23/11/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Ballarat this Saturday where it is Ballarat Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Going the way of 11 Gina’s Hope (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) for Mitch Freedman. Loved the way she found the line two back at Geelong behind Smart Coupe in a Listed race before racing in the Maybe Mahal on Cup Day at Flemington when back and working home okay late behind Teleplay, who won again last Saturday to tick that form off. Back to a Mares 78, 1200m, on her home track, hard to beat.

3 Lady Of Crebilly (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for Phillip Stokes that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Group lll Proud Miss during the Adelaide Carnival when near the speed and was held but far from disgraced when third to Lady Cosmology. Been given a good break and her recent Cranbourne trial was more than encouraging to the eye. Claim for Stockdale certainly helps.

12 Great Duchess (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a Greg Eurell trained mare that resumes. This girl is having her first run as a 4YO. Last raced at Flemington during the Winter over the mile when too good for Sure Knee, who at the time was flying, so that form does read well for this and she did look pretty good in a recent Cranbourne trial win. 1200m is short of her best but has a touch of class.

Going with 3 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $1.75 TOP ODDS), who resumes for the Maher/Eustace stable. This girl really came of age last prep, winning a few races in such impressive fashion and did run well last start down the straight course here behind Gytrash. She’s had a couple of jumpouts in readiness for her return, firstly at Kyneton before a nice piece of work in a Sandown jumpout. Happy to be on her.

13 Prince Of Caviar (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) will always have a boom and a following given his mum is the great mare Black Caviar. I think he’s somewhat limited re ability compared to the hype, but he’s handy enough to go close to beating these. He resumed at Bendigo when a short priced elect and looked the winner but had no answers for the finale produced by Mumbles. That reads well for this.

2 Big Reel (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is an absolute speed demon that will lead this field up and look the winner for a fair way. He ran down the straight over 1100m at Flemington two weeks ago when leading and giving an okay kick but was outclassed late behind Halvorsen. That form looks to read well enough for a 70 race and with the claim, he’ll take some running down.

Found this a very tricky race. 4 Defibrillate (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a Patrick Payne trained stayer who is in ripping form at the moment. Won well on Moe Cup Day before racing over 2500m under the lights at the Valley when getting the dream run in transit before getting clear air on the turn and finishing best to win impressively. Harder here, but hard to get away from the stable and how well they’re going.

3 Creedence (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is just about in career best form for the Hayes/Dabernig team. He comes through the 2800m race on Cup Day at Flemington where I thought Williams gave the stayer every chance from where he was in the run but just no match for Shared Ambition, a horse being talked up as a Group l horse. If you believe the hype, that has to be good form for this.

9 Saddle The Sun (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks a little query at 2600m, but his effort at Flemington two weeks ago was enormous given he was wide no cover for the trip and given there was a decent headwind, he was entitled to finish last, but kept finding and in the end, was only bloused late by Savvy Oak. On his home track and with better luck in running, he can take this out.

I’m keen on 7 La Girl (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This girl debuted on Cup Day down the straight and was very green when under pressure but kept on and was good in defeat when fourth. Has since had a clockwise jumpout here last Thursday and she was the standout of the morning, doing everything right from the front. Happy to be in her corner.

6 Euphoric Summer (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is a well bred filly for the Price/Kent stable that has been given a little freshen up since debuting in the Debutant at Caulfield when not having much luck in the straight when second to impressive winner Tanker. Jumped out clockwise last Thursday at Ballarat and while visually she was the standout, the time was relatively slow.

11 Soul Obsession (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of I Am Invincible for the Anthony Freedman camp that is on debut. She had a clockwise trial here the same morning as those mentioned above and looked to go about her business pretty well I thought and when asked for an effort, responded nicely. Stable should always be respected with their first starters.

Pretty keen here on 5 Rocking Eagle (Bet Now: $7.50) for Michael Moroney. Impressive debut winner at Bairnsdale before going to 1300m on Bendigo Cup Day and loved the way he found the line late when a close up second to impressive winner Oasis Girl, who has run okay since. Been kept on ice for this race and 1400m on the big track just looks the perfect set up for him.

1000m straight to 1400m is a little query with 1 Can’t Be Done (Bet Now: $2.40) but he’s a talented animal for sure and brings good form. Resumed over 1000m down the straight on Cup Day when given a sweet ride just off the speed and loomed to win, but had no answers for the finale produced by Garner. That looks really good form for this and up in trip suits. Straight to 1400m is the query.

3 Cassius (Bet Now: $17.00) is a son of Sebring for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. This guy showed good talent as a juvenile, including an impressive win over the mile at Bendigo. Trialled well enough at Benalla and has followed that up with a jumpout at Bendigo, so for mine, he’s had a decent enough grounding for 1400m first up and this is a winnable race.

I was against 1 Bumper Blast (Bet Now: $2.80) when he contested the Greys race on Oaks Day over 1400m given he was jumping from a maiden to a 90 race, but gee he was impressive and won like a good horse, with something in reserve on the line I thought. Not worried by the weight rise and he has plenty more to offer one would assume. He’s the one to beat, clearly.

Want to give 4 O’Tauto (Bet Now: $2.70) another chance. Beat all bar Harbour Views first up on Geelong Cup Day before going to the Country Final on Oaks Day and I’m not sure he got the clearest paths of straight and should have finished a bit closer behind Star Missile. Third up, he should be at peak fitness now and he does seem a horse who needs to be outside runners with room to move.

The interesting one is 13 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $7.50). He was disappointing behind Harbour Views at Geelong but his effort in the Final at Flemington was outstanding. Was three and four wide no cover for the entire trip yet kept chipping away and was really good in defeat when a close up fifth to Star Missile. If he can produce anything similar to that, he’ll run well.

6 Over Exposure (Bet Now: $7.50) looks the safe option. The McEvoy stable trains this guy, who is first up, having not raced since the R A Lee Stakes during the Adelaide Carnival when a narrow second to Land Of Plenty, who at his best is a Group l horse, so that form does read quite well, he usually sprints well fresh and loved the way he went in a recent Tatura trial win.

A strongly run 1400m looks a good set up for the hard fit/in form 1 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $5.50), who comes here off the back of a last start win on Cup Day over 1400m when sitting just off the speed before being presented clear air in the straight and finished best to score a narrow and sharp win. He’s flying this guy and with a solid tempo in front, he’ll get his chance.

Third up at 1400m looks a good set up for 8 Critical Thinking (Bet Now: $23.00) for the Brent Stanley camp. This guy ran over 1200m on Kyneton Cup Day last time out where he was back last in the run after a poor beginning and worked home well, but was no match for Persuader, who was impressive in winning. Bigger track, 1400m, fitter…ticks plenty of boxes.

5 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $3.10) is an absolute ripper for the Maher/Eustace stable that has won his past two. Tough, gritty win to get the job done two back at Rosehill before going to the Cranbourne Cup where Williams landed him in the plum spot just off the speed and showed good change up speed when asked for the effort and was convincing. He’ll only run well again.

The way 2 Suzuka Devious (Bet Now: $8.50) is racing, he wants 2400m, so remaining at 2000m is the niggle with him, but in terms of class and form, he’s the pony to watch out for. Thought his Caulfield Stakes run was full of merit behind Cape Of Good Hope before going to the Mackinnon where the tempo was against him but found the line well enough behind Magic Wand. This is a massive drop in depth/grade and a proven weight carrier.

16 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $14.00) pulled out a near career best PB in the Matriarch. Wasn’t really suited by the slow tempo but under Ryan Moore, she kept finding and surged late to just miss out on the win when a close up fourth to Oceanex. 2000m+ is her go in life I feel and with that hard 2000m run under the belt, that should hold her in good stead for this assignment.

This just looks a perfect kick off point for 1 Ef Troop (Bet Now: $5.00), formerly with Tony Gollan but is now with the McEvoys. Started to find his 2YO form towards the end of last prep and looked impressive before the stable switch. Now with the new stable and his two trials leading in have been great, both times being pushed out and responding well, so he’s had a decent enough grounding to beat these.

7 King Of Hastings (Bet Now: $4.40) is a son of Ilovethiscity for Anthony Freedman that has been kept on ice since Moir Night at the Valley when placing in a 3YO race behind Barcali. Given a freshen up and his trial win last week at Cranbourne was pretty good to the eye. Has the right racing pattern, he tries hard and will look the winner at some stage I’m sure. There is a bit of depth to this field though.

3 Star Fall (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Zoustar resuming for the Maher/Eustace team. This bloke had a pretty good Summer/Autumn prep, winning his first three runs for the prep before looking a tired horse towards the end. He does seem to race well with fresh legs and his recent jumpout was quite good. Like him fresh at this kind of race, lands on speed and will take some beating.

Third up from a spell, 16 Esperance (Bet Now: $3.80) should just about be hard fit now. Tempo was against him first up on Cox Plate Day behind Fine Dane before racing down the Flemington straight and looking the winner when he hit the front, but found Halvorsen too good on the day. He’s got hard fitness under the belt now, and better suited around a bend I feel.

Fascinating runner is 1 Great Again (Bet Now: $5.50), a multiple Stakes winner from WA that is with Lindsey Smith and makes his Victorian debut, having not raced since sitting on speed in the Idyllic Prince at Belmont in August and fought hard to get the win. Gets in well after the claim for Stockdale, gate one and should really get run of the race stuff.

14 Smart Coupe (Bet Now: $15.00) deserves another chance. Class got her home first up on Geelong Cup Day before racing down the straight on Cup Day where she was well held but far from disgraced behind Tactical Advantage in a somewhat messy race. She’s much better suited on a bending track and third up now, she should just about be ready to produce her peak.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Bumper Blast

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 1 Ef Troop

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 11 Gina’s Hope

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 2, 5, 7, 12, 16

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 16

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