22/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm

Saturday racing in Sydney makes a rare trip to Warwick Farm this weekend where nine races have been set down. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Interesting to see what’s under the hood when it comes to 3 Deterge, (Bet Now: $2.00) a son of Exceed And Excel that is having his first start for James Cummings. He has only had the one public trial, which came a couple of weeks back at Rosehill and looked to move very well when closing off to run a narrow second under minimal pressure. Looks a nice type and I think he’ll go close.

1 Sebrakate (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained son of Sebring who has had four career outings and has been quite good each time he has stepped out. Won his first two starts in Adelaide before coming to Sydney where he ran second to Kiamichi before running fourth to Athiri. Not sure he’s got the upside, but has hard fitness and 1200m should be okay.

7 Girls Are Ready (Bet Now: $9.00) is the hard fit filly for Joe Cleary. Heading towards the Magic Millions with a good performance here and she comes to Saturday grade in winning form after winning last Friday night at Canterbury. Visually, very good, but the race was set up for her and they came home very slowly compared to other races on the night. But she’s a winner and the wet track will be no issue.

It’s hard seeing 1 Hemmerle (Bet Now: $2.30) getting beat unless it’s bad luck. Really promising four year old for Danny Williams who resumed in a 1400m Highway at Rosehill a fortnight ago and was very good late when third to Our Rosemaree. He’ll eat up the extra furlong, the depth isn’t as strong and considering the stable thinks he’s a blackype class horse, he should be putting this field away.

2 Moobi (Bet Now: $3.40) has got the turn of foot to trouble Hemmerle but whether he can do it on a wet track remains to be seen. He has been very impressive in recent times at Scone, showing good change up speed when asked for the effort, and has been doing it with big weights. Hardest test to date, but hard to knock the way he’s going at the moment.

4 Footmark (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Jodie Bohr trained gelding who has been outstanding in recent times. Two wins on the bounce before a fourth in a Highway over 1800m at Randwick. Given six weeks off before racing at Wagga over the mile where he got back in the run but finished off strongly. The query is he wants maybe further but is a horse in form and could add value to exotics.

I’m hoping we can get an each way price about 5 Difficult To Get (Bet Now: $6.50). Jeff Englebrecht trains this mare and I reckon she’s flying. Resumes here off the back of two very sharp trials, the latest coming at Wyong a couple of Mondays back where she ran good time under no pressure, leading throughout. Good fresh horse and likes the 1000m.

If we got a seriously wet track, I’d be all over 7 Heart Conquered (Bet Now: $2.25). I thought Not A Single Doubt was the best wet track sire in Australia but Akeed Mofeed has him covered at this stage, with a 32% winning strike rate with horses on wet ground. This bloke lapped up the bog to win here at the midweeks, beating Deprive, an impressive winner from last Saturday. His best chance will be if we get a wet track.

8 Alart (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Pat Farrell trained mare who has been around forever it seems yet continues to pick up decent prizemoney for connections. She resumed at this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back and wasn’t that bad in defeat when a close up fourth to Miss Invincible. Is a second up winner and with the right run she could snare a place/first four.

Nothing race with many winning hopes. Siding with Tom Melbourne’s sister, 4 Araaja (Bet Now: $3.90). Hasn’t won in a very long time but I reckon a win isn’t far off and she wasn’t far off last time when a narrow third to stablemate Abdon at Rosehill. Gets onto a track with give in it, which she will like, and this really is a thin race with no standouts. She gets her chance.

6 Follow Suit (Bet Now: $12.00) creates interest here. Chris Waller trains this stayer, who is first up and normally Waller wouldn’t run them on a wet track unless they either could handle it or are fit enough. I’m tipping he might be ticking both boxes. We know he handles the wet, loves Warwick Farm…trials haven’t been great, but perhaps he could just be a race day horse.

I’d be including 2 The Getaway (Bet Now: $31.00) in multiples back on firmer footing. He ran in the Tip Top race from last Saturday and wasn’t too bad I thought given he was nearer the inside, which clearly wasn’t the spot to be later in the day. Getting out to an ideal trip now and an improved showing back on a dry-ish sort of track certainly wouldn’t surprise me.

I think this is well and truly D-Day for 7 Monsieur Sisu (Bet Now: $3.60). Paul Cave trains this gelding, who has overall been excellent this time in without winning. On face value, maybe a tad dissapointing in the Festival last time but the depth was strong and that form was somewhat franked in the Villiers. Should lead these for fun, on his home track, severely back in depth/grade…he gets his chance.

10 C’Est Davinchi (Bet Now: $6.00) took a while to break the maiden tag but after the win over the 1550m at Canterbury he backed it up with an impressive win at the same track/distance against a field which looked to have depth to it. Up to the mile looks ideal for him and he’s a horse who is in a winning frame of mind and will be strong at the end.

Was expecting a good run from 2 Green Sweet (Bet Now: $21.00) a fortnight back over 2000m at Rosehill but he was a touch poor for my liking behind Abdon. That being said, when they’re running home in a tick over 34, he really has no chance of winning. He’s not that quick. Finds a suitable race here back to the mile and the run prior in the Goulburn Cup was a beauty.

3 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $9.50) will do me here. This mare was outstanding first up behind Seasons before perhaps racing a touch flat second up behind Sweet Deal, but the run was still pretty good all the same. Always have to respect these Warwick Farm horses on their home track, especially on a Saturday meeting, and this mare loves a track with give in it, plus draws the right part of the track.

7 Bella Success (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Chris Waller trained mare who was given a 12/10 steer from J Mac to win here first up on the bog before going to the Sweet Deal race where nothing really went right for her from the start and in the end her run wasn’t too bad behind the John Thompson mare. Hopefully won’t concede too big of a start and be within striking range on the turn.

I didn’t mind 5 So Magic (Bet Now: $9.50) at the decent odds when racing at Rosehill a fortnight back and the little plunge on her almost came off but she had to settle for a narrow second to the in form Sweet Deal. These Warwick Farm trained horses always run well on their home track, especially on a Saturday metro meeting, and she’s a mare in career best form.

4 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $6.50) clearly on top for me. Formerly with Chris Waller, this seven year old is now with Mark Newnham and he has been outstanding in three trials to date, the latest coming here last Tuesday when bolting up under minimal pressure and in each trial has performed very well without the blinkers. New surroundings, new training regime…whatever it is, it’s working.

12 Catesby (Bet Now: $6.00) has been great since joining the Greg McFarlane team. Just missed out two back when nabbed late by Sweet Deal before being on speed again and fighting hard when second to Mapmaker. Won here first up before being sent to McFarlane. He’ll be out of trouble on speed and usually gives 110% each time he steps out.

Didn’t really look at him when first doing the preview, but I have to include 9 Sayed (Bet Now: $26.00) in the numbers. Formerly with Chris Waller, and now with Matty Dale. Certainly capable of beating these if he’s right, he doesn’t mind a track with give and I thought his trial at Nowra was outstanding, closing off under no pressure. Wouldn’t be shocked at all if he got the win.

I’m going to give 8 Gongs (Bet Now: $8.00) one last chance. Liked her at odds last Saturday at Randwick and if you were on, it was an utter nightmare. She should have finished much closer but had no luck getting clear and went around as if it was a barrier trial. I think if the breaks go her way here, I think she can be dangerous, especially if out wide with clear air.

I think we’ll get a real guide here as to just how good 5 Kapajack (Bet Now: $3.40) is. He was well specked when debuting at Rosehill three weeks despite being on debut in a benchmark race but he found plenty late and on the line was the strongest. Heading towards the Magic Millions so would need to run well here to warrant the trip north. Tricky gate, but overcame that on debut and the claim for Brock Ryan certainly helps.

I want to give 13 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $10.00) another look. I didn’t mind her when she resumed here at the midweeks a few weeks ago, assuming she’d swim based on breeding, but she really struggled. Been freshened up and her tick over trial was very good. Maybe might need this run, but don’t want her to go around without me. Can definitely win this.

Tricky race but I’ll side with track specialist 13 Schubert (Bet Now: $8.00). Won and placed in another from three starts here and the other start, he should have won but had no luck. His last couple of runs have come at Rosehill, winning two back before a closing sixth to Sweet Deal, beaten under two lengths. He seems to save his best for Warwick Farm so I’ll go his way.

9 Intuition (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented son of Street Cry that resumes for James Cummings. This bloke hasn’t raced since August 25 when finishing down the track at Rosehill behind the above average galloper Don’t Give A Damn. Two trials leading in have been quite good to the eye and though he generally needs a run, the two trials have looked pretty sharp.

8 Coonawarra (Bet Now: $23.00) is a handy son of Snitzel that is first up for the WaterBott team. This five year old hasn’t raced since early August when racing like a tired horse behind then boom galloper Avilius. Has had three solid trials in readiness for the resumption so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if there was intent to run well here first up and he could well get a soft lead.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Hemmerle

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Invinzabeel

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 Schubert

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 8, 11

Leg Two: 4, 9, 12

Leg Three: 1, 5, 8, 13

Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 13

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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