23/12/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm

Saturday racing in Sydney makes a rare appearance at Warwick Farm this weekend for a strong nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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5 Condemned (Bet Now: $4.40) is a son of Dawn Approach on debut for Godolphin and James Cummings. He has had two Randwick trials to prepare for his first start, the latest coming last week over the 740m when winning narrowly but impressively. Looks a real pro and that is a big tick for these early 2YO races.

She might be better with time and maturity, but I like the look of 9 Leonarda (Bet Now: $14.00). Team Cummings train this filly, who is on debut after a solid trial at Randwick last week where she got back and worked home strongly, albeit under hard riding. Think she’ll make it eventually, and I do like the fact that she debuts at 1200m and not 1000/1100.

Pretty keen on 1 Akkadian (Bet Now: $10.00). Matt Cumani trains this colt and is already assured a start in the magic Millions with the prizemoney he’s got, so he’s using that as a good hit out clockwise. Thought his run from the back in the Clockwise Classic at Ballarat was full of merit. Looks a nice type and should take beating here.

3 Scream Park (Bet Now: $1.40) is the one with upside. Chris Waller trains this son of Ocean Park and he won the maiden last start over 1400m when sitting on speed in the mud under Avdulla. Not sure he looked entirely happy on the surface but his class got him home. Much better suited on top of the ground and up to the mile a big tick.

5 Choice Harvest (Bet Now: $4.50) was somewhat of a drifter in betting last time out in a Wyong maiden but under a nice on pace ride from Corey Brown, the gelding responded and kicked hard when required for a tradesman like display. He’ll be the leader, controlling things and I’m sure he’ll give a good kick when required.

4 Colesberg (Bet Now: $6.00) comes through the Sparky Lad race at Rosehill where he was first up there for David Payne and he was the horse that was going to improve most, so with that in mind, his run was very good. Proven big time performer at this trip and beyond, so given his record, I think he’s beautifully in at the weights.

4 Cellarman (Bet Now: $2.00) comes through the King Darci race at Rosehill two weeks ago and his run was one of the better efforts from the race given he was back in a slowly run affair and had to come wide on the turn, which wasn’t the A Ground for the meeting. He’ll sit a bit closer in the run here and launch late.

3 Strike Force (Bet Now: $11.00) is a bit hit and miss but I reckon back to the mile will really suit this Mike Moroney trained galloper. He found the 2000m a stretch last time out at Rosehill behind Gambler’s Blues. Really good record at the mile and I think he’ll either get a soft lead or the box seat sit off King Darci. Big improver.

5 Invicta (Bet Now: $13.00) is a quality galloper for the Ken Parker yard who toughed it out strongly to win the Cessnock Cup two back before going to the King Darci race at Rosehill where he tried really hard but again, due to the slow tempo, he couldn’t wind up hard enough when required to run fifth. Won brilliantly last prep at this track/distance and should be hard fit now.

7 Isla Tristana (Bet Now: $4.40) is a talented mare for the Matty Dunn yard who didn’t have much luck in a Rosehill Highway two back before going to the Doomben mile where she got well off them but made up ground late behind Monasterio, who has run well since, so the form reads okay, and I think she’s better suited at this level.

1 Roseito (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Paul Messara trained mare who is showing really good promise. Ran under the lights at Canterbury last start where I thought it was a brilliant ride from Christian Reith that got her home, waiting and waiting to let down and keeping a couple of key rivals in the pocket before sprinting. If she runs the mile out, she’s the one to beat.

11 I’ve Got This Bet Now: $23.00) looks the overs. Tony Green trains this galloper from Kempsey and he comes to town off the back off a really good win against the bias last time out at Coffs Harbour, finishing off with real purpose and seeing out the mile strongly. Right down in the weights. hard fit and in form.

Very tricky race but the safe option appears to be 1 Carzoff (Bet Now: $4.50). He is flying this prep for Chris Waller. Ran over the 2000m at Rosehill a fortnight back and loomed large but the heavily backed Gambler’s Blues found plenty and this horse just died on the run. He’ll be able to sit closer in the run and gets the claim. Ticks the boxes.

3 Great Glen (Bet Now: $5.50) has his hoof right on the till to win. Last two runs over 2400m at Rosehill have been full of merit, the latest coming behind the in form Imperial Aviator when attempting to lead all the way. I think those two hard 12 furlong runs will toughen him right up for what will be a genuine 2100m slog.

10 Ticked (Bet Now: $16.00) is a former Godolphin mare who appears to be enjoying life with Joe Pride. Was a drifter in betting when winning over 1800m at Hawkesbury last start but she did it impressively and was throttled down late, as if Josh Adams had something left. Has run well up to 2200m before, so the trip is no issue and she’s on her home track.

1 Test The World (Bet Now: $2.00) is a quality mare for Bjorn Baker who ran over 1100m at Rosehill last time out and aided by a nice steer from Tim Clark, the mare surged in the straight and dug in to fend off the heavily backed Bon Amis. Only third up here so there should be room to improve and she has a good record on her home track.

7 Bratislava (Bet Now: $6.50) is a James Cummings trained four year old who has done most of his racing at the midweeks at Canterbury but he has earned a crack at this level after lumping 61.5kg to win first up at Canterbury, beating stablemate Malaise, who ran okay last Saturday at Randwick. Has upside and is a second up winner.

3 Il Mio Destino (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing in really good form at the moment. Resumed with an all the way win at Canterbury before coming back from 1250m to 1100m and bumping into Invincible Quest, who was heavily backed. Races well on her home track, should lead for fun and stable is going great guns at the moment.

I think there is some really good value each way here in the shape of 7 Coolring (Bet Now: $8.00). Bjorn Baker trains this veteran and despite being unsuited in three runs this prep, he has run really well, the latest coming three weeks back at Rosehill behind Uptown Lad, who won last Saturday. Looks the leader and at the 1400m start at this track, that is the spot you want.

1 Supply And Demand (Bet Now: $3.80) is the big watch. Failed in the Railway at Ascot but had excuses when wide most of the way and got into several bumping duels on the turn. The question is has he recovered from that? He must have if the stable are continuing with the prep. His best form wins this, but I just want to watch.

6 Nancy (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented mare for the Snowden camp who ran last Saturday in the Razor Sharp where she was wide with cover for the trip and tried hard but gave away too much start behind Zestful. She was six weeks between runs there, so she should improve off that and she has a really good record at Warwick Farm.

Trusting the eye with 4 Man Of Choice.(Bet Now: $6.00). Had really good market support at odds when resuming a fortnight back at Rosehill but just didn’t quite get the luck he wanted when required and could have placed with clear behind Drachenfels. He was first up after a 14 month break there so second up syndrome a query, but he has the talent/class factor over most of these.

5 Milwaukee (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Michael Moroney trained galloper who is three weeks between runs since racing on the bog at Rosehill where he attempted to lead all the way but he couldn’t pick his feet up in the straight when fifth to Uptown Lad, who won last Saturday, so the form does read very well, as does his form prior in Melbourne.

2 Better Not Blue (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute pest but he can bob up around the money from time to time and is this is the sort of race he could indeed do that. He too comes through the Uptown Lad race at Rosehill but he eased back to last and pretty much stayed there for the duration despite some solid bets suggesting he’d run well. Won his lone start here and if he can get a drag up up to the turn, he’s got the finishing burst to beat these.

3 Noire (Bet Now: $3.00) is a mare who has returned in great order for Chris Waller. Landed some good bets with a sharp turn of foot to get the job done first up before going to Rosehill a fortnight back where she was again off the map and with help from a lovely McEvoy steer, the mare was too strong in the straight. The Warwick Farm 1400m looks ideal for her and she should be just about at peak fitness.

6 Pecans (Bet Now: $3.50) is a former Godolphin mare who has been thriving since Joe Pride has taken over. Lot to like about her last start win in the mud here. She was off the bit on the turn and looked to be struggling a touch but she dug in and attacked the line final 75m to get the win. Rises in grade/depth, but deserves her chance.

9 Diapason (Bet Now: $16.00) looks the clear overs in this race. Just put a line through her first up run at Ipswich where she really struggled to pick up on the bog track behind Pegapus, who has come out and won at Doomben since, so the form reads well, and she couldn’t have trialled any better recently at Rosehill. Big improver.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Noire

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Akkadian

VALUE: Race Seven Number 7 Coolring

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1. 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7, 10

Leg Four: 3, 6

$50 Investment= 25% of the dividend if successful

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