24/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Christmas Eve races

A strong ten race card has been set down for Randwick on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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To my eye, this 2YO bunch are even, so I want to speck an improver and 3 Cathay Bracelet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is indeed that improver. Debuted over 1000m at Kembla where she was dragged back to last from the wide gate and was never a factor and did a bit wrong, but I loved the way she found the line late, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. She will be strong late and will be decent odds to have a peanut on.

1 Empire Of Japan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a smart juvenile for Team Snowden and the stable have been lethal when it comes to their babies this season. He was a dynamic winner of the Breeders Plate under J Mac and was tipped out with the Magic Millions in mind. His trial win…was just fair I thought, but he didn’t trial up like a star prior to the Breeders Plate and he made a mess of them there, so given he has the runs on the board, he’s the one.

4 Fire Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Wednesday in the Wyong 2YO Magic Millions where she was on speed throughout and fought it out really well in defeat, albeit was no match for Sovereign Fund. Has the race fitness under the belt and a good racing style to give herself every chance. Can certainly pinch a first four spot.

7 Touristic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Australian debut came a few weeks back at Rosehill where the track pattern pretty much sealed his fate and he ran accordingly behind Danish Prince. The form around him from overseas reads very well and he did trial up super prior to the debut. Stable is in form, so don’t drop off him because I do think he has an engine under the hood.

1800m is the obvious query with 3 Logan Street Lion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but gate one and J Mac are two big ticks for him. Was keen on him at Eagle Farm last time over the mile but I thought he had every chance and was a tad on the plain side behind Irish Playboy after getting every chance. He will do no work, so the trip, I think, might well be okay, and he is a genuine horse.

I think 1 Court Deep (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can take catching from near the speed. Maher/Eustace gelding that attempted to lead throughout at Ballarat last time but the ground was too testing and he couldn’t finish the race off behind Our Redente. Gets back on top of the ground, should find the front comfortably and prove hard to run down.

8 Ausbred Flirt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be respected. Brad Widdup has this girl absolutely flying, bolting up to win her past couple at Kembla. Admittedly she hasn’t beaten much but each time she spanked her rivals, the latest being over the mile. Good test here with a bit of depth on paper, but she is a mare hard fit and in form and has a good racing pattern.

2 Estadio Mestalla (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, is a good horse, so I want to give him another chance. Both Australian runs have come at Rosehill, winning impressively fresh at the midweeks before going there three weeks ago where he was smashed in betting but was no hope with the race shape/track pattern, finishing last. You can’t pen him off last start and for mine, clearly deserves another look.

9 Mediaro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at 2400m previously so a truly run mile will be ideal I think. Fortnight between runs since racing in a Midway over the mile here where they rode on speed and he fought on well enough but for a horse wanting more ground, he just wasn’t suited by the sit/sprint. I reckon with a more genuine tempo, he can run a much improved race.

2 Salire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an awful racing pattern but he does have a big engine under the hood. He ran in the Highway from two weeks ago here and his run was simply enormous from near last when third to Penthouse, producing amazing late splits. He will likely be spotting them a big start but if he’s within range on the turn, he has the finale to finish over the top as seen on Cup Day.

3 Penthouse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly with good talent for Matty Dale. Led and toughed it out well fresh at Ballarat when third to an in form Direct before going to the Highway here a fortnight back when producing sustained speed from the front and holding them safely at bay. Has run well at 1100m previously but is yet to tick it off properly. I think the way this track is playing, up/in will be no disadvantage.

15 A Guinea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Menari for Scott Singleton that resumes. He had a two run Winter prep when last in work, winning last time at Tamworth, but I am noting the first up effort at Hawkesbury where he ran second to what I think is a Saturday class animal, The Poacher. Just one quiet trial to get ready but the form around him does read quite well for this.

5 Olympic Gaze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love the rise to 2000m for Paul Perry. He was zero hope with the race shape two weeks back in the Midway behind King Ratel but I actually thought he found the line pretty well without threatening behind the Heys runner. He’s a winner at 2300m so 2000m should be fine and stable, albeit hard to catch at times, can fire in these Midway races. Definite winning chance.

10 Loving Cilla (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Joseph Ible and is bursting to win a race. Can make a case to say she should have won four weeks ago at Rosehill in a Midway but was given none by Brock Ryan and it was an ugly watch if you were on…and yes, I was on. Her racing style is ordinary, but she was able to settle closer last time and still finished off strongly, so in a winnable Midway, she’s the way I am going.

7 Ripped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is yet to race beyond a mile but he is racing as if 2000m will suit. He comes through the King Ratel Midway from December 10 here and the race shape wasn’t to his liking at all but I thought he found the line pretty well without threatening behind the Bryce Heys runner. The query is the trip but has good upside compared to most and will be dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

12 Awesome Wonder (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but she is a mare who will stay and brings solid enough form lines. She ran in the Just A Jedi race from Warwick Farm and was pretty good from off the speed when third to the Ryan/Alexiou galloper. They have tried to ride her forward but last start, they rode her stone cold, and that might be the best way to ride her.

1 King Of Clubs (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2400m. He is three weeks between runs since resuming over 2000m at Rosehill where he kept chasing from off the speed but was no match late for Zoumon, who got control in front and had the up/in pattern in his corner, so there was plenty of merit in the performance of King Of Clubs and with good upside to come, he’ll take beating against these.

4 Just A Jedi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly hold it. He was bursting to win a race but bad luck kept getting in his way. The rub of the green went his way at Warwick Farm at the midweeks last time and the end result was a strong win over this trip. He has run well at Saturday metro level before and with a win on the board, his confidence is high and is hard to beat here.

Good test here for 6 Democracy Manifest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he deserves a crack. Thought there was a lot quality about his win here two weeks ago when settling near the back of the field but came wide and let down with a brilliant finale to round them up and win impressively, clocking fast late splits. The query is the mile, along with the rise in grade/depth, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

10 Mahagoni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat here for David Payne. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago off a freshen up and was very good from near last on the turn when fifth to Nugget, beaten just under four lengths, but he was enormous given where he was in the run. He doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but the way he’s going, he’ll take beating against this lot.

5 Mr Dependable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to keep an eye on. GaiBott trained gelding that resumed three weeks back at Rosehill where he was wide throughout from the wide gate, eventually landing on speed and that hard run just told, finishing last behind Cavalier Charles. He’s too good of a horse to pen off one run and he does have a fab second up record, so don’t entirely pen him.

13 Anagain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. First run for Joe Pride came two weeks ago here over 1100m where she was well tried at odds and I thought did an excellent job from the back against the race shape behind Iowna Merc, beaten around 3.5L. This stable are the best in Sydney when it comes to improving a tried horse and this mare does look an improver. Back to Mares grade and up to 1200m, she’s hard to beat.

14 Sunshine In Paris (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very progressive filly for Annabel Neasham. Smashed the clock on debut in a Canberra maiden before going to the Mode Plate at Doomben where she was very good late in restricted room behind Stroll. Not sure how strong that form is, but she tumbles in weight, she’ll be strong late and has change up speed. Leading contender.

6 Mosht Up (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could pinch a first four spot at a big price. She ran in the Barossa Rosa race from two weeks back here and was just outclassed but really, far from disgraced I thought behind the Tracey Bartley trained mare. Not sure she has the class/quality to beat this lot unless it’s a mad up/in track. Even though, I’d be surprised she could beat these. First four threat just because of her racing pattern.

9 Kanazawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness for James Cummings. Good late fresh on Gong Day at Kembla behind Cuban Royale before going here and was good from off the speed when third to Democracy Manifest in a strong effort. He tends to save his best for Randwick and if he can settle a pair closer in the run, he’ll prove hard to hold out.

12 Green Shadows (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good enough form to take this out. Has been kept on the fresh side since November 23 at Warwick Farm when on speed and fought on really well in defeat behind Kovalica, who has stamped himself a Group l horse for 2023, so that clearly reads well, his tick over trial was strong and right down in the weights, he’ll run a bold race.

1 Cristal Breeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks back on track. Just a run fresh here on Cup Day behind Norwegian Bliss but ran a much improved race on Mudgee Cup Day when a closing third in a feature sprint. Hard fit now and up to 1400m, his best is good enough to be dangerous at a price. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

13 Iowna Merc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a horse with good talent for Bjorn Baker. He was very good from the back two starts ago at Warwick Farm before being ridden with intent here two weeks ago, sitting on speed and was there to be run down, but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. I reckon with a conservative steer, he’ll be much better off and can launch late over the top of these.

9 Devil’s Throat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a while but is holding his form really well. Three weeks between runs since racing over this trip at Rosehill and given the track pattern, his effort was very good from near last on the turn behind all the way winner Vreneli. He can settle on speed so hoping that can eventuate here and while he keeps finding one or two better, he’s honest, hard fit and racing well.

10 Luvoir (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could pinch a first four spot at a big price. He resumed at Rosehill three weeks back where he was near the speed throughout and although helped by the on speed bias, he stuck on pretty well in defeat behind Vreneli. Fitter, he has run well second up previously, and take out Iowna Merc, this race is on the thin side.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Salire

NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 13 Iowna Merc

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 5 Olympic Gaze

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6, 10

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 13, 14

Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 12

Leg Four: 13

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