at the moment, and this is a very weak edition of the Launceston Cup.
Roughie: 9 Aggregator (Best Odds: $12.00) comes through a 2400m race at Ladbrokes Park where he tried very hard bit had to settle for a very narrow second to Last Wish. Mick Kent has a wonderful strike rate when sending horses to Tassie and like Gladstone, he has enormous upside.
Race Eight (17:10) : UBET George Adams Plate 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Admiral (Best Odds: $1.20) just picks himself here once again. He was superb in winning the Thomas Lyons, but what I will say is that he was tired near the peg so that leaves me with some reservations about him running a mile. Had his opposition been stronger, I’d almost risk him, but his class should be enough.
Big Danger: 5 Powercharged (Best Odds: $5.00) also comes through Thomas Lyons, where he ran a clear career best to run a very close second to Admiral. He will be better suited at the mile even though it will be his first attempt. Looks the main threat.
Roughie: 3 Dream Roller (Best Odds: $61.00) sat on speed in the Thomas Lyons and tried hard, but he gradually faded to finish sixth of eight. He is better than that, and I think with a cold ride, he can threaten.
Race Nine (17:50) : Coates Hire Handicap (72) 1400m:
Big Danger: 1 Just Call Me Fred (Best Odds: $6.50) ran over this track/distance on January 20 where he finished alright late to run sixth to Powercharged, who nearly beat Admiral. That form looks good enough for him to be a threat here for sure.
Big Danger: 8 Partenza (Best Odds: $6.50) is a stablemate of the top tip who also ran at Hobart last time out where he was just fair I thought when running midfield to Bella Venus. Needs to improve a touch to threaten here, but with the right trip, he certainly can.
Roughie: 6 Treasury Bond (Best Odds: $8.50) was a touch disappointing I thought last time out when running fourth to Livermore at Hobart after he seemingly had every chance on speed. Trainer knows how to get them to fire up during the big days and this isn’t a strong race.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Admiral
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Silver Bolt
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Gladstone
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 13, 16
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment= 59.52% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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