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Nine races will be run and won at Mornington this Saturday where it is Mornington Cup Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:15) Peninsula Essence Handicap (78) 1600m

Back Me

Bludger of a race but I think 6 Battlecamp (Bet Now: $4.40) isn’t racing too bad at the moment. Mark Kavanagh trains this bloke, who doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates going around, but he hasn’t been far away of late. Latest run came in a slowly run 1400m contest at Flemington when back in the run and closing off okay without threatening. Significant drop in depth here, he appeals up to the mile.

Danger

12 North Afrika (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Pat Carey trained four year old who took an absolute eternity to break the maiden status but he finally got win one out of the way last start at Pakenham in pretty impressive fashion, sitting on speed before dashing clear late and proving far too good. On his home track now and now he’s got a win on the board, he can go on with it.

Long Shot

4 Master Shuhood (Bet Now: $21.00) is a UK staying import making his Australian debut for the Chris Waller stable. This bloke had solid enough UK form at 2400m+, so I think the mile here is short of his best, but he didn’t look too bad in a recent Cranbourne trial and did sprint well fresh when racing overseas. Finds a very winnable race if he’s forward enough in condition.

Race 2. (12:50) No Fuss Event Hire Handicap (78) 1000m

Back Me

Really keen on 8 Miss Toorak Flyer (Bet Now: $3.90). Bad start cost her the win two back at the Valley over 955m before she raced down the Flemington straight. Jake Noonan rode a 9.5/10 race on the mare…if there was one negative, it was maybe he went a tad early on her given she’s a mare who has an electric 100-150m burst but sort of paddles after that and that’s what happened, but the good thing is that the winner, Swift Sis, franked the form last Saturday. Reads well and back on her home track, she’s hard to beat.

Danger

7 Miss Leonidas (Bet Now: $3.80) is a daughter of I Am Invincible for the Shaun Dwyer camp that is first up. This girl hasn’t been sighted since the Caulfield Sprint during the Spring when on speed, trying hard but really, was outclassed behind Eduardo. There was talk from the stable last year that they thought she could be a Group l mare, which was probably a tad silly in hindsight, but she’s talented, can sprint well fresh and is suited at this level/trip.

Long Shot

10 Prairie Fire (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained colt who is six weeks between runs since contesting the Inglis 3YO Sprint at Warwick Farm where he really struggled on the bottomless surface behind Fiesta. Has since looked okay at the jumpouts/trials, gets gate one and Lewis German is really firing when combining with the stable at the moment. Definite threat.

Race 3. (13:25) Bentons Square Handicap (78) 1200m

Back Me

The blinkers going back on can definitely spark 1 Enigman (Bet Now: $4.80) for the Maher/Eustace stable. He ran down the Flemington straight five weeks back and ran okay but was outclassed behind Intuition. Been given a little freshen up and with the blinkers going back on, there looks to be intent. Hopefully can overcome the somewhat tricky gate, land on speed and prove hard to run down.

Danger

4 Island Daze (Bet Now: $2.90) is trained on the track by Grahame Begg and she’s a mare who has done a pretty good job since joining the stable, winning two on the bounce before going to the 1100m down the straight at Flemington where she was okay in defeat behind Swift Sis, and that mare franked the form last Saturday. Tricky draw, but does have the runs on the board.

Long Shot

3 Call It A Day (Bet Now: $5.50) is a beauty for Wez Hunter who always runs well at this level and on his home track, he could easily win this without surprising. Resumed over 1000m at Cranbourne where he was forced to lump 62kg then asked to dash off a moderate tempo but he kept chasing and was very game in defeat behind Seven Year Reward. On his home track, with weight relief, he’s a definite improver.

Race 4. (14:05) Cleanaway Handicap (70) 1200m

Back Me

3 Music Bay (Bet Now: $2.70) can bounce back. She was short odds when resuming over the short course at Sandown and on face value, she was disappointing when second to Our Gladiator, but that horse was just ridden brilliantly in front and gave nothing else a chance, including the hot pot. Now has the run under the belt, should hold her in good stead for this.

Danger

1 Private Lounge…(Bet Now: $6.50) I just don’t know about her. First two runs were a tad disappointing but last start was just a nightmare if you were. Think she should have gone close to winning but just got no clear air in the straight and for mine should have just about won. At her best, she’d blow these away. Just not sure where she’s at, but have to include her because of what she’s capable of.

Long Shot

5 Jentico (Bet Now: $9.00) is a daughter of Written Tycoon for Tony McEvoy resuming. She had three runs in the Spring to start her career, winning her first two, including one at the Valley, before being outclassed in the Twilight Glow behind Persuader. Vorster takes the steer and has looked pretty good in recent jumpouts. Interesting to see what the market does with her.

Race 5. (14:45) Mornington Sires 1500m

Back Me

Looks a good race for the Phillip Stokes trained 6 Really Discreet (Bet Now: $1.75). She did some good things for me at massive odds when winning on debut at Sandown before going to the VRC Sires where she got into a bumping battle with Dalasan, losing momentum, but picked up and was good late. Was just under four weeks between runs there, so hopefully room for improvement.

Danger

1 Vinco (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of I Am Invincible for the Tony McEvoy stable who was given a sweet steer from Stubby to win two back at Gawler before going to the Adelaide Magic Millions where he was back nearer the inside on a day where near the rail was the no go zone and I thought his effort to run third to Done By Me was full of merit. Like him up to 1500m.

Long Shot

4 Beauty Supreme (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Grahame Begg trained youngster on the quick back up after racing over 1100m at Sale last Friday where he was a little unlucky not to finish closer after getting held up in the straight, eventually getting clear and finding the line well when third to Alabama Express. Quickly up to 1500m but on breeding, that does appear what he’s looking for.

Race 6. (15:25) Keno Fun Money Handicap (90) 2000m

Back Me

5 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $3.10) looks extremely hard to beat. Former Darren Weir galloper that had his first run for Anthony Freedman over 1800m at Sandown where he was quite impressive I thought. Yes, margin was narrow, but he was first up and had plenty of room for improvement. Extremely suited up to 2000m and has plenty of upside. Hard to beat clearly.

Danger

3 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $10.00) is an Archie Alexander trained stayer who probably isn’t going as well as what he has been in the past but the last run was okay in the Edenhope Cup. Given a 12/10 steer from Declan Bates and loomed large to win but Tre Dieci just proved too good. Has since had a tick over jumps trial at the Bool on Monday to hopefully sharpen him up.

Long Shot

2 Chequered Flag (Bet Now: $26.00) is an interesting runner. Former Weir galloper that is having his first run for the Maher/Eustace stable. I think whatever he does here, he will improve on, and more than likely has eyes on the Warrnambool Carnival, but can sprint well fresh and the jumps trial a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne looked to show he’s returned in good order.

Race 7. (16:10) Mornington Cup 2400m

Back Me

1 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $2.45) is a warrior for Jarrod McLean who rarely runs a bad race. Showed great fight in the Australian Cup when on speed, copping pressure, but finding and was really game in defeat behind Harlem. Was a potential Ranvet starter but instead runs here with the Caulfield Cup in mind, lands in front and proves hard to beat.

Danger

10 Hang Man (Bet Now: $5.00) looks suited up to 2400m. He ran over 2000m at Flemington last time where he produced a brilliant finale from off the pace to wear down Valac and bounce back after a below par run the start prior. 2400m no issue for him IMO and if it’s a strong tempo, he’ll be good at the end of the race and if they go slow, he’s got the turn of foot.

Long Shot

5 Stars Of Carrum (Bet Now: $6.00) is on the quick back up for Robbie Laing after racing in the Alister Clark last Friday night at the Valley where he just got too far back in the run but finished off quite well, albeit was entitled to, when fourth to Global Exchange. Taking on the older horses isn’t an easy task, but is ticking over okay I thought towards an Australian Derby.

Race 8. (16:50) Hareeba Stakes 1200m

Back Me

12 Mystyko (Bet Now: $14.00) has done an outstanding job this prep for Trevor Rogers and was rewarded for consistency with a pretty dominant win in the Abell last Friday night at the Valley, aided by a peach from Willow. Loses nothing with Baster taking over and once again draws a soft gate, and likely sits off a good speed. Happy to be in his corner in a competitive race.

Danger

17 Bel Sonic (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Jason Warren trained galloper who hasn’t raced since the Oakleigh Plate where he got a fair way back in the run and was never really in the hunt but did make ground and wasn’t too bad behind Booker. That form hasn’t been franked yet, but it is Group l form and does read quite well for a Listed race, especially on his home track. Likeable.

Long Shot

9 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $8.00) is the interesting runner. Comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m at Flemington last Saturday where he sat on speed in a fast run race and battled away really well in defeat when third to the beauty that is Widgee Turf. 30th start and yet to race on his home track, but is a hard fit animal who will put himself on speed and give his all.

Race 9. (17:25) Stellar Guineas 1600m

Back Me

Just has to handle the tight track and 1 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $1.90) will be winning. Looks a real SA Derby prospect for the Phillip Stokes team that is three weeks between runs after resuming over 1400m at Flemington and producing that customary and very likeable will to win, surging hard to grab the above average Age Of Chivalry right on the peg. Heading in the right direction and confident he wins this if he handles the track.

Danger

5 Star Missile is a Greg Eurell trained three year old who was really confidently backed when resuming over 1400m under the lights at Pakenham and he landed the bets with absolute ease, romping clear to win very impressively, his first run since being far from disgraced in the Norman Robinson. Extra 200m should only help him and I think if the fav is off his game, this is the bloke to win.

Long Shot

7 Esthetic is a Maher/Eustace trained three year old who was given a lovely steer from McNeil to win over the mile at Stony Creek, and even though he didn’t beat much, it was impressive despite the narrow margin. Gets the Blinkers on to hopefully improve him, because he will need to improve off that run, but no reason to suggest he won’t.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Mr Quickie

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Steel Prince

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Mystyko

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10

Leg Three: 9, 10, 12, 17

Leg Four: 1

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