22/7/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A really solid nine event meeting has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

8 Dollar For Dollar (Bet Now: $3.70) is a smart gelding for the Tony McEvoy camp who resumed with a spank job of his rivals at Balaklava before racing at Gawler (Metro) a fortnight back where he didn’t seem to like racing on the sloppy ground and couldn’t come on behind Lady Silhouette. McEvoy loves bringing his SA runners to Melbourne and that formula does produce success eg Super Haze.

10 Spearhead (Bet Now: $26.00) looks a knockout chance here at odds. Saab Hassan mare who ran last Saturday at Caulfield and just looked to overdo it on speed and that left her gassed late behind Orient Line. Should get the sweet trip off the pace and she’ll be hoping for a bit of give in the track.

6 Approved Anger (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented gelding for the Darren Weir camp who ran over 1600m at Caulfield three weeks back where he was ridden a bit upside down when on speed and just feeling the pinch late behind Coldstone. He is much better when ridden with cover and if that eventuates, he can bounce back.

5 Sea The Sparkle (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the one to beat here. Smart mare for Waratah Thoroughbreds who resumed at Sandown last week where she was hard in the market and aided by a lovely ride from Craig Williams, she surged hard nearer the inside and was dominant on the line. Looks to have enormous upside and the Flemington mile should be ideal.

6 Diapason (Bet Now: $3.90) is a handy Chris Waller trained mare who has been very consistent this time, she tries hard and is hardly far away from the action. She comes through the Whirlpool race at Sandown on June 28 where she tried hard and loomed to beat that mare but she packed too many punches. I think with a more cold ride, she can be more effective.

4 Jacqui’s Joy (Bet Now: $16.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but I think she can add some value here at a good price, provided the breaks go her way. She ran in the Leilani Final here a fortnight back and really had no hope the way the race was run, but she closed off well late and clocked some pretty good splits. She can sit much closer from the gate and is only carrying 51kg.

4 Anchor Bid (Bet Now: $1.55) should put this field away. This Darren Weir trained filly comes through the Taj Rossi final a fortnight back where she got a mile back in the run, and was slightly held up, but worked home strongly behind Royal Symphony. That is clearly the right form for this race. Should be winning.

1 Antipas (Bet Now: $9.50) is a nice type for Tony McEvoy who debuted over 1300m on the Geelong Synthetic on June 30 where he got into a position a touch worse than midfield yet finished off with purpose when second to Lady Seabring. Quickly up to the 1800m is the query, but he appears to have enormous upside.

3 St Vaduz (Bet Now: $6.00) is a well bred colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team who has let the punters down in both career outings. Plugged to the line on debut on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to Bendigo where he didn’t let down well at all on the heavy track. Up to 1800m could well suit him and always respect the stable and their juveniles.

Looks such a lovely race for 8 Portman (Bet Now: $2.50). Above average gelding for the Danny O’Brien camp who resumed over 1200m at Caulfield three weeks ago and you had to like the way he closed his race off late in the piece when a close up third to Leodoro. He should come right on from that and he loves racing on his home track.

4 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $3.70) is a talented three year old who takes on the older horses here due to his rating but I think he can measure up here. He ran in the Creswick down the straight here two weeks back where he sat off the pace with cover before Rawiller got him into the clear and he charged late, just missing out on the win when third to Highland Beat. Unknown at 1400m but I think he’ll handle it.

3 Eximius (Bet Now: $15.00) had been a while between wins but it was good to see him get another on the board last time out at Echuca where he lumped the 61kg on the soft track and finished best in a driving go. He does race well at Flemington and does get some weight relief. Just has to overcome the nasty gate.

7 Ruby Sea (Bet Now: $3.90) clearly on top for me here. Smart filly for Ciaron Maher who was a few weeks between runs when racing in the Rivette Final here a fortnight ago where she was given a charmed ride by Nolen and loomed to win but the hard fit Spanish Reef proved too good. Now she’s hard fit, she’ll be stronger at the end of the mile and is the one to beat.

5 First Approach (Bet Now: $5.50) was solid in the market when racing in the Silver Bowl Final two weeks back where he did a bit of work from the gate and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off but was still game in defeat behind Willi Willi. He is bursting to win a race in town. Just needs better luck.

10 St Franco (Bet Now: $9.50) is a former Darren Weir trained youngster that had his first run for Team Corstens three weeks back at Caulfield where I thought he was an eye catcher late when warming to the task to be not far off My Paisann. Up to the mile looks ideal and he should take some beating.

8 Divine Mr Artie (Bet Now: $4.80) gets the nod for me here. Talented gelding for the McCarthy camp who resumed over 1200m at Caulfield where he got back off the pace and never really looked likely but I loved his finale behind Leodoro. Got a good record down the straight finds a very winnable race here.

3 Rough Justice (Bet Now: $6.50) is a consistent type for the Ellerton/Zahra yard, but is just finding it hard to win. He comes through the Victorian Sprint Final a fortnight back where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but was no match late for the brilliance of Ability. He finds a winnable race here and though he won’t be getting my money, a win is certainly not out of the question.

6 Fast Cash (Bet Now: $16.00) really isn’t one of mine, but I can see him blousing these with the right run. He hasn’t raced for a few weeks since racing over 1200m at the Valley where he worked home well late behind Lord Da Vinci. Horror record at Flemington but draws to stalk the speed and have the last say.

6 Victory Downs (Bet Now: $9.00) could be a sharp improver here up to 2000m. He ran in the Winter Championship Final here two weeks back and you could make a case that he should have won but just had no luck in the straight when appearing to be bolting. On that run, the 2000m is no drama and looms large.

5 Magic Consol (Bet Now: $5.50) looks ready to tackle the 2000m now after racing over 1800m at Caulfield three weeks back where Craig Williams gave him a peach of a ride off the pace and he looked all over a winner but he couldn’t withstand the finishing burst of Radipole. 2000m looks ideal and he should be just about ready fitness wise.

2 Extra Zero (Bet Now: $9.00) is a grand campaigner for the Hayes/Dabernig team who comes through the Country Cup here a fortnight ago where he got back in a race dominated by those nearer the speed and tried hard but had to settle for second to Pacodali. Flemington 2000m is his go and he is a must for exotics.

1 Moonlites Choice (Bet Now: $3.00) is a quality mare for the Weir camp who is on the seven day back up after racing at Caulfield last Saturday where she was given a peach by Williams and got the job done impressively over 1200m, and she charged to the line and through it, so the 1400m here from a plum draw is ideal.

5 Swampland (Bet Now: $13.00) was crunched in betting when racing over 1200m at Cranbourne last time out and for punters it looked a nightmare on the turn as she was bolting with no clear air but Mertens shoved into the clear and she finished off hard to get the win. That tells me that 1400m will be no issue and she has run well in town before.

11 Good Oh (Bet Now: $10.00) for me here. This girl ran over 1400m at Sandown last Wednesday where she tried to make ground on a tearaway leader and did hit a flat spot but her last 150m was very good late. Flemington 1400m looks perfect for her and if she can get a nice cart into the race, she should take some beating.

11 Tahi (Bet Now: $6.50) is a beautifully bred gelding for the O’Brien camp who debuted at Geelong on the turf and had a bit of market support late in the piece. They got it right as he led all the way and bolted in, running time. Draws the right part of the track, down in the weights and I’m sure he would have had a look down the straight given he’s trained here.

2 Highland Beat (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hard horse to trust but he does try hard so not many would have begrudged his win in the Creswick here a fortnight back. He was ridden superbly by Beau Mertens, who found the best ground out wide and finished best in a driving go. Back to 1100m is perfect and should take some beating.

7 Hay Bale (Bet Now: $8.50) is a consistent type for the Robbie Griffiths yard. Just can’t quite crack it for a win. Loomed in the Creswick and chased hard but had to settle for a narrow second to Highland Beat. Meets that horse 5kg better off here, so I think he may turn the tables and you’ll probably get a good price.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 8 Portman

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Victory Downs

VALUE: Race Nine Number 11 Tahi

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 4, 11

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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