For the first time in a long, Sydney will have a race day to challenge Derby Day at Flemington when it comes to equine and race quality. There are nine races set down, including five Group l races, highlighted by the best two year old race in the world, the $3.5 Million Tooheys New Golden Slipper (1200m), where the Gai Waterhouse trained Vancouver dominates betting. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40pm) : TAB Birthday Card Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looking for some value and I think there is some of that thanks to Shamalia (Best Odds: $4.20). She had four runs during the Spring, starting off in the Sheraco Stakes (1200m) where she was backed strongly to beat Catkins, but she raced terribly. She was then freshened up and ran a strong third to Deep Field in the Lightning Handicap (1000m), then winning a mares race at the Valley before failing in the Starlight Stakes (1100m) behind Our Boy Malachi. Forget Kencella winning the barrier trial, because that’s all he does. I was really impressed by the way this mare attacked the line late under a really good hold. This time last year she beat a Group l horse in Sidestep. She could well be an Autumn horse, and I am prepared to take a gamble on her each way.
Big Danger: Fine Bubbles (Best Odds: $7.00) looked to travel very kindly in the run when resuming in the Weona Girl Handicap (1200m), and let down strongly at the 300m mark, but just got tired late and ran eighth to Griante, beaten just under three lengths. She should improve big time off that outing, gets weight relief, goes well second up and the last time she ran at Rosehill, she was narrowly beaten by stablemate Hera, who ran a half length fifth in the Coolmore Classic last week. Good enough to be really competitive here.
Roughie: I was quite keen on All Salsa (Best Odds: $41.00) first up at Canterbury but she just wasn’t suited due to the on pace bias that afternoon. She then went to the Guy Walter Stakes (1400m) and was outclassed behind Danesiri, Cosmic Endeavour and co. Drops significantly in grade now, draws well, gets a firm track and is on the minimum. Expecting her to improve big time because her trial prior to the first up run was outstanding.
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Race Two (1:15pm) : Hertz Epona Stakes 1900m: Form Guide
Back Me: Rising Romance (Best Odds: $1.85) looks the good thing on the program. Her two runs back from her second in the Caulfield Cup have been fantastic, storming home from the back to win first up over 1500m, despite looking big in condition, before starting $1.30 at Group l level at Ellerslie over 2000m and just got out bobbed up a Sakhee’s Soldier. Third up here looks perfect, only taking on mares, plus she just looks so well in at the weights. It’ll be a big shock if she gets rolled.
Big Danger: Telepathic (Best Odds: $5.50) was backed as if unbeatable in the Aspiration Quality (1600m), and when she peeled out 300m from home she looked the winner, but she didn’t go on with it and whacked away for fourth. Up to 2000m should suit, and perhaps the flat run for the prep is out of the system, and if you go back to Boxing Day 2013 in the Eight Carat Classic (1600m) at Ellerslie, she was a length off Rising Romance, and she meets that mare 5kg better off here, so she does have upset claims.
Roughie: Intimate Moment (Best Odds: $16.00) scored somewhat of an upset win in this race last year and she appears on target after her strong third in the Aspiration, getting a long way back in the run before peeling wide and finding the line with real purpose. Doubt she’ll beat Rising Romance, but she’ll be very competitive.
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Race Three (1:50pm) : The Sebring 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Peeping (Best Odds: $5.00) on top for me. She bolted in first up at Randwick before going to the Fireball Stakes (1100m), where she attempted to lead all the way, and beat all bar the impressive Nayeli. That run was outstanding, because she did scoot along in front (first 500m in 28.9), and given that was her first run at Stakes level, she was great in defeat. She’ll be up near the speed again, she’ll be cherry ripe fitness wise and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Princefamous (Best Odds: $4.80) is three from three, and gee there was alot to like about his win at Warwick Farm last time out where he sat on speed leading, at a decent tempo, then just showed an electric turn of foot when asked by Bowman in the straight to put his rivals away with ease. There is alot to like about him, and Team Snowden know when and where to test their runners at a higher level.
Roughie: Mr Bogart (Best Odds: $12.00) was given a beaut ride by Bowman last time out in the Canberra Guineas (1400m), and he looked home at the top of the straight, but the leader kicked back very strongly and outgunned him late. Back to 1200m is ideal, draws well and Bowman sticks.
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Race Four (2:30pm) : Ranvet Stakes 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks pretty straight forward here- Contributer (Best Odds: $2.50) wins. Produced a brilliant turn of foot to win first up in the Apollo Stakes (1400m) at Randwick, then went to the Group l Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) at Warwick Farm and was ridden more closer than usual yet still proved much too good. He will only improve with the added fitness and rise to 2000m. Just looks the winner.
Big Danger: Silent Achiever (Best Odds: $6.50) is ticking over beautifully this Autumn, and her two runs behind Contributer have been excellent. The key for her is getting back to Rosehill, and she did score a brilliant win in this race last year. Looks to be going much better this time around, and the field she beat in 2014 probably had more depth than what she faces here, so while I think Contributer will win, it wouldn’t shock me if Silent Achiever knocked him off.
Roughie: The rise to 2000m should also suit the classy gelding He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $5.00). He was just fair first up in the Apollo, then went to the Chipping Norton and did look the winner on the turn, but his fitness just gave way late. Tuned up for this with a quiet trial last Friday at Warwick Farm, and his record both at Rosehill and at 2000m is excellent. Hard to beat.
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Race Five (3:10pm): Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen on Sweynesse (Best Odds: $3.10). He was a touch unlucky in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) behind Hallowed Crown given that it probably wasn’t the best ride from McDonald when he got stuck in a pocket and was forced back to the inside, which wasn’t the best place to be. His last 2000m run saw him finish two lengths off Adelaide in the Cox Plate, and he looks ready to rumble over 2000m now. Beautifully placed.
Big Danger: Hallowed Crown (Best Odds: $2.90) might not be the best horse in the race IMO, but the one trait I love about him is that he is a winner, and the great horses in recent times just knew where the winning post is, and this bloke does exactly that, and that was evident in the Randwick Guineas. He looked beaten 300m out, but he just kept finding and surged past his rivals to win impressively. 2000m is the query, but he is all class and heart.
Roughie: The two kiwi runners are the interesting runners. In terms of brilliance, Volkstok’n’barrell (Best Odds: $6.00) is the pick because he is just so raw and he hasn’t quite fully grasped the racing game. Looked to win the NZ Derby last time out but just couldn’t put Mongolian Khan away and that runner eventually kicked back strongly to win. The 2000m will suit Volkstok’n’barrell better, and he can definitely threaten here.
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Race Six (3:50pm): Canadian Club Galaxy 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Cracking edition of this race. I am going to put Avoid Lightning (Best Odds: $12.00) on top. She resumed in the Millie Fox Stakes (1300m) and ran third to subsequent Group l placegetter Catkins, and I think Avoid Lightning, due to circumstances out of control of Tim Clark, was ridden a touch too close to the speed, and she had nothing left for the final 150m, which is generally her best part of a race. Trial prior was outstanding, great second up record, great 1100m record and loves Rosehill. She ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: Given her great record at Group l level without winning, Sweet Idea (Best Odds: $13.00) does look the weighted horse to win. She was excellent during the Spring, winning the Tristarc Stakes (1400m) at Group ll level with strong Group l performances behind Dissident, Trust In A Gust and Bonaria sandwiched in between. First trial leading up to her return to racing was good, while the second one was just okay, but with the Waterhouse ‘Bone and Muscle’, she’ll be primed for a Group l resumption.
Roughie: Knoydart (Best Odds: $11.00) was having his first run since the Stradbroke last year when running on strongly late to run fourth to Miracles Of Life in the Challenge Stakes (1000m). He was going to go past Rubick near the line, but given it was his first run in nine months, and the hot speed in front, he just got a stitch late. Exceptional second up stats, as well as great records at the track and at 1100m, and he will get the hot speed in front again, so he is a serious prospect.
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Race Seven (4:30pm) : Tooheys New Golden Slipper 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Yours truly is sitting pretty at $15 and $6 for this race with Vancouver (Best Odds: $3.10), and I dare say I won’t be standing too far away from the queue, because he just looks so much better than these. The doubters were heavy on him after his first barrier trial this time in, but the blinkers went on and he was outstanding in the Canonbury Stakes (1100m), then trialled brilliantly before producing one of the best Slipper lead up wins in recent history, spanking his rivals in the Todman Stakes (1200m). I honestly think he is a $2 chance, so what you’re getting at the moment looks overs.
Big Danger: The other dominant Slipper lead up winner was Exosphere (Best Odds: $4.20), who produced a stunning turn of foot to win the Skyline Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm, coming from last on the turn and picking up his rivals in a couple of strides. He did race against inferior opposition to that of the Todman runners Vancouver smashed up, but the ability is there with Exosphere, and like Vancouver, he is versatile and will be very strong at the end of 1200m.
Roughie: Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $18.00) ran an absolute beauty in the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) when a close up third to Pride Of Dubai after getting back and held up at various stages in the race. She is the one with upside and is in the right stable. Only query is that maiden gallopers don’t win Slippers. Lone horse to do break their maiden in the great race was Sweet Embrace in 1967.
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Race Eight (5:10pm) : George Ryder Stakes 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: There doesn’t seem to be much early speed here, so on that reason, I will go with Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $5.50). She probably wasn’t the best horse in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m), but clearly the best ride won her the race, and it was indeed a beaut steer from McDonald, who took advantage of her race fitness to kick up hard and lead, control the tempo and find plenty when challenged. She takes on a pretty similar field here, I expect her to lead again, and I expect her to prove very hard to run down again.
Big Danger: Shooting To Win (Best Odds: $5.00) is a star, and has been excellent in two runs back from a break. He looked in need of the run when a close up fourth in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) before going to the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and attempting to lead all the way but was grabbed late when third to Hallowed Crown, who was his victor in the Hobartville also. Shooting To Win is a horse that needs racing, and I think he is best ridden with cover and a sit, and tying that in with the fact he gets a weight pull here, he will be a definite threat.
Roughie: Criterion (Best Odds: $10.00) was clearly the best of the beaten brigade in the Canterbury Stakes when third to Cosmic Endeavour after he settled back near the inside before railing up strongly in the straight and working home hard late to be beaten just under two lengths. He used to be trained here, and he does have a fabulous record here, as well as racing second up. I’d love to include Kermadec, because I thought he would have been a good thing in the Rosehill Guineas, but I want to see him rather than back him here. Heading towards the Doncaster, so I want to see him run on at the end.
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Race Nine (5:50pm) : The Longest Ride N.E. Manion Cup 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for the Wellington Cup winner Maygrove (Best Odds: $3.00), who made his Australian debut in the Randwick City Stakes (2000m) when running fourth to Phrases. That was Maygroves first run since the Wellington Cup in January, and the speed at Randwick was hot, so he did a good job under the circumstances. They won’t go that crazy here, up to 2400m suits, fitter…ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Bagman (Best Odds: $5.00) will appreciate a drop in grade after racing at WFA in all three runs this time in against the likes of Weary, Dissident and Mourinho. He can be a very frustrating galloper to follow, in fact he hasn’t won a race for Chris Waller in 13 runs. That’s the query, but take out Maygrove, and it is a very ordinary race.
Roughie: Tremec (Best Odds: $16.00) wasn’t too bad in the Randwick City Stakes behind Phrases, making up ground from the back. He has a surprisingly solid winning strike rate, and this is the sort of race where he could bob up. Don’t think he can win, but one to include in exotics perhaps at massive odds.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Vancouver
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Rising Romance
VALUE: Race One Number 7 Shamalia
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 2, 10, 11, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 8
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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