23/4/2016 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

The Sydney Autumn Carnival has wound up but there is a still a quality nine race card set down for Rosehill this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race One (12:00) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (75) 1200m:

Back Me: 3 Reincarnate (Best Odds: $1.70) looks the way to go in the opener. This Godoolphin gelding was just so dynamic last time out at Warwick Farm, leading all the way and showing such a sharp turn of foot. He repeats that here and the $1.80 opening price would seem very generous.
Big Danger: 4 Sir Bacchus (Best Odds: $7.00) is a very talented three year old that resumes for Chris Waller after a strong Summer prep, which ended with a down the track effort in the Magic Millions Guineas (1400m) at the Gold Coast behind Mahuta. The trial didn’t fill me with great confidence, but he is a very good horse who can sprint well fresh.
Roughie: 2 Wudang Mountain (Best Odds: $8.00) is a stablemate of Sir Bacchus who also resumes here from a Summer prep which was just a several run prep full of teasing. Interesting to note he comes here with no trials, but Bowman rides, so watch the market, because $12 seems good overs.

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Race Two (12:35) : Pluck @ Vinery Handicap 1100m:

Back Me: Going with the Chris Waller trained 7 Gretna (Best Odds: $4.00). She was impressive in winning two back at the Valley before going to Caulfield a fortnight back where she was given a pretty ordinary steer when a luckless third to Najmaat, beaten 2.5L, but with a better ride, she would have won. She’ll eat up the 1100m here and she did trial well on a couple of occasions in Sydney prior to her debut at Caulfield.
Big Danger: 10 Sylpheed (Best Odds: $7.50) was unwanted in betting when debuting at Wyong but gee she showed a lovely turn of foot from off the speed to dash clear and with a touch of class and authority. From all reports, she has done very well in work since, and the stable don’t mind throwing up a youngster from nowhere.
Big Danger: 1 Aviator (Best Odds: $12.00) has been given a 59 day freshen up since debuting over this track/distance and showing true grit in the straight to win quite impressively. Comes here off the back of no trials, which is unlike Gerald Ryan, but he looks above average and just has to overcome the tricky draw to be a threat here.

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Race Three (13:10) : James Boag’s Premium Handicap (78) 2400m:

Back Me: 5 Rhodin Drive (Best Odds: $4.60) was given a beaut steer from Macca to win over 2200m at Warwick Farm, kicking on very strongly in the straight when challenged to win narrowly but impressively. Up to 2400m, I don’t think, will be an issue and he looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Murphy’s Delight (Best Odds: $3.20) ran a close up third to Rhodin Drive in that Warwick Farm and his effort was very good I thought considering he was a month between runs. Can only see upside with him, in the right stable, trained on the track and should take a power of beating.
Roughie: 1 Mr Steal (Best Odds: $4.60) was six weeks between runs when leading all the way in gritty fashion to win the Orange Cup (2100m). He lumped 60kg to win on that day, so the weight here will be no issue and though he is zero from two at Rosehill, he’ll lead and will run the trip right out.

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Race Four (13:45) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1500m:

Back Me: 3 Allzin (Best Odds: $18.00) is a talented horse from Wauchope who resumed over 1500m at Coffs Harbour where he tracked up well and finished off alright when third to Dixie Lad. Peter Graham comes to town for this ride, he draws well and you go back through his form last prep, it does read quite well for a Highway Class 2.
Big Danger: 7 Jungle (Best Odds: $9.00) has been given a 44 day freshen up since sitting wide no cover at Goulburn over 1400m and working home well late when third to Russian River. Draws wide, but I really like the fact that McDonald steers and he has to be strongly considered.
Roughie: 10 Balametalica (Best Odds: $31.00) ran over 1400m at Wagga Wagga last time out where he sat outside the speed and stuck to the task pretty well I thought when fifth to Highway winner Grand Proposal. Gets down in the weights and gets the services of form rider Sam Clipperton.

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Race Five (14:20) : Schweppes Handicap (78) 1500m:

Back Me: 8 Chandana (Best Odds: $3.80) looks one of the better bets on the program. His effort first up in the South Pacific Classic (1400m) was outstanding given he was back in the run and had to dive his way through the field for a very good fifth. Heading towards Queensland and the Derby, and Chris Waller does have a stranglehold on that race. This horse will stamp his claims here.
Big Danger: 10 Imposing Lass (Best Odds: $4.20) was just electric when he resumed over 1400m at Warwick Farm, leading all the way and bolting up to win by four lengths. What I will say is that he did dictate, but the win was very good and he was first up, so there is just enormous upside.
Roughie: 4 Montauk (Best Odds: $10.00) steps back in grade after contesting the Carbine Club (1600m) last time out at Randwick where he didn’t seem entirely happy on the puggy track behind He’s Our Rokkii, who franked the form last weekend in the Frank Packer. He can sharply improve here.

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Race Six (14:55) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (78) 1400m:

Back Me: 1 Unequivocal (Best Odds: $9.00) is on trial for a trip to Brisbane for the Carnival up there. Her run was identical to Hetty Heights in the same race mentioned above; got back and couldn’t run on due to the tempo. She is at her best when she can dip her toe into the ground and her run prior behind Malaguerra was very good.
Big Danger: 10 Sort After (Best Odds: $3.00) couldn’t have been more impressive last time out at Beaumont-Newcastle over 1300m where she sat off the speed and showed an electric turn of foot to win in good style and ran the smart time to back it up. Gate two, Avdulla rides and being third up here, she should be ready to peak.
Roughie: 3 Sweet Kiss (Best Odds: $26.00) bolted clear over this trip at Warwick Farm last Wednesday and just felt the pinch late when running fourth to Something Secret, beaten 2.5L. The forecast is for rain later in the week, and that will bring her right into contention and she looks a great value bet.

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Race Seven (15:35) : Bowermans Office Furniture Handicap (83) 1500m:

Back Me: 2 High Midnight (Best Odds: $4.60) is a talented gelding that was well backed at odds when racing over 1350m here and was given a gun on speed steer from Glyn Schofield to win impressively. Has since been freshened up and looked sharp in a recent Randwick trial behind Strawberry Boy, who ran a ripper last weekend, so the form reads well and the step up to 1500m will only be beneficial.
Big Danger: 9 His Majesty (Best Odds: $3.20) was one of the best runs of the entire Championships when contesting the Provincial Championship where he got back near last in the run and had to come home near the inside despite a farcical tempo. Bit concerned that Shinn isn’t riding given he knows the horse so well, but Avdulla is a handy replacement.
Roughie: 4 Himalaya Dream (Best Odds: $15.00) can be a real nightmare to follow, but I thought he stuck on pretty well last time out at Caulfield, though it should be said that it was a day where leaders were advantaged. Well weighted after the claim and does look the leader without too much pressure.

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Race Eight (16:15) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (78) 1350m:

Back Me: 7 Hetty Heights (Best Odds: $4.40) is a talented mare that comes through the Provincial Championship Final where she was enormous in defeat behind Danish Twist given she was back in the run and just couldn’t get into the race given the tempo was farcical. Her two wins prior were explosive and she can certainly bounce back into the winners list.
Big Danger: 2 Rockalicious (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed over 1400m here and ran a close up fifth to Federal before stepping back to the 1300m at Warwick Farm and she just didn’t seem happy at all around the tight track. Better suited here and being third up, she should just about be ready to show her best.
Roughie: 17 The Rumour File (Best Odds: $51.00) is a very interesting runner. This import had two runs for Chris Waller in the Summer and was just simply awful, the first up run behind star galloper Happy Clapper. He has had two trials leading in for his return to racing, and as we know, in general, imports fire in their second prep down under.

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Race Nine (16:55) : Tab.com.au Handicap (85) 1100m:

Back Me: 10 Mogador (Best Odds: $2.80) is a very good three year old that only had one run in the Autumn, resulting in a seventh to Santa Ana Lane in the Zeditave (1100m) at Caulfield. Is now back in Sydney and looked very good I thought in a recent Warwick Farm trial behind speed demon Freeze The Charges. Looks very talented and just has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 4 Freeze The Charges (Best Odds: $7.00) is one of the fastest horses in training at Sydney, so the Rosehill 1100m here will be ideal. He has looked sharp in a couple of trials, he runs well fresh and is well weighted after the claim.
Roughie: 5 Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed in that race Glenbawn Dame contested and she was never really a factor given she was drawn wide and had to go back to last and ride for luck, but her last 150m and through the line was excellent. Nice trial behind Straturbo to tune up, the bigger track suits and with the speed on, she’ll be finishing off just about better than anything.

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Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 7, 10

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11

Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 17

Leg Four: 4, 5, 9, 10, 14

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.