24/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Murray Bridge, Christmas Eve races

4 Validated (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he will eat up 1200m and is hard to beat against this lot. Ran two weeks ago over 1050m in a maiden and if you were on, apologies for bringing it up. He should have won comfortably but had no luck at a vital stage when Vorster was trying to get clear, eventually getting out and just missing. Extra ground, bigger track, he has to be respected.

1 Who’s Clang (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a busy boy but is racing in pretty good form. He has won two of three with a third in between. The last start win came two week ago where he looked a beaten horse but he found under pressure to fend off his rivals and cling on for a game win. Not sure there is upside left and there is the query that an end of prep run is incoming, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

5 Lucky Fortuna (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been busy in her opening career prep but she gets to a big track and can be dangerous, like she was when an impressive debut winner at Balaklava, Last run came two weeks back behind Who’s Clang and was solid to the line without threatening behind Who’s Clang. If she can settle a pair or two closer in the run, and not concede too much head start, she’ll be strong late.

1 Manhattan Times… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) surely his time in the spotlight and greet the judge first is coming. Hoping it’s here anyway. He got back and very wide two weeks ago in the Christmas Handicap and was never really a winning threat but was very good late in the piece when third to Diamonds. Proven track/distance performer with a class edge and if he’s within range on the turn, surely he’s too good.

2 One More Jack (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat if he can repeat the first up run. That came in the Christmas Handicap where he was ridden off the speed and got clear late, launching to just miss out on the win when second to Diamonds. Good second up record, good record at the track and with the small field, he should land on speed and prove hard to run down.

4 Extra Time (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but he certainly has the engine under the hood to take this out. He ran two weeks back in the Christmas Handicap where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Diamonds. Think the bigger track suits and if he’s within range 400m out, he can certainly win.

3 Pudding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to rate as one of the hardest to beat. Three weeks between runs since spanking his rivals over 1550m on the Parks, he ran time and the merit was that he did work early in the run and was entitled to be weak late but he was strongest late. For mine, he only has to hold his form to be winning form again in what looks a winnable race once again.

4 Pentire’s Spirit… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can he be trusted? First run for Michael Hickmott came over 1250m three weeks ago on the Parks track where he was completely unwanted in betting given he was first up over a trip clearly short of his best, but I really liked the way he kept finding under pressure to drive hard late and win. Fitter, up in trip, with enormous upside, he has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

6 Mug’s Game (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a last start winner who commands some level of respect. Big odds at Balaklava last time but nobody told the mare late because she produced sustained speed from the front and gave them an absolute spanking, winning by over four lengths. Likely finds the front once again and if she gets some level of control, she’ll take running down at a likely decent price.

Getting to 1400m and a bigger track are two big ticks for 13 Valentina Charm (Bet Now:  $SP.00). David Jolly trained filly that has had two career outings, both runs coming at 1200m at Strathalbyn. Latest run came last Wednesday where she seemed to get lost around the tight track but was good late when balanced up in the straight to run second. 1400m, bigger track, she’ll take beating.

7 Fortis In Armis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the main threat. Was a tad plain on debut at Morphettville behind Second To Nun before going to Gawler where he was ridden stone cold and he worked home with real purpose in the straight when third to Sipsmith. Gets to 1400m on the bigger track, home track and Pannell sticks, so he has a bit going for him in what is a winnable maiden.

6 Seafaring (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a first four contender. Good in defeat two back at this track/distance before going to 1200m at Gawler when doing work in the run and just felt the pinch behind Half A Dram. That was last Saturday, so like that he jumps back up to 1400m and this stable do have to be respected when they quickly back up their runners.

1 Blazerro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is working up to a win I feel for Phillip Stokes. He was well backed three weeks ago on the Parks track at Morphettville and tried hard but was simply no match for My Khalifa, a very much in form horse and is the true definition of a track specialist. He will only be fourth up here, so he should have petrol left in the tank and this does look quite a winnable race for him.

4 Saskatoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be hit and miss but is a last start winner so he commands respect. Toeroek produced a 12/10 rode on him last time on the Parks track. Got into a lovely spot near the speed and no doubt the ride won the race because he didn’t put them away and had to be ridden right out to get the win. The end of 1400m is the knock with him but he has scope given this will only be start nine.

3 Jack The Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Chris Waller, he now finds himself with the Francis/Kent camp. He is better suited over a bit further on previous form but gee I was taken by a recent trial win, indicating he is seemingly enjoying life with the new camp and can pull out a decent run fresh. Watch the market.

2 Ritratto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a bit of an unknown at 2500m but does have somewhat of a class factor. He ran just under two weeks back in the Bordertown Cup where he was tucked in behind the speed and presented to win the race, trying his guts out, just missing out on the win when second to Dr Dee Dee. I think 2500m will be okay and he is a horse that once he finds positive form, he holds it.

1 Clever Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Too bad to be true two back in the Penshurst Cup but the track was too wet. He found firmer footing at Morphettville and ran well in a race not really run to suit when third to Darlamax. He’d be hoping for a more genuine tempo and if this does become survival of the fittest, he’ll be one of the last standing.

11 Sasun (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, will be fine at 2500m. He comes here as a last start winner having won over 2050m at Strathalbyn where it came down to survival of the fittest and he ended up being last man standing, driving clear late and was dominant in the run to the line, suggesting a rise in trip will be no issue, and right down in the weights, he appeals.

1 Secret War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a jump/run type that looks extremely well suited to the 900m set up here. Unwanted in betting when resuming three weeks ago on the Parks track and did find the front, but copped too much heat first up and felt the pinch late behind the in form Rodeo. Much better suited in a 900m scamper here I feel and fitter, he’ll give a stack of cheek.

7 Manage The Cycle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect in a race like this. He ran over 1000m on the Parks track a gew weeks ago where he was back near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Rodeo. I reckon the drop back to 900m will be ideal for him here and with a good tempo in front, he will be one of the strongest late.

6 Old Time Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back to 900m and draws to do no work. Hasn’t raced since November 16 at Morphettville when back off the speed and kept finding the line behind Ocean Reward. He’ll likely be run off his legs early but while others will be gasping for air late, he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.

8 Crackhorn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. Archie Alexander trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since May 8 at Ballarat on testing ground when leading and giving a pretty solid kick when second to Mister Me. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh, has jumped out well in readiness for his return and he gets Vorster from a soft gate. He rates highly against this lot.

9 Test The Law (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a seven start career for Matty Seyers. He ran a fortnight back at Morphettville where he was on speed throughout and was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win, beating up a field which had more depth than this IMO. Good record at Murray Bridge, he should take beating against these.

4 Perfect Illusion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is better suited over further but has placed in both runs at Murray Bridge and can pull out a decent run fresh. He hasn’t raced since August 13 when producing an end of prep run on a bottomless deck at Morphettville behind Miss Gobcain. Better suited once he gets towards towards 2000m, but he has run well fresh in the past for the stable, so don’t entirely pen him.

13 Lianne (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks set right up for a crack at a Saturday metro race on the home deck. Far from disgraced fresh from the back behind Aston Rapova before going to Morphettville where she again got back in the run and was very good late when just under two lengths away from Test The Law. Hard fit now and getting to 1400m on the home track, she looks hard to beat.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 5 Lacrima (Bet Now:  $SP.00). First run for Michael Hickmott came three weeks ago over 1400m on the Parks track and I thought she caught the eye late in the piece when a closing fourth to Texan Windstorm. You look at the form of this mare when James Bull trained her, gee it reads well for this, and with natural improvement, she’ll take beating against these.

10 Pitrain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is around six weeks between runs for Team Jaensch since racing over 1800m at Morphettville where he got back in the run and spotted them a decent start but was good to the line behind surprise winner Chelimo. Tends to save his best for Murray Bridge and while he is better suited over a tad further, he will be strong late compared to most.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Manhattan Times

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 14 Valentina Charm

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 Lianne

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7

Leg Three: 8, 9

Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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