The Perth Racing Carnival starts to wind down this Saturday at Ascot, but the depth is still pretty solid, with the feature race being the ATA Stakes (2100m), the final lea dup to the Perth Cup next week. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:59) : Mumm Champagne Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 12 Very Angry Gal (Bet Now: $5.00) is a filly on debut for the Simon Miller yard. She has trialled twice leading up to her debut, the latest coming last Monday at Lark Hill when winning and running solid time. Looks have had a good grounding for the first up attempt and stable should always be respected with their youngsters.
Big Danger: 5 Art Series (Bet Now: $4.60) debuted over this track/distance a fortnight back where she was kept quite safe in the market off nice trial efforts and the punters nearly got it right, with the filly running a close up third to Lob City, beaten about a neck. Race experience is a big tick when it comes to these juvenile races with many first starters, so she should take some beating.
Long Shot: 10 Street Fury (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Street Boss filly on debut for the Ben Pearce yard. This chestnut has only had one public appearance, which came over 400m at Lark Hill last Monday where she won the trial and ran okay time. Needs to improve a bit I think to be a serious winning chance, but she can only have upside from that trial.
Race Two (14:34) : Perth Cup Hospitality Book Now Handicap (78+) 1600m:
Back Me: Keen on 7 Astronomite. (Bet Now: $2.60). He was a bit of a tease earlier on in the prep and the question was asked whether he had come back in order this prep. He proved that he had because he has won two on the bounce, and though the wins have been narrow, he has really found the line and wanted to win. No reason to see why he can’t continue the picket fence.
Big Danger: 4 Django (Bet Now: $2.80) was heavily backed to knock off Astronomite here at this track/distance a fortnight back and wehn Carbery presented him at the top of the straight, it looked game over but he just couldn’t quite get past Astronomite. Does get a weight swing on that horse, so he will go close for sure.
Long Shot: 2 Vengabus (Bet Now: $7.50) is the interesting one. Was, or is, down the Perth Cup trail and comes here off the back of okay efforts in the lead ups to that event, the latest being a midfield effort in the JRA Cup behind Kia Ora Koutou. Outstanding record at the mile and has class, so he shouldn’t be underestimated.
Race Three (15:09) : Lavazza Handicap (66+) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Pinzu (Bet Now: $3.80) is a horse who I am getting slowly sick of, but I am giving him one last chance here. He ran three weeks back here over this trip where he sat midfield in the run and just stayed there, not making much of an impression. He finds a very winnable race here and surely he has to win one sooner rather than later.
Big Danger: 8 Luke’s Gold (Bet Now: $4.00) was enormous two back here in the Provincial Final before going to Pinjarra where he got back in a slowly run race and finished off hard late to just miss out on picking up proven city performer Travellin’. He is doing all this in his first prep, so how long he can remain up is the issue, but he can’t be ignored at the moment.
Long Shot: 9 Paddy (Bet Now: $26.00) resumed over 1200m here last Wednesday where I thought he was a real eye catcher. He got back to last before presenting wider and while he was never a winning chance, he did work home strongly over the final 150m. Okay second up record and has some good stats at Ascot. One for exotics.
Race Four (15:45) : Peacock Bros Plate 1500m:
Back Me: 4 Dragon Commander (Bet Now: $4.60) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he attempted to lead all the way under Renee Forrest and to his credit, the gelding gave a really good kick but was nabbed near the peg by Ragazzo D’Oro, who placed in the WA Guineas, so that form looks very well and he’ll get map favours.
Big Danger: 6 Reef Keeper (Bet Now: $10.00) is a two start maiden, but there is plenty to like about him and the way he goes about it. He ran behind Dragon Commander in that race mentioned above and his effort was more than tidy, picking up late and was strong through the line, so back to 1500m is a concern, but he looks to have some quality about him.
Long Shot: 2 Gatting (Bet Now: $6.50) was too good for them in his first two runs this time in before racing over 1100m here where he got back in the run and closed off nicely late to run third to Hoboken. 1100 to 1500 is never easy, but he definitely does give the impression he will appreciate the rise in trip and is a definite threat.
Race Five (16:25) : Crown Towers Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $2.10) is a super little filly for the Dan Morton who just thrives on racing. She ran over this track/distance last Saturday where she gave a really good kick on speed despite working and for the most part looked home but was nailed in the final metres. If she can get a cheap sectional here, she’ll be hard to run down.
Big Danger: 2 Atacama Sky (Bet Now: $5.00) has been given a freshen up since racing over this track/distance on October 29 where he sat on speed and tired late when fifth to Sweet Ora despite being heavily backed late. Very good horse on his day, but that day hasn’t been seen for a while. Market will be the guide.
Long Shot: 6 On The Turps (Bet Now: $12.00) ran well twice at Belmont during the Winter before being spelled. He resumed down the straight at Pinjarra in what looked a thin maiden but he did get the job done and toughed it out strongly when challenged. Bit to like about him and I think he can measure up here.
Race Six (17:05) : Tabtouch Perth Cup Next Saturday Handicap (1MW) 1800m:
Back Me: 10 See Me Sizzle (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven turnaround after racing here last Saturday over the mile here where he got a long way back in the run but finished off stoutly late nearer the inside behind Gloryland, running third. Looks as though he will eat up the 1800m, he he has upside and a senior rider takes over.
Big Danger: 9 Royal Attraction (Bet Now: $6.00) was a dominant winner first up winner over 1500m here before racing at the same track/distance and being a touch disappointing to the eye when fifth to Persian Princess. Perhaps she raced flat second up, so look for her to bounce back hard third up.
Long Shot: 8 Lets Twist (Bet Now: $7.50) ran over this track/distance last Wednesday night where she got back to near last in the run in what was a slowly run race before Smokin Joe eased her to the outside and she finished off with real purpose to just miss out on the win. Harder here, but down in the weights and proven at the track/distance.
Race Seven (17:44) : ATA Stakes 2100m:
Back Me: Pretty keen to back 5 Star Exhibit (Bet Now: $2.50) here. He like most here, comes through the JRA Cup a fortnight back where he had a lovely sit just off the pace and tried hard but was just simply no match for the Perth Cup favourite Kia Ora Koutou. He isn’t here and this should be a win for the Peters horse.
Big Danger: 6 Dark Alert (Bet Now: $5.50) was favoured, and indeed well backed to win that JRA Cup race two weeks ago given Pike elected to steer him over Star Exhibit but he just got back in the run and was asked to do too much. Not as much depth here, should sit closer in the run and go close to knocking this field off.
Long Shot: 4 Kirov Boy (Bet Now: $11.00) is a grand campaigner who is never far away from the action. He made his mid race move like always in the JRA Cup and to his credit he gave a tremendous kick but was nabbed late. Something similar will happen here and the field doesn’t carry as much depth. I won’t be shocked if he saluted.
Race Eight (18:20) : Heineken 3 Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Keen on the Thorn Park mare 7 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $3.30), who resumes for Team Williams. She raced three times during the Autumn and let the punters down badly, but on a couple of occasions she had no luck in the run, including a second to Cool Passion and Dendee. Trial win at Lark Hill was outstadning and with her A-game, she’ll be too good for this lot.
Big Danger: 5 Red Paddy (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he bolted up towards the leader on the turn and at the top of the straight, but the leader/winner just had it too good and careered away late. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 3 Disco Metal (Bet Now: $3.80) ran over 1100m here three weeks ago where he was perhaps flattered by a hot tempo in front of him but once Pike got him balanced up and into the clear, he really savaged the line and ended up recording quite a soft win. Much more depth here, but hard to ignore strong winning form.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Celebrity Dream
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Astronomite
VALUE: Race One Number 12 Very Angry Gal
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
Leg Three: 5, 6
Leg Four: 3, 5, 7
$50 Investment= 33.33% of the dividend if successful
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