Six races will be run and won at Geelong this Thursday for Geelong Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (14:25) Geelong Caravanning Leisurefest (Bm66) 1400m
8 First Chorus (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) on top in what looks an open race. She comes back to 1400m after racing over the mile at Sandown last start. She was wide no cover throughout but kept on and was quite game in defeat behind Blindedbythelight. Form out of that race has been strong and like her back in trip.
12 Bluepinot (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is third up and should just about be at peak fitness. Latest run came over this trip at Sale when on speed, ridden with intent, and tried hard, but couldn’t quite get there when second to Fridge Monster. Maps ideally and should be effective late.
2 Always Hapi (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) has a good track/distance record and maps to do no work. He ran over it last start when off speed and worked home well without threatening when third to Acelum. If the inside gate can be used to advantage, he’s dangerous.
Race 2. (15:00) Geelong Classic 2200m
10 Savisanta (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is a key threat. He ran over 1700m in a Sale maiden last start. He just got too far out of his ground and made up decent headway in a definite pass mark in defeat behid Matsuda. Likely spots them a start but will be strong late.
1 Highvol (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) steps up to 2200m after coming through the Caulfield Guineas where he got back to near last in the run and never got involved. Much better suited at this level and has always given the impression of being a 2000m+ horse so keen to see how he goes.
2 Arcora (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) steps up to 2200m after racing over 1800m in the Super Impose where he had a decent run in transit and seemed to have something to offer but got badly checked and pretty much went around like a barrier trial. If the breaks go his way, he can win.
Race 3. (15:35) Lindsey Smith Spicer T'breds (Bm70) 1700m
5 The Muffin Man (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) each way for me. Shane Jackson trained gelding that resumed at Hamilton where he got off speed and just whacked in the run to the line in a plain return. Maps to setlte closer and do love the Blinkers going on again. Each way play I say.
8 Sigiriya Rock (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) should be better for the first up run, which came over 1400m at Sale. He lobbed into a decent spot in transit just off the speed and tried hard but condition just gave way late. Fitter and up in trip, he commands respect.
6 Breathless Spirit (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is an Archie Alexander trained gelding that resumes. His best form will be over slightly further but 1700m fresh I do like and he looks to have jumped out well for the return so watch betting.
Race 4. (16:10) Geelong Cup 2400m
1 Changingoftheguard (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is a big improver for Kris Lees. He was trucking into the race last start in The Metropolitan but copped bad interference and was eased down in the straight. If he brings his best, he is more than capable of threatening.
5 Whisky On The Hill (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is racing really well. Dare say he shouldn’t be racing here given he should have raced in the Caulfield Cup after being terribly unlucky in the Herbert Power. The race shape is perfect for him because he has change up speed whereas some of these are one paced. Dangerous.
I can’t work out why 4 Torranzino (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is the price he is vs Gilded Water. I thought this guy was unbelievable in the Bart Cummings give the work he did in chasing. He was entitled to knock right up but he kept chipping away and was only run down late by Valiant King. He’s a definite winning chance.
Race 5. (16:45) Rex Gorell Volkswagen Dual Choice (Bm84) 1200m
12 Stoli Bolli (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) gets a great chance to get back into the winners list. He has run down the Flemington straight his past two, the latest seeing him finish behind De Bergerac and was good late albeit did have his chance. Maps perfect here and the depth isn’t as strong. Keen.
6 Persian Spirit (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He won fresh down the Flemington straight before racing there again behind De Bergerac. He was off speed and kept chasing in a good effort in defeat. If within range, he has the finale to win.
14 Kiko (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is one for exotics. Jim Conlan trained mare that ran over 1200m at The Valley last start when off speed and kept chipping away in a bunched finish when close up behind Charcoals. Doubt she wins, but can run top four.
Race 6. (17:20) The Sporting Globe (Bm78) 1500m
11 Jenni The Fox (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) looks really well placed here. She comes through the Stocks when held by Splash Back but she kept on and was far from disgraced in defeat. Back to 78 grade, Shinn on, I think she’ll be ridden like the best horse in the race and take beating,
5 Flying Valley (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since racing in the Feehan when outclassed on paper behind Pride Of Jenni but he more than held his own in defeat. If there is petrol left in the tank, he’s good enough to win.
12 Ambassadorial (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is dangerous if the track is playing up/in. He ran at Hamilton last start when on speed but second up I think condition just gave way. He’ll press forward and if he gets front end control, he’s a threat at odds.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 12 Stoli Bolli
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 8 First Chorus
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 The Muffin Man
Quaddie Tips (Races Three Through To Six):
Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 8, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg Three: 12
Leg Four: 5, 11, 12, 14
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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