22/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Cox Plate day

A bumper ten race card has ben set down for Moonee Valley this Saturday, highlighted by the best race Australia has to offer, the Cox Plate (2040m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Cox Plate 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Cox Plate

1 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now: $2.70) on top in the opener. Team Hayes trained colt that IMO has been the pick from what i’ve seen from jumpouts, winning a couple at Flemington and has seemingly moved like a nice horse. Looks a big lump of a thing but has an engine under the hood. I’m in his corner.

4 Mexico (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Capitalist colt for Michael Freedman that has only had the one trial to get ready, which came at Randwick. Did a bit wrong but balanced up late and wasn’t too bad to the line and through it when third. Hard to get keen in this race based on previous years but in a leading juvenile stable and does get J Mac.

7 Optume (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Team Hayes trained daughter of Pierro. She jumped out a couple of weeks back alongside Arkansaw Kid and was comfortably held late, but did show early speed, which is a big advantage in these early 2YO races. Last bit will test, but she’ll give a sight.

The rain is music to the ears of 4 Ashford Street (Bet Now: $4.50), who is backing up from the Caulfield Sprint last Saturday where he was far from disgraced against the race shape when fourth to Asfoora. The wetter the better for him and a fast run 1000m, he’ll take a power of beating.

5 Streetcar Stranger (Bet Now: $7.50) is a very interesting runner. David Jolly trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since the Oakleigh Plate when down the track and outclassed behind Marabi. His trial effort wasn’t too bad at Morphettville and maps to get the suck run. Just needs luck.

10 Wolflands (Bet Now: $15.00) is a lightly raced four year old that can win. Has been kept on ice since winning the 955m here on Moir Night, and yes, was lucky to win, but right place right time and was too good. Asfoora came out of that to bolt up in the Caulfield Sprint, so that form is A1 for this. Hard to beat.

9 Great Barrier Reef (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Chris Waller trained colt with good talent. He has been kept on ice since the Danehill at Flemington where he was good late without threatening behind Giga Kick, which is right now the best sprint form in the world. Clearly reads well for a seemingly moderate race here, especially with the Waller polish.

2 Sweet Ride (Bet Now: $3.60) has been up a while but continues to be somewhat underestimated. He tried hard in the Roman Consul but couldn’t quite finish it off when presented to win when second to Best Of Bordeaux. Tricky draw, but does bring the strong Sydney form.

1 Sejardan (Bet Now: $6.00) is crying out for a firmer deck. He found a bottomless in the Roman Consul and just couldn’t pick his feet up when down the track behind Best Of Bordeaux, but clearly had excuses. Far from disgraced in the Golden Rose, I am not penning him against these.

3 Willinga Beast (Bet Now: $2.60) can bounce back. McEvoy slaughtered her in the Roman Consul. The track was red hot inside but connections notified a COT, ridden with a sit. Whether that forced the hand of McEvoy, not sure, but the lead was there to be had. Instead, opted for cover and it cost her the win when third to Best Of Bordeaux. She gets her chance to get a Stakes win here.

8 Birdies Galore (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Patrick Payne trained filly that resumes. She was well placed as a two year old, winning her first two career outings before a game second in the Oaklands at Morphettville in the middle of Winter. Stable is starting to fire after a somewhat lean run and her Benalla trial win was very good.

6 Over Shady (Bet Now: $21.00) is in with a shout. Didn’t disgrace herself at Mornington behind Wee Nessy on Grand Final Day before going to a Sale madien where she sat on speed and once clicked up, away she went and was much too good. Has Stakes class ability IMO and can measure up here.

7 Climbing Star (Bet Now: $5.00) rises to the mile from 1200m, which is a query I feel, but she is a filly with good talent and finds a weak race. The debut win at Cranbourne was very sharp, making a mess of them after being smashed late in betting, suggesting she has got an engine under the hood. Gate one, does no work and could be one out of the box against an average bunch.

4 Bonheur (Bet Now: $8.00) is an interesting runner. She comes here several weeks between runs since contesting the Thousand Guineas Prelude where she was coming off a maiden and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Boogie Dancer. Tricky draw, but handles wet ground and has good upside compared to some.

3 Vagrant (Bet Now: $10.00) is a filly for Mitch Freedman that I have time for. Too bad to be true in the Thousand Guineas Prelude before going to the Edward Manifold where she got back to near last in the run and was good late without threatening behind She’s Licketysplit. If they can run on, she’ll take beating against these.

1 Callsign Mav (Bet Now: $8.50) was too bad to be true in the Toorak, and I thought wide no cover wasn’t a big enough excuse for him to fail so badly, but Jamie Mott said post race that the horse got his tongue over the bit. Super tough win in the Rupert Clarke the start prior and this looks his level, plus is suited big time at WFA.

5 My Oberon (Bet Now: $6.00) brings high class UK form to be respected. I thought he was potentially heading towards a Cox Plate but instead runs here. Formerly with William Haggas, he makes his Australian debut for Annabel Neasham and if he brings anything near his best from the UK, he likely wins. Huge market watch.

9 Military Expert (Bet Now: $4.20) will put himself on speed and look the winner for the most part. He was on speed in the Toorak and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off but stayed on quite soundly in defeat when third to Tuvalu. Proven at The Valley, good racing style, he’ll take beating.

1 Berkeley Square (Bet Now: $2.40) should be winning, provided he handles the track. I thought Williams didn’t give him the best of steers in the Caulfield Guineas and should have gone close to winning instead of a close up fourth to Golden Mile. He’s looked a 2000m+ horse since day one, he has the class, runs on the board…he wins surely.

3 Pericles (Bet Now: $4.80) is the threat. Bit of ticker was shown when a debut winner at Kembla Grange. He then went to the Tapp-Craig at Randwick and given the track pattern, his run was absolutely enormous when second to Opal Ridge. Straight to 2040m is the unknown, but on potential, he might just be better than these. Just unsure where he gets to from the draw.

5 Skyphios (Bet Now: $34.00) should be suited up to 2040m. He was thrown in the deep end fresh in the Caulfield Guineas, seemingly as a prep run for the Derby, and I liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Golden Mile. This’ll top him off for next Saturday but should be strong late. First four contender.

Have to butter up and include 1 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $8.50). I think he’s racing really well without much luck, which included the Herbert Power two weeks ago where he was full of running off the pace but couldn’t get clear air at the right stage behind Saracen Knight. Hard fit now, with quality, he commands respect.

6 Persan (Bet Now: $4.80) is working up to a win for the Maher/Eustace camp. He tried his guts out in the Herbert Power a fortnight back and was as brave as ever. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Saracen Knight. He’s getting towards peak fitness and does have class.

8 Serpentine (Bet Now: $20.00) is certainly capable with his best. Forgetful first up run behind High Emocean but he ran a much improved race in the Bart Cummings and was far from disgraced behind Lunar Flare. This stable/these colours are cast, but getting closer to the Melbourne Cup…surely they are going to fire.

All things being equal, 10 Anamoe (Bet Now: $2.40) wins. He is looking for redemption from 12 months ago where you can easily make a case to say he should have won. He has come back better than ever this time in, producing a great finale to win the Might And Power two weeks ago, with upside to come. He has to be the one to beat given he is the bulletproof horse with the right form and the runs on the board.

The only hope I gave for 1 Zaaki (Bet Now: $5.50) was drawing gate one, leading, having the fence…and voila, that is the set up he gets here. Two Melbourne runs this time in, he has sat outside Alligator Blood and tried hard, but wanted to lay in under pressure and hasn’t quite gone on with it. He races best when dominating from the front, which is what he does here, so he is the main threat to Anamoe IMO.

7 Laws Of Indices (Bet Now: $34.00) gets the barrier to do no work and for mine, is a first four threat. His Toorak run was unbelievable given he was back near last in a race dominated by those on speed. He did an amazing job to run second to Tuvalu. Looked to work super here on Tuesday morning, he’ll get the soft run and I think will be strong late.

3 Agreeable (Bet Now: $4.50) for me in the get out. Will Clarken trained mare that is on the back up after producing an electric finale from off the speed to win the Murray Bridge Cup last Friday, which followed a strong effort from the back in the Balaklava Cup. If the inside gate is used to advantage, she’ll take beating.

Good test here for 6 Roots (Bet Now: $3.30), but she is a promising mare for Chris Waller. 2/2 this time in, winning fresh at Warwick Farm before going to Canterbury where she defied the pattern, making a sustained run from off the speed to keep finding the line and really surged the final 50m to win. Think she commands respect.

5 My Whisper (Bet Now: $5.00) will love the rise to 1600m. This mare has had two runs back from a spell, resuming with an okay effort in the Sheraco behind Shades Of Rose. She then went to the Golden Pendant where she got too far back but was good late without threatening behind Nimalee. Third up and hard fit with a rise in trip, I think she’s a big improver.

10 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $4.20) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Her run in the Moir was absolutely enormous, defying the pattern and launched late to just miss out on picking up stablemate Coolangatta, who had the pattern in her corner. So genuine, finds the line, she’s hard to beat.

Contender or pretender time for 5 Paulele (Bet Now: $3.70). If he’s going to be a Group l class animal, he’d want to be winning this. He was good in the Moir and class got him home in an average Schillaci, which can be confirmed with Ingratiating failing to beat a runner home in The Everest. He maps ideally, set for the race…D-Day.

If 13 Best Of Bordeaux (Bet Now: $12.00) brings his absolute best, he can be dangerous, because he did beat Coolangatta in the Golden Slipper and given the big price gap between the pair here, you could easily speck this colt. If he can get across on speed and not spend too many petrol tickets, he’ll make sure they know he’s there.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Anamoe

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Berkeley Square

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Callsign Mav

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 10

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6

Leg Four: 5, 8, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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