22/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I’ll just side with 4 Queen La Diva (Bet Now: $4.00), who is on an upward spiral for Darren Weir. Won the maiden impressively two back at Bendigo before taking on three rivals at Sandown and she bolted in. Runner up won last night at the Valley so that form is ticked. Back to 1400m a little query, but hopefully she can get three wide cover and finish over the top.

1 My Pendant (Bet Now: $3.10) looks a promising filly for Danny O’Brien who has won his past two. Did a bit wrong two back at Sandown but was far too good to break the maiden tag before going to the Valley where she produced a lovely turn of foot from off the pace to win impressively. 1400m on her home track looks ideal, on form the one to beat. 60kg the only niggle.

8 Ordell (Bet Now: $13.00) is still a maiden for John Moloney but she’s certainly got the ability to run well for mine. She was well supported when contesting a Kyneton maiden last time. Just not sure she was entirely happy around the tight track when a narrow second. Should do no work from the inside gate and she did make ground behind My Pendant the start prior.

Very tempted to make 5 Hawkshot (Bet Now: $3.90) the good thing on the program. Darren Weir trains this son of Fiorente, who had a three run Autumn prep to kick off his career, and the form around him in each run, including efforts alongside Secret Blaze and Vassilator, just reads so well. Went like a bomb in a November 19 jump out at Camperdown and I’m all over him.

1 O’Tauto (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy three year old for the Greg Eurell team that resumes. He had two runs in the Winter to start his career, scoring an impressive debut win at Cranbourne before racing over 1400m here where he was game in defeat when beaten narrowly by Crockett. Recent Stony Creek trial was just fair, but the cross over nose band wasn’t on so going on race day form.

8 Mischa (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Symon Wilde trained filly who strung together a couple of sharp wins to start the prep before going to the Valley three weeks ago where she was terrible away and threw away her winning prospects. Did a good job in the end when fourth to Behemoth. I think the 1200m down the straight will be okay for her and she is in the mix for sure.

She’s getting to last chance territory but giving 3 Miss Wahoo (Bet Now: $3.90) one last look. Been red hot on her this time in and I was thinking she’d be winning a race or two by now but has managed to place in three of four runs, the latest on Pakenham Cup Day when sitting back in a race completely dominated by Linda Meech on Angelic Spirit. Hopefully big track, up to the mile, she’ll get her chance to finish over the top.

9 Diamond Bow (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to be getting back to somewhere near her best form. She ran over 1400m at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back where she was left flat footed when those in front dashed but she picked up and was good late when third to Kazio. Up to the mile, Williams back on, gate one, she certainly appeals against this lot.

7 Teodora (Bet Now: $11.00) has got the ability to win this but which version of Teodora will turn up? 12 months ago I thought she’d be a star in the Autumn/Spring but she hasn’t gone on with it at all. Resumed in the Angelic Spirit race at Pakenham and in the end I thought she did a god job given she was back after bungling the jump. Up to the mile, with a clean getaway, I think she’s right in the game.

I’m happy to have something each way on last years Pakenham Cup winner 6 Oncidium Ruler (Bet Now: $9.00). I reckon Mick Kent has him ticking over quite nicely and should be hard fit after running a few weeks back at the Valley where he was far from disgraced behind Al Galayel. He’ll love the rise to 2500m and if it comes down to last man standing, he’ll be in the game.

4 Lycurgus (Bet Now: $4.50) can easily bounce back here. Good effort two back at the 2000m here behind Top Prospect before going to the Valley where he was just fair behind Al Galayel and was then taken out of the Pakenham Cup. Track/distance specialist who thrives this time of year and this doesn’t appear to be an overly strong race with little to no depth.

3 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $9.50) looks to be ticking over okay for the Weir camp. He comes through the Werribee Cup where he just got too far back off the pace but once he got going, he did make up ground and was solid late behind dominant winner Mahamedeis. Is a winner up to 2400m and brings different plus is in the right stable so he gets respect from me.

Just leaning the way of 5 Cash Affair (Bet Now: $4.20) for Darren Weir. Ran down the straight here last Saturday where she was one of the first under pressure but responded and actually produced some of the best late splits of the race, suggesting 1400m will be okay, a trip she has placed at twice in as many runs. Tricky gate but will just lean her way in a tough race.

7 Renegade (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Commands that resumes for Tony McEvoy. He hasn’t raced since May 26 at Sandown when down the track over 2100m behind Mazzuro. Like him fresh at 1400m at this level, and he’s certainly showed enough ability from the Autumn to be ultra competitive against this lot. Recent jump out was quite good also.

10 Southern Bolt (Bet Now: $16.00) should handle the step up. Greg Eurell trains this four year old, who ran over 1400m at Echuca last time and he would have been a tragedy beaten had he not got clear but Thornton eventually got him away off heels and he savaged the line late to get the win. His overall form reads pretty well and is a live threat here with the right run.

Tough, tough race. I’ll side the way of 4 Saint Valorem (Bet Now: $12.00) for Cameron Templeton. He was unwanted in betting when racing at Pakenham a couple of weeks back but he finished off with real purpose late under the big weight to run second to Prezado. Lone run down the straight saw him under five lengths from The Quarterback in the Gilgai. That reads quite well for this.

3 Prezado (Bet Now: $6.00) is an Elerton/Zahra trained gelding who took a little while to get another win on the board but it finally came at Pakenham under a lovely ride from Williams. Stalked the speed before finding the better ground out wide and despite taking a little while to put them away, he did and registered career win number two. Now he’s won, he could go on with it.

1000m is short of his best but 1 Atlantic City (Bet Now: $26.00) looks an interesting runner. Kav trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since March 10 when down the track here behind King’s Command. Recent jump out was more than encouraging and he draws wide, which is where the near speed will be. Hopefully he can stalk and have last say here.

1 King’s Command (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting runner. Team Corstens trains this galloper, who hasn’t raced since Manikato Night at the Valley where he ran over 1500m and worked home well enough against the bias behind Tamasa. Dynamite fresh horse and he likes racing at Flemington. If he runs up to his best, surely he’s a threat against these.

4 Haunted (Bet Now: $3.30) is a James Cummings trained gelding who is in a real purple patch at the moment. Hasn’t raced for a few weeks since scoring a dominant win on Ballarat Cup Day, aided by a lovely ride just off the pace from Dwayne Dunn, who remains on. Gate isn’t too bad after scratchings and his last couple of runs have suggested that 1400m is his forte.

Huge watch on 7 All Too Huiying (Bet Now: $15.00), formerly with Gary Moore but is now with Darren Weir. This horse was very hot and cold when trained by Moore in Sydney but his highlight did come over 1800m here on Cup Week last year. Now with Weir, gee I thought the trial was just fair but this horse has never really been a star trialler, and with the Weir polish, he’s a huge watch.

I reckon 12 Nothin Like Harry (Bet Now: $15.00) is worth a throw at the stumps. Won like a really good horse first up on his home track at Albury before going to a Highway at Rosehill and I think had he got clear air at the top of the straight, he would have been right in the finish. Instead, he went around as if it was a barrier trial. Up to 2000m looks ideal and he should love the spacious surroundings of Flemington.

Thankfully 11 Creedence (Bet Now: $4.40) threw away the win at Pakenham because I was on Mr Quickie but if you were on him, apologies. He should have won. He was going to go straight past them but he wanted to duck in badly and threw it away when beaten narrowly by the Weir three year old. If he does everything right, he’ll go close to winning.

8 Freidensberg (Bet Now: $6.50) is a tough, tough campaigner who has showed superb grit and determination to win his past couple, the latest over 1800m at Sandown when fighting hard on speed and just proving too good. Just needs to stretch it to 2000m and I’m sure he’ll be in the game. Rather watch him though than back him first look at 2000m.

I’m banking on the outside fence being the A1 spot to be down the straight so going the way of 17 Usain Bowler (Bet Now: $7.50). He resumed in the 3&4YO Magic Millions at Ballarat where he was well supported and finished off strong but no match for Bel Sonic and Platinum Angel, both above average animals. Overall form reads well and I am hoping he’s drawn the right part of the track.

I’d be shocked if 15 Rox The Castle (Bet Now: $4.80) didn’t run well. Kerry Edwards looks to have an above average gelding. Copped heat on speed last time out under the lights at the Valley but despite that, he showed an electric turn of foot on the turn and put the race to bed rather quickly. Toughest test to date, but he does look quite an exciting prospect. Barrier is the only niggle.

6 Freehearted (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Darren Weir trained mare who has been up a little while but continues to race really well. Ran over 1200m last Friday night at the Valley where she seemed to have her chance but was game in defeat when third to Castelo. Yet to be tested down the straight, but these Weir horses are just so reliable, especially when deep into a prep.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Hawkshot

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 17 Usain Bowler

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Nothin Like Harry

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 4, 7, 9, 12

Leg Three: 8, 11, 12, 15

Leg Four: 6, 9, 12, 15, 17

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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