Victorian metropolitan racing will return to Caulfield racecourse on Saturday for Underwood Stakes day in which we see a fantastic field of runners despite Atlantic Jewel being the odds on favourite in the race. Outside of the Underwood Stakes there are three other Group races on the day including the Thousand Guineas Prelude and the Naturalism Stakes.
The current track condition at Caulfield is a Slow 6 and there is forecast of light rain around Melbourne for the remainder of today and early tomorrow morning so i feel we will be racing on a Dead or Slow track.
Race One: Pin & Win For Starlight Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Dartook has a very good record over the distance having placed five times from eight starts and has only been unplaced once second up. Craig Williams will give her every chance and the $13 looks great value.
Don’t Back Me: Bec Said No Credit has won her last three races although this looks a tougher task and the increase in weight will make it too tough for her to win on Saturday and i will be betting around her at the odds.
Big Danger: Mybenz hit the line well at Mornington last start over shorter distance and the step up here should suit him beautifully. Likely to go back from the barrier and she will be the horse they will have to hold out late.
Roughie: Twilighting doesn’t have the best record over the distance although this looks a much more winnable race to what she has been racing in lately and she will relish in this class and be tough to beat at $14.
Race Two: Le Pine Funerals Hcp 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Cavallo Nero is coming into this race having gone close in two very good form races. He will need a bit of luck from the barrier but is likely to settle back in the race anyways, he has a good record over the distance and has shown to race well with the cut out of the turf. Currently a $10 chance in betting which looks fantastic value in a race he will be very hard to beat in.
Don’t Back Me: Anise has been racing well lately although she doesn’t have a good record at Caulfield having only placed once from fix tries and im not convinced she will handle the rain affected ground.
Big Danger: Shamal Wind is dropping massively in grade here and is very well weighted especially with the 2kg claim of Jackie Berriman. She has a perfect first up record and if she is as good this preparation as last she will go very close.
Roughie: Canali’s form this preparation doesn’t look that great although you can put a line through his past two runs. He has a very good record at the track and distance having placed three times from four tries. Currently at massive offs of $15 which i would think will shorten before race time.
Race Three: Nine West Plate 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Menage A Charge did it tough last start at Flemington but was still too good and held on in what was a quickly run 1000m race. Will get a good run from barrier 3 and with 54kg on her back she will be very hard to hold out and at $10 she can be backed each way.
Don’t Back Me: Villa Verde showed she had plenty of ability at her first two starts although she was a bit disappointing last preparation. Happy to leave her out at the odds due to barrier 13 and being on the same weights as the colts and geldings.
Big Danger: Whiskey Allround raced down the straight over 1200m last start which not all horses handle and i don’t think he did. Will be better over the 1000m with a turn in which he has a perfect record and $11 on offer looks a good bet in a very winnable race.
Roughie: Il Cavallo didn’t handle the straight track last start and his run before that was very good in a quality race. Will need some luck from barrier 9 but at $10 he looks one of the main chances in the race.
Race Four: The Inglis Bonus Hcp 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Rockford got stuck on the fence last start at Flemington in a race that the winner swooped wide giving him no chance to figure in the finish. Will need some luck from the barrier but Damian Oliver has been riding well since his suspension and with a good run during the race will see him go very close.
Don’t Back Me: Le Mans was well beaten last start and the form from that race hasn’t been franked since so the $6.50 in an open betting race looks pretty poor value.
Big Danger: Resistant will get into the weights well with the 3kg claim and he is coming out of what i think will be the form race. Will be able to settle mid field from barrier 7 and his class will carry him a long way against this field.
Roughie: Surging Wave won at his Australian debut after coming from New Zealand. Despite that race being in much easier company he looks a type who can improve quickly and will be better over this distance.
Race Five: Sportingbet Sprint 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: A Time For Julia hit the line well last start at Flemington when she was well backed. Happy to stick with her after that run and if she can get in from barrier 9 i think she will be very hard to beat at $6.
Don’t Back Me: Octavia was disappointing last start in what was a tough run and i thought they would have gone to the paddock with her after a long preparation but they haven’t and on that note i will be betting around her on Saturday.
Big Danger: Catkins deserves a win having gone close at her only two starts this preparation both of which have gone on to be good form races. Will need luck from the barrier and will have to overcome the big weight but she is a class horse.
Roughie: Our Miss Jones will be returning from a long break but she showed a blistering turn of foot in her win at Moonee Valley and if she has returned as well as she left she will run a massive race first up at double figure odds.
Race Six: R Higgins/w Dalziel Racing Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: British General sat on the speed and wasn’t beaten far on the line in a race which those from the back dominated. He races better second up and has a very good record over the distance. Looks a very winnable race for him and the $10 looks exceptional each way value.
Don’t Back Me: Don’t Get Excited has won his last three starts although this is a much tougher field than he has been facing and im willing to risk him at the odds until he proves himself in this class.
Big Danger: Rhythm To Spare produced a massive win last start when hitting the line well after what was a very slowly run race. During winter he had two very good runs in QLD with good form around Hawkspur which if he can replicate here he will be winning.
Roughie: Soledad loves the cut out of the ground and if Caulfield get’s a lot of rain before race time than he will be one of the horses to beat in this race and at $21 looks a good each way bet or one for the multiples.
Race Seven: Schweppes Thousand Gneas Prel. 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Marianne i thought was very impressive last start when going forward in a quickly run race and was able to stick on to win. Craig Williams has stuck with her all the way through which gives you confidence and i think the $8 on offer will shorten before race time.
Don’t Back Me: Politeness has won her last two starts well but they were both in much lower class races than what she will face on Saturday and im willing to bet around her at the odds until she proves herself in this grade.
Big Danger: Gregers is unproven over the distance although she has to be included here after winning her first two starts this preparation impressively and only failing narrowly down the straight which probably didn’t suit her.
Roughie: Miracle To Me finished off really well last start to win on the line. She looks like she will be better over further and she gets that here and will be right in the finish at double figure odds.
Race Eight: D’urban Naturalism Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Folding Gear was caught wide last start and weakened after a tough run. He has a very good track and distance record have won two of three and running second on the other occasion. Has won three times third up and all stats suggest he will be winning at $15 on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Pakal will start as a pretty short favourite when you take into account the size and evenness of the field. He will need luck from the wide barrier and at $3.80 ill be risking him here.
Big Danger: Moudre put in a massive run first up when he ran some very good horses to within two lengths and if he can replicate that run he would be winning against this field.
Roughie: Tanby didn’t put in the best run first up although his second up record is much better which he is here. He will be better over the further distance and at $51 must be included in your multiples and quaddies.
Race Nine: Hyland Underwood Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Atlantic Jewel is on the drift in betting which only gives punters better value. She is the best horse in Australia racing at the moment and she will be fitter for her track galloper last weekend. Only bad luck will beat her here and Ladbrokes are offering $2.20 for her HERE.
Don’t Back Me: It’s A Dundeel has now come into $8 in betting which is massive unders. yes he is a good horse but Atlantic Jewel beat him fair and square last start and she will do that again here.
Big Danger: Puissance De Lune was once the Cox Plate favourite until Atlantic Jewel returned and has taken that title. Glen Boss went too early on him last start and copped a lot of stick for it so expect a perfect ride for him on Saturday.
Roughie: Sea Moon missed the start last time out which was his first Australian run so we never saw him in a competitive nature in the race. If he can jump well here perhaps we will see why he was so heavily backed to win last start.
Best Bet: Atlantic Jewel
Next Best: Marianne
Best Roughie: Folding Gear
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