22/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, Mornington Cup day

Nine races have been set down for Mornington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Mornington Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Mornington Cup

Landed with 5 Neutralism (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the opener. This More Than Ready filly debuted on Cranbourne Cup Day in the Spring when off the speed and kept chasing in a solid debut effort behind a sharp filly, Remedies. Been given a good break and I thought she trucked on speed in a recent Avoca jumpout. Think she’ll either lead or box seat from the gate. Either way, gets run of the race and is hard to beat.

3 Chilled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good race experience/fitness on her side, so she commands respect. She did everything right when winning here a few weeks back, leading throughout and fending off Stretan Angel in a driving finish. That was her first run since December so with room for improvement, her racing style, she has to be respected against these, and the runner up spanked them last Saturday, so the form clearly reads well.

4 Long Lost Friend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for mine. Shamoline Warrior filly for Ben Brisbourne that debuted over 1100m at Bendigo where she was kept relatively safe in betting and that respect was justified as the filly led throughout and she was strong to the line in winning. Clearly there is more depth to this line up but off the debut win, she appeals as a key winning chance.

9 Warm Smile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had four runs in Australia for the Maher/Eustace camp and is knocking on the door. She was kept relatively safe in betting when racing over the mile at Sandown last time when just off the speed throughout and she tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to in form Vittoriosa. Hard fit now and she does seem to be reacting positively when ridden with a sit.

5 Thought Provoking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since November 23 when placing over 2100m at Sandown when a narrow second to Jayrod Too, trying her guts out but couldn’t get past the leader. She is a mare who can sprint well fresh and has jumped out well leading in, so she certainly appeals.

Back up to the mile I do like for 7 Soaring Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She had performed well at 1600m in a couple of runs before going back to 1500m last Monday at Sandown where she attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick. Just lacked the change up speed to put them away late when fourth to Unusual Culture. Like her back up in trip and with home track advantage, she appeals.

11 Squad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unbeaten in two runs this time in for Team Hawkes and confident he measures up against these. Dominant all the way win fresh at Bendigo before going to Sale where he did a bit of work to find the front but even though he burned the candle early, he found and drew clear late for a dominant win. He seems best suited at 1000m so sticking at that trip here, he appeals.

3 Ranveer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Matt Laurie trained four year old that is a big watch. He hasn’t raced since the 2021 Blue Sapphire at Caulfield when down the track behind Extreme Warrior. Has clearly had his issues given the break between runs but his trial and jumpout work suggests he’s ready to rock and roll and on the home deck, he will be popular.

13 Fasuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at metro level but he’s earned a crack at it off the back of a strong win under the lights at Cranbourne, giving them a start and a beating, which was difficult to do for that respective meeting, especially at 1000m. It was one of the better wins of the night and he has run well in town previously, so with a touch of brilliance, he has to be respected.

7 Convener (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be the way to go. Former English galloper that made his Australian debut for the Maher/Eustace camp at Sandown where he should have won but had zero luck in the straight, eventually cutting back to inside ground, inferior footing, and drove hard late to just miss. Fitter, up to 2000m, good upside to come, he’ll do me.

Nothing wrong with the way 2 Golden Crusader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has gone about it this time in. He is looking to make it three wins on the bounce, leading throughout to win the last two, firstly at The Valley on William Reid Night before a dominant win at Sandown last Monday. He handles all conditions, he’s in form, good racing style…very likeable.

6 Mystery Island (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. He’s had a few homes throughout his career but now finds himself with Shane Jackson. His last run was over the mile at Sandown a few weeks back when near last in the run and was never really a threat but his finale was more than sound I thought behind Saint Bathans. Like him up in trip and off his best WA form, he can take this out for sure.

This just screams of a set up for 5 Our Redente (Bet Now:  $SP.00). First up on the home track, Cup Day…clear intent. He did a very good job when last in work, winning four races and establishing himself as a Saturday class animal. Jumpout here was very nice and went much better in a Cranbourne trial when winning. He’s a very genuine horse that maps ideally and will be strong at the end.

11 Miss Middle Park (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. She put together a couple of strong wins over 1200m at The Valley before going to the straight at Flemington when back in the pack but got clear air and drove hard to run a narrow second to Stormbolt. She does tend to race best with fresh legs and maps to get a good run in transit from the gate. Leading chance.

3 Extreme Flight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the quality of the race and that will carry him a long way towards victory. He last raced a month back at Sandown when back in the run and making up headway without threatening behind Faretti, who would be favourite if he lined up here. Back to 1200m is interesting but if he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough to take this out.

4 Dashing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Aaron Purcell. Unlucky second two back in the Morphettville Guineas on Adelaide Cup Day, somewhat slaughtered by Melham. He then went to the mile at Sandown a fortnight back and was very game in defeat after sitting on speed, running a narrow third to Gringotts. He was around a month between runs there, so with room for improvement, he rates highly.

1 Elkington Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field and that will carry him a long way. He was far from disgraced in the Australian Guineas behind star filly Legarto. Freshened up and came back to 1400m in the Bendigo Guineas where he got off the speed and tried his guts out in defeat when third to Waltz On By. Fitter and back up in trip, he appeals as a key threat.

2 Grand Pierro (Bet Now:  $SP.00), you’d think, has eyes on either the SA Derby/QLD Derby. He hasn’t raced since his first up run, which was over 1400m at Flemington, where he got back to near last in the run and took a while to wind into his work but was very good late in the piece behind Meridius, finishing a close up fourth. Might want the run and further, but he’s another with a touch of quality.

2 The Inferno (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. He resumed in The Discovery on Good Friday at Geelong where he was specked at odds but the way the track played, where it was up/in, he had zero chance of getting into the contest, finishing down the track behind Curran. He is trained on the track and is a much better dry track horse, so he gets conditions to suit and for me, this is D-Day.

4 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been somewhat of an enigma for the Tolson/Proctor camp but his run of outs came to an end in The Discovery at Geelong on Good Friday. He was very strong in the run to the line but I will say the heavy bias towards those near the fence certainly played into his hands and he was impressive in letting down to get the better of them. Harder here, but home track advantage helps his cause.

9 Belsielle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Feek and confident she’ll take holding out. Total forgive in the Abell when copping backwash from the nasty fall, so the stable backed her up a week later at Flemington and I thought she found the line quite well from off the speed when third to Veranskova. She’ll be sitting off the speed but should take beating if she’s within range.

2 Camorra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given a decent look here IMO. He is is a dry track or bust horse and his two Australian runs have come on bogs, firstly in the Melbourne Cup then two weeks back in the Easter Cup behind a smart animal, White Marlin. He’ll strike a firmer deck this weekend and getting to 2400m, off his overseas form, he’d spank these, so don’t dismiss him.

5 Hezashocka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to command respect for the Price/Kent camp. He ran in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick a fortnight back and I thought he ran a super race in defeat after a suck run behind the speed, finishing a close up fourth to Dubai Honour. That form is A1 for this. Just needs to tick the 2400m box and should that eventuate here, he’ll look the winner at some stage I am sure.

14 Yaphet (Bet Now:  $SP.00), for the first time this prep, is placed to advantage in a race he can win. First up run was a real eye catcher and then in three subsequent runs, he went down the Australian Cup path, resulting in a down the track effort behind Cascadian. He’s much better suited at this level and provided there is petrol left in the tank, he appeals big time as a knockout chance.

11 Maktoob (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 2/2 since arriving in Australia and no reason why he can’t make it a third win. He has been impressive in both starts/wins for Simon Zahra, winning with arrogance fresh at Pakenham before going to Sandown last Monday where he got better as the race went on and was strong to the line in winning. Can only assume he has upside/improvement and if that’s the case, he is the likely winner.

14 Maracana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Both runs back from a spell have come over 1400m, the latest at Sandown where she was last in the run but made up solid ground and was an eye catcher in defeat when a close up fourth to Rumbled Again. Racing like a rise in trip will suit and gets in well after the claim. The only real threat to the favourite.

2 Bookman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He comes through the Warracknabeal Cup where the race shape wasn’t to his liking and he tried to make a sustained run, but being second up, that effort just told late when fourth to Toogoodfortoorak. Like him back on firmer footing and maps to do no work, so don’t pen him.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Our Redente

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Maktoob

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Camorra

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 9

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 14

Leg Four: 11

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