The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Belmont Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:09) Powelly's Punters Plate 1300m
Taking a chance on the first starter 8 Montelena (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Mcauliffe stable. Daughter of Rubick on debut and made her one to follow via ‘From The Trials’ a couple of weeks back after an impressive trial win last Monday at Lark Hill when back off the speed before presenting wider on the turn and finishing off very nicely under riding to win in decent time relative to the session. Keen to see how she goes.
5 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $3.20) is getting better with racing for the Adam Durrant stable. On the quick back up after winning impressively at this track/distance last Wednesday under a lovely steer from Pike, ducking and weaving his way through the field and driving through late to win. Looks to be a bit of depth to this two year old contest but she’s heading in the right direction.
6 Eye Of The Day (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Paul Jordan trained filly who comes through the Marocchino race from two weeks ago when attempting to lead all the way and gave a decent enough kick but couldn’t quite get the job done. Looks to get the lead once again and now she has the 1300m run under the belt, should be better off and hopefully will be stronger late.
Race 2. (14:49) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap (64+) 2100m
They usually take their turn every two weeks in these staying races. The one with upside is 7 Musical Art (Bet Now: $6.50), who resumed over the mile at Northam when given every chance in the run by Lee Newman but he couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Skinnen Tins. Placed in his lone run at the track/distance, is a second up winner and Pike takes over so ticks plenty of boxes.
3 Eye Art (Bet Now: $4.00) is in a real purple patch of form at the moment for Lindsey Smith, winning four of her past five, her last two coming at this track. Two back got the job done over 2200m before stepping back to 2000m and was there to be beaten but found plenty late and was too good. Patrick Scorse takes over and this is a great chance for the kid to impress.
Up in trip should suit 5 Mr Alby (Bet Now: $34.00). Paula Wagg trains this gelding, who has had two runs back from a spell, both runs coming over unsuitable trips, so hard to get a real guide on how he’s going, but is getting out to an ideal distance now and does have a really good third up record, so at decent odds, I think he could be one to have something on perhaps 1×3.
Race 3. (15:29) Darren Richardson 50th Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1000m
9 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $2.25) is a talented daughter of Bernadini resuming for the Williams camp. This girl hasn’t raced since the Lee Steere during the Summer Carnival when running a game second to the above average three year old The Velvet King. I think 1200-1400m is when she’ll come into her own, but she does have a touch of class on her side and her recent trial was good.
3 Double Jeopardy (Bet Now: $4.00) hasn’t really had much luck go his way since arriving from Victoria. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago and I thought he was very good in defeat behind Battle Storm after sitting on a good speed and doing work in the run. He’s bursting to win a race for the Pearce stable and from the draw, I think he gets a great chance here.
10 Vital Blast (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Justine Erkelens trained gelding who looks a key chance. Resumed in the Battle Storm race from two weeks ago where he was off the speed before being presented clear air in the straight and was there to win, but I reckon his condition just gave out late. With that run under the belt now, he should take some beating against this lot IMO.
Race 4. (16:09) Crown Perth Handicap (70+) 1000m
13 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $1.70) looks a really good sprinter in the making for Adam Durrant. Is 3/3 to start his career, resuming two weeks ago at this track/distance when sitting off a good speed and producing a brilliant finale to get the job done, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. Looks Stakes class at least and with that in mind, should put these away.
5 How To Fly (Bet Now: $23.00) would almost be on top if she drew a soft gate. Just not sure where she will get to from the barrier but off the trials, I think she’s absolutely flying for Adam Durrant, most notably her trial late last month behind Great Again, who won first up. She’ll likely get back and launch late. Just may have to concede too much head start to some nice types.
Want to be forgiving of 9 Mantime (Bet Now: $71.00) and his failure from last Saturday here behind Multiverse. He had to chase a hot speed a fair way out and that just gassed him in a race suited to those that had the drag up. Did trial up nicely prior to that and at his best, he can measure up and run well here, so I think while he won’t win, he’s one to be included in multiples.
Race 5. (16:50) Happy 60th Diane Williams Handicap (64+) 1600m
14 Send My Love (Bet Now: $4.40) for me. Alan Matthews trains this mare, who was relatively solid in betting when resuming at the midweeks at this track/distance and if you were on, it was a bit of a hard watch. She never really got clear at any stage and clearly should have been in the finish. Like the booking of Pike and fitter now, she looks one of the hardest to beat.
1 Salon Du Cheval (Bet Now: $7.50) is the interesting runner. On the seven day back up for Lindsey Smith after racing over 2000m here last Saturday when attempting to lead all the way and I thought Pike gave the gelding every chance but just found Come Play With Me too good once again. Back to the mile within a week is a little query, but the overall depth isn’t as strong I don’t think.
6 Resistance (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing really well for Fred Kersley but she can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday where she was given a lovely ride and presented to be a winning threat in the straight but just lacked the killer blow when third to Lordhelpmerun. Placed in her lone run at the mile and I suspect the firmer footing will be more to her liking.
Race 6. (17:25) HG Bolton Sprint 1200m
10 Valour Road (Bet Now: $1.45) returns home to WA after a two run prep in Adelaide, seeing him win the Euclase against his own age before contesting the Goodwood where he was far from disgraced behind Despatch. Hasn’t raced for five weeks and has been kept up to the mark with a very pleasing trial here last Thursday. If he’s right, which he appears to be, he’ll be hard to hold out.
3 Electric Light (Bet Now: $4.20) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize. Comes through the Beaufine from two weeks ago when sitting back in the run and was presented to win but found Market Ruler too good and considering that girl sat wide no cover on speed and still won, not sure she turns the tables, but gets a good draw and up to 1200m will suit.
For exotics, I’d certainly include the Chris Gangemi trained 4 Lockroy (Bet Now: $16.00), a handy gelding that is first up, having not raced since the Pinjarra Classic when back in the run and pretty much staying there behind Vital Silver. He’s a good horse when produced with fresh legs and looked well enough in a trial here last week. Inside gate and down in the weights, he could surprise.
Race 7. (18:00) Belmont Guineas 1600m
The lead here for me is that Pike has jumped off True Attraction to remain on 9 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $3.20), with a big key for her being the blinkers going on for the first time. Looked in need of the run first up behind The Velvet King before producing great late splits in defeat behind Mrs Brown’s Boy. Blinkers will sharpen her up and if she can sit that little bit closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous and extremely hard to beat.
1 True Attraction (Bet Now: $6.00) does look one of the key chances. Loved the way he attacked the line to win over 1400m here two weeks ago when off the speed before Pike produced some magic in getting the dream splits and the horse repaid the ride by digging in when asked. Gate makes things tricky and do have to respect the fact that Pike has chosen to ride Mystery Miss.
I thought perhaps the mile would be a stretch for 12 Forgotten Star (Bet Now: $18.00) but with the soft gate, I think she’ll be fine in that regard and is a definite outside winning chance. Ran third to True Attraction in that race mentioned above and her run had merit despite not attacking the line. Had to come wide, make a sustained and that probably told late. From the good draw, she can sit closer and not spend as many petrol tickets.
Race 8. (18:40) Glenroy Chaff Handicap (76+) 1400m
11 Military Ruler (Bet Now: $3.00) to repeat the dose from first up, his first win since Moses parted the sea. A nation roared for a hero three weeks ago given it had been such a long time since his last win but some Pike magic came to the fore aboard the gelding and he was much too good. If he reproduces that run again, he’s the likely winner, but the query is can he repeat the dose.
I didn’t know how to treat 3 Great Again (Bet Now: $2.60) first up over 1300m here two weeks ago because while I know he’s talented, I thought his trial was just okay, but he’s a proper race day horse and his toughness came to the fore late in winning impressively. He goes even better second up and the fresh run/trials indicated that he will improve with racing. Leading chance.
2 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $13.00) is four weeks between runs for Adam Durrant since racing over the mile here when back in the run and not really coming on at all as a winning threat but did make up ground behind Battle Torque. He does race well when having fresh legs and though doesn’t have the greatest record at Belmont, he’s one to chuck in multiples I think.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Valour Road
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 9 Festival Miss
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 8 Montelena
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 6, 11, 14
Leg Two: 10
Leg Three: 1, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 11, 14, 16
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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