23/2/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Torney Night Cup night

Night racing continues at The Valley with eight races set down. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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2 Galilaeus (Bet Now: $2.20) looks ready to win for Team Freedman. Jury was out on him after a plain run at Flemington but he bounced back at Caulfield two weeks ago, closing off with real purpose late to just miss out on the win. Like him up in trip and drops big time in depth. Keen on his chances.

6 Bon Appetit (Bet Now: $6.50) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He did that over 2500m here last time and it took a good one in Unusual Pearl to get past him. Looks the leader and if he gets control, he’ll take getting past.

3 Mr Blackwood (Bet Now: $15.00) gets a senior rider back on and I think can be an improver at odds. He ran last Friday night over 2500m here where he got back in the run and failed to get involved in the race when down the track behind Rapinoe. Senior rider takes over and I don’t think the rise to 3000m will be an issue. He’s seen better days but I think can pinch a first four spot.

1 Foxicon (Bet Now: $4.00) should be favourite here I feel and I am surprised she is not. She hasn’t raced since Australia Day when far from disgraced in the Adams behind Queman, who will go around as a chance in the Oakleigh Plate, so the form reads well and this mare saved her best for The Valley. In well after the claim, I think she’s a great bet.

2 Philosopher (Bet Now: $2.25) looks the likely meander but how many petrol tickets he will have to use to get across is key. He hasn’t raced since Jan 27 when attempting to lead throughout over 1000m here and tried hard but found one better in Mornington Glory, who goes around in the Oakleigh Plate. If he finds the front comfortably enough, he will be tough to get past.

3 Shirshov (Bet Now: $4.00) is just under three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Caulfield when landing on speed and giving a reasonable kick but 1100m saw him out and he felt the pinch late behind an Oakleigh Plate contender in Rey Magnerio. Maps to do no work, he is dangerous.

6 Fire Of Etna (Bet Now: $1.65) is short enough but she does look to have a bit on these. Team Freedman trained mare that is several weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she was strong from off the speed but just found one better in Very Sewreel. Maps to get an ideal run in transit and the depth here is nowhere near as deep. Short, but looks the winner.

5 Nursery Chime (Bet Now: $5.50) is a consistent mare for the Kennewell/Yeomans camp that rates highly. This mare last raced on Jan 24 at Sandown over the mile where she got into a decent spot just off the speed and presented to win the race under Gaudray but couldn’t quite get there when second to Actaeon. Tend so race well on the fresh side, Shinn sticks…a threat for sure.

8 Unthinkable (Bet Now: $23.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Mitch Freedman. She closed off strongly fresh at Hamilton when second before going to Werribee where she was solid but not quite as effective behind Obedience in an on speed dominated race. Hard fit now, she can fill a first four spot.

4 Jupitus (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a big price here I feel. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumed over 1300m at Sandown where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Master Montaro. Maps to settle much closer in the run and with good upside, I think he’s a great each way gamble.

10 Rise At Dawn… (Bet Now: $1.90) could he be a sleeper for the Guineas next Saturday with a win here? He didn’t beat much when resuming at Pakenham but the manner in which he spanked them from the front, gee it was impressive. Off that, 1600m should be fine, he maps to lead and off the resumption, he’s clearly hard to beat here.

5 Regal Zeus (Bet Now: $14.00) is hit and miss but his best is good enough to be dangerous at odds. He ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time where he got off the speed and failed to come on when down the track behind Punch Lane. Much better suited when ridden on speed so if that can eventuate here, he can run an improved race.

Not sure if 8 Verifier (Bet Now: $5.50) will be suited to The Valley but he looks to be absolutely humming this time in. He was a real eye catcher fresh at Flemington behind El Soleado before going to Caulfield where he got back and while he was never a winning threat, I liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Another Wil. Hard fit, up to 2000m, Shinn sticks…keen.

3 Moveforlex (Bet Now: $3.90) is eligible for easier but he is a promising animal for Patrick Payne. Market wanted him with confidence when resuming over 1800m a few weeks back at Caulfield, getting back just off the speed and tried hard but just lacked the finale to put them away late in the piece behind El Soleado. Fitter and up in trip, he rates highly.

9 Musgrave (Bet Now: $10.00) has been up a little while but he’s racing really well at the moment for Ciaron Maher. He is three weeks between runs since a strong win at this track/distance when lobbing into a beaut spot off the speed before Zahra edged him into clear air and finished best. Tick over jumps trial was strong and he loves The Valley.

7 Zou Sensation (Bet Now: $3.80) doesn’t have the best of overall records but he is genuine and usually thereabouts. That was the case at this track/distance last time when on speed and fighting on quite gamely in defeat when fourth to Pereille. He is track/distance winner and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Bellinger (Bet Now: $4.40) must be called John Farnham in the Hayes stable given the Australian trip he’s had recently. Adelaide, Melbourne and then last start in Sydney, he was good in defeat at Randwick behind Shezanalister, who is flying, so I think that form reads well and he maps ideally from the gate.

4 Red Phantom (Bet Now: $10.00) is one to include for exotics. Nick Ryan trained gelding that resumed in a pretty solid race at Sale. He was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but he picked up and was pretty good late in the piece when second to Show Some Decorum. Better for the run under the belt, he’s a must for exotics.

5 Monbaher (Bet Now: $7.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness with eyes towards the Adelaide Cup. Did more than enough fresh here behind Dunkel before going to 2400m at Caulfield where he kept finding and loomed but just found one better in Herman Hesse. More upside with this guy, I am leaning his way.

4 Herman Hesse (Bet Now: $3.60) is hit and miss at times but he is good when he is on, as seen in the Caulfield race mentioned above. He could have easily thrown the towel in but he kept finding under pressure between runners and finished best. Trip is no issue, Williams sticks…hard to beat.

15 One Last Kiss (Bet Now: $7.00) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it. This mare got the job done at Flemington several weeks ago, getting the dream sit in behind the speed before angling clear and got better as the race went on to win and win well. Now she has a win on the board, she can build off it and start a picket fence without surprising.

3 Lumber Punk (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Friday night at this track/distance where he got back to near last and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Catahoula. Wide draw, but does get B Shinn and with luck, he’s a knockout hope.

7 I Am Caviar (Bet Now: $3.10) is knocking on the door to win for Moody/Coleman. This guy ran two weeks ago at this track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when second to a good horse in Extratwo. Tricky gate, but in well after the claim, will press forward and take running down.

5 Tax Free Prophet (Bet Now: $15.00) is hit and miss at times but his best is more than good enough, as seen two back here when a close up third to Philosopher. He then went to Sale and was never a factor from the back behind Show Some Decorum. I reckon 1000m is his trip but with a soft run in transit, he can be one here for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Foxicon

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Fire Of Etna

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Jupitus

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 15

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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