24/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

I am quite surprised that 4 Starbury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t favourite. Son of Starcraft that is on debut for Nick Ryan. He has had a couple of preps so he’s had the good grounding and with two jumpouts this time in under the belt, he’s ready to go. Latest jumpout was last week at Flemington and I thought he moved very well in behind them, seemingly with plenty to offer. B Shinn on, will be handy and in a thin race, he’s one of the better bets on the card.

5 The Swooper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key and perhaps only threat. Team Hawkes trained three year old that resumed at this track/distance three weeks ago where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a solid enough kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Cobblestone Way, who has run well since. Tricky draw, but should slide forward and better for the run under the belt, he’ll give a sight.

11 She’s Rich Enuff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for wider multiples. Ben Brisbourne trains this filly, who resumed a few weeks ago over 1200m at Wodonga where she settled back in the run and worked to the line strongly late in the piece when a narrow second to Sting Jet. Not sure she has the quality to beat the first two, but has the run under the belt and the 1200m run to have the good grounding.

You’d think this is near D-Day for 3 Defining (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She was very good fresh on Ballarat Cup Day before being close up at Sandown. She raced there again and to the eye, she was plain behind Wishlor Lass, but post race she pulled up with throat issues. Clear forgive run and now dropping back to a moderate race like this, J Kah on, she’s a decent enough price to find out if she’s going any good.

Back to the mile should be a positive for 7 Field The Moment (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Led and stuck on well fresh over 1500m here behind Shuffle Dancer before going to 1800m at Sandown and just found the trip a bridge too far behind Hennessy Lad. Should be suited back in trip, should land on speed and if she is able to pinch a cheap furlong or two, she’ll take catching.

Back in trip In find interesting with 4 Waitapu (Bet Now:  $SP.00). His latest run came over 1800m at Sandown last Wednesday where he got a fair way out of his ground and was held up at times but overall, he had his chance behind a progressive type in Edith. Can use the inside gate to advantage and will be strong late, especially with B Shinn sticking.

6 Liberated Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has got the win on the board and she can go on with it now. Won two weeks ago at this track/distance where the ride from Kah was an absolute peach, riding with intent from the outset and the ride won the race, getting on speed, out of trouble and was too good. Should land in a plum spot from the inside gate and faces similar opposition. Happy to be in her corner.

7 Pankhurst (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse and could be slightly overs. She ran in the race mentioned above from a fortnight back and was going to be right in the finish I thought but got into a bumping battle with Hard Squeeze and that took the stuffing out of her. If she can land box seat, 1/1 at worst, and get clear at the right time, she’s going well enough to threaten.

5 Hard Squeeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. I was keen on her in the race mentioned above and IMO, if she doesn’t get into that bumping battle with Pankhurst, she was building into the race and IMO was going on to win the race. Loses Shinn and draws wide, so they are the knocks, but if she gets luck in the run, she can take this out for sure.

1 Foxicon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive mare for Peter Moody and should be winning this, making it 2/2 this time in. Three weeks between runs since resuming with a bang at this track/distance, giving them a start and a beating in such an impressive display, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting without being fully extended. She has come on big time since last prep, she has natural improvement, sits off the good speed…surely she just wins again.

2 Petulant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands some level of respect. She’s had two runs back from a break, both at Warwick Farm. Each time she has been hard in the market and has been slightly disappointing each run, where she has seemingly had her chance. Perhaps the stable switch to Melbourne and with D Oliver on, she can improve enough to figure in the finish.

8 Berry Bubbly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is down in the weights and is racing in pretty good form. She ran in the Foxicon race from two weeks back here. She was badly held up on the turn when full of running but once she got out, she was just fair to the line and safely held by Foxicon. Think she is racing well and can finish top four again, but doubt she can turn the tables on the favourite.

Death, taxes and 2 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) running well at The Valley. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where he got back in the run and was held up at times but got clear late and found the line well enough behind Red Hot Nicc. He is a short course galloper so back to 1000m I do like, he’ll get a suck run from the gate and if the breaks go his way, he can take this out.

1 Sparring (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a horror gate to overcome but has great early toe and gets in very well after the claim for Gaudray. 2/2 at the track, winning a 955m here last time with sustained speed coming to the fore under J Kah, tracking up before edging clear and holding on to win. He could get into a nasty spot from the gate, but jump/run, he’ll take catching.

6 King Tommy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a horror gate to overcome but has sustained early speed to offset that should Thornton put the handle bars down from the outset. That is what he did fresh at Werribee and the end result was a spank job win, albeit in a moderate 58, but did run good time. If he can get across without spending too many petrol tickets, I think he’ll be dangerous.

9 Zegalo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great each way bet in the get out. He is on the quick back up after racing last Friday over 2500m here where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never a winning threat but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Wagon Wheel, who was backed as if he was Winx 2.0. Off that effort, he’ll love getting to 3000m and good lead that D Oliver sticks.

2 Meiner Legacy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a proven track/distance performer that commands respect. He ran two weeks ago over 2400m at Sandown where he was back near last in the run and tried to make a sustained move but nothing took him into the race so he was never a threat but found the line okay. That was his first run in six weeks so you’d like to think there is improvement to come.

4 Traduce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big price here I feel. Michael Moroney trained gelding that ran two weeks back over 3000m here where he made a midrace move under Oliver to lead but he was found wanting late and tired to run fourth to Sunday Buzz. Reckon with a more conservative steer, he can run a much improved race and is a knockout chance.

6 Acquiescent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that has had two runs back from a spell, winning the maiden at Warrnambool fresh before going to this track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to The Kings Gospel. Better for that run, Tongue Tie on, lands on speed, hard to beat.

Straight to 2040m I find interesting with 12 Pontificate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but she is a mare on the improve and is bred to appreciate the distance being by Dundeel. Dominant win fresh at Hamilton before going to 1500m here a fortnight back where she was near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat behind a handy horse, Aspen Colorado. Racing like the trip suits and should get a cheap run on speed.

8 Shadow Hawk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying I think and the rise to 2040m is ideal. He ran over 1700m three weeks back at Sale on a day where up/in was the ideal pattern. He was back and was never a factor but didn’t mind the way he finished the race off behind High Done. If the inside gate can be used to advantage, Froggy on, he is a sneaky chance at a price.

16 Smashing Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will need luck getting a start but he is the horse with the most talent in the race. Trialled up well in Sydney prior to resuming at Bendigo where the market said he was a moral and under McNeil, he duly saluted and gave them an absolute spanking. Progressive, heading in the right direction, potentially heading to Hong Kong should he win here, but is hard to beat.

12 Luna Cat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Really caught the eye fresh at Sandown behind No Way Ever before racing here where I thought she was there to win on the turn but couldn’t quite finish it off and was bloused late by Danny’s St Darci. Tricky gate to overcome but she brings some of the better form lines leading into this.

1 Kooled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ben Brisbourne trained gelding that resumes. He is a Saturday metro winner so he has the runs on the board to command respect. He hasn’t raced since Cup Day when second in the Subzero to Love Tap, form which clearly reads well for a thin 70. He is a bomb fresh horse, trialled super, maps to get every chance…in a tricky race, he’s one of the main contenders.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Foxicon

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Starbury

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 9 Zegalo

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 9

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 12, 16

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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