24/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Belgravia Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot on Saturday where it is Belgravia Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

Belgravia Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belgravia Stakes

3 Nick Of Time (Bet Now: $5.00) should love the rise to 1600m. Ran over 1400m in a maiden here two weeks ago and worked home strongly from off the pace when third to Lord Lonsdale. The depth here is nowhere near as strong and if he can sit a pair closer in the run, he will take a power of beating against this lot.

1 Trade Fair Express (Bet Now: $5.00) has had a number of chances to break the maiden tag, but gee he gets a great chance here. He comes through the Lord Lonsdale maiden from a fortnight back and loomed large to beat the heavily backed runner but couldn’t quite get the job done. He gets his chance here for sure.

2 Redmill (Bet Now: $9.50) is one for multiples. He was 1200m to the mile when racing last time out at Northam and loomed large to win but couldn’t quite get the job done and felt the pinch late. You’d like to think he will come on from that and a good lead IMO is that Pateman is booked to steer. Knockout chance at odds.

9 Silent Act (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Bruce Watkins trained mare that comes here second up after resuming last Wednesday at this track/distance where she was back near last in the run before coming wider and launching late, but Brave Dream had the suck run behind and finished best. She will come on from that and can sit much closer in the run this time around.

3 Tallinn (Bet Now: $6.50) should be suited up to 1200m. Resumed over 1100m during the Kalgoorlie Carnival where he was off the speed and I thought ridden a treat by Pateman. Loomed to win but couldn’t quite there when a close up second. He will come on from that and is a live chance. Just hope he can use the draw.

8 Lonehead Larry (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Vaughn Sigley trained gelding that is on debut. He has had a couple of trials in readiness for his first start and has looked pretty good in both hit outs, suggesting he has gig ability. This isn’t a strong maiden, so he doesn’t need to be anything special to get away with it. Market watch.

1 Fatale Femme (Bet Now: $1.85) looks the way to go. This filly was heavily backed when debuting at this track/distance two weeks ago and despite sitting wide no cover for the trip, she strode up to the leaders and kicked strongly to win. Think only bad luck can beat her against these provided that run hasn’t busted her.

9 Rising Commodity (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Simon Miller trained filly that is on debut. This daughter of Super One has trialled twice in readiness for start one, and has looked pretty good each time she has stepped out. She’s in the right stable and has drawn well, so keen to see how she goes, especially with the gate and claim.

5 Crowned Princess (Bet Now: $21.00) has race experience on her side and that will carry her a fair way here because race experience is so vital in these early 2YO races. She ran third to Fatale Femme two weeks back and worked home strongly without threatening. Not sure she wins, but one for multiples at a price.

I think 2 Mackenzie Brooke (Bet Now: $4.50) deserves another chance. Was keen on her running well here two weeks ago but she just took an absolute eternity to wind up, and in a sit/sprint, her chances were low given how far back she was. If she can sit closer in the run, think she has the class to beat these, and the claim helps.

5 Bonneville Black (Bet Now: $2.45) has done an outstanding job this time in cor the Fred Kersley team. Put together three on the bounce before racing here a fortnight ago when near the speed and battling away really well in defeat I thought when a close up third to Double Digit. He’ll put himself into the race early and give his all, like he has done in recent outings.

6 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $9.50) should be suited up in trip. He was freshened and came back to the mile when racing here two weeks back and I’d be forgiving of that run given the tempo was an absolute crawl, and he just doesn’t have the speed in the legs to go with them. Lone start at this track/distance saw him win, so he is capable, and for mine is a knockout chance.

Tricky gate to overcome for 6 Western Pride (Bet Now: $4.00) but I’ll still lean her way. Resumed over 1400m at Belmont five weeks ago where she was back near last in the run, spotting those in front a big start, but loved the way she found the line when second to Patristic. Gets the 3kg claim and good speed in front, so she’ll get her chance.

The best version of 13 Dunbar (Bet Now: $13.00) is certainly capable of measuring up here. I’d forget he went around here last time out, sitting wide no cover for the trip and was ridden upside down, so had to fade out of the finish and rightfully did. He’s better than that, so giving him another chance, but it’s last chance.

Back to 1400m I think is a big tick for 4 Zero Demerits (Bet Now: $16.00). He ran over the mile here two weeks ago and I thought was given a lovely steer. Loomed to win buy just didn’t quite see the trip out, so hard fit, back to 1400m, with the claim for Chris Graham, he is a leading contender against these. Just needs to overcome a tricky gate.

10 Oristano (Bet Now: $12.00) for me. David Harrison trained gelding that put together a couple of sharp wins to start the prep before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was back near last in the run and finished off hard late when a close up fifth to the progressive Dom To Shoot. If he’s within range on the turn, think he’s too good for these.

5 Ocean’s Fifteen (Bet Now: $4.20) isn’t one of mine but concede he’s hard to beat here. He ran at this track/distance two weeks ago when just off the speed and was there to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Dom To Shoot. He’s nearing a win, but has been costly from a betting perspective. Can win, but if he’s too short, I couldn’t back.

4 Lacevinsky (Bet Now: $17.00) is another that can be hard to trust, but his best is clearly good enough to take it out. He comes through the Dom To Shoot race where he was off the speed and was a beaten horse at the top of the straight in a disappointing effort. I’d include in multiples because he is certainly capable.

7 Queen Brown (Bet Now: $3.70) looms one of the better each way gambles of the meeting. IMO, she looks like a filly that could be one to continue the 3YO filly domination of the Kingston Town. Resumed two weeks ago and I thought she was outstanding in defeat, charging late behind Clairvoyance. Any hint of improvement and I think she’s clearly one of the hardest to beat.

1 Gemma’s Son (Bet Now: $4.20) is the class of the field and that will carry him a long way here, especially if he can get a cheap furlong or two in front. Thought he was disappointing behind Clairvoyance two weeks ago, but should find the front rather comfortably here and Blinkers off, hopefully to relax him. Deserves another chance.

3 Watch Me Dance (Bet Now: $14.00) is a quality filly for the Steve Wolfe team that returns to racing after one run in the Winter, where she bumped into a potential star in Clairvoyance. How well does that form read? Very well and this girl was one of the better juveniles from last season. Dangerous if she can use the gate positively.

The Cerise & White will win the race. Just a matter of picking which one. I hope it is 8 Celebrity Queen (Bet Now: $3.10). Resumed over 1200m at Belmont two weeks ago where she sat off a good speed before angling into clear air and in a driving go, she finished over the top for a big win. Been freshened up, potentially for some blacktype during the Carnival, so think she can win this before heading down that path.

14 Long Beach (Bet Now: $5.00) deserves another chance. He’s a stablemate of Celebrity Queen that was ordinary to the eye last time out behind Spillinova, but was found be slow to recover post race, so there were excuses for him. He’s a very sharp horse when right, and has had time to recover from that outing. He can bounce back here for sure.

Interesting that 7 Chix Pic (Bet Now: $23.00) is on the quick back up. He resumed over 1000m here last Saturday and I thought didn’t do a great deal behind Elite Street, but perhaps just needed the run. Interesting that he does back up straight away, but his second up record does read quite well and he can easily bounce back.

Think the rise to 1800m should be ideal for the Team Williams trained gelding 6 Expressionist (Bet Now: $5.00). He ran over 1500m here last time out where he was just plain I thought but perhaps was looking for more ground, which is what he gets here, and I think Parnham going on will help his cause. Hard to beat in the get out.

Fitter and up to 1800m I do like for 1 Adornment (Bet Now: $8.50). She resumed over the mile here two weeks ago and while she was never really a winning threat, liked the way she closed off late in the piece behind stablemate Truly Great. This looks a much weaker race and she has got more upside than most, so she deserves some form of respect.

10 Cornflower (Bet Now: $15.00) is a little query at the trip, but Alan Matthews has this mare going very well. She ran over the mile here last Wednesday when on speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite get there and had to settle for a close up second. Think with a more conservative steer, she will be make effective.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Queen Brown

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Nick Of Time

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Oristano

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 14

Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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