It won’t be vintage, but a crack bunch of sprinters, headlined by Deep Field and Lankan Rupee, will do battle for Group l glory in the $500,000 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m). A couple of $150,000 Group lll events support the program; The CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) and the Vanity (1400m).
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Race One (12:55pm) : Talindert Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Take Pride (Best Odds: $14.00) won her first two starts in really impressive fashion before stepping up to the Blue Diamond Preview and simply didn’t handle the Sandown track when 12th to Fontiton. She was a very good winner down the straight prior, and she strikes a very winnable race, plus she looked awesome in a recent Tatura trial.
Big Danger: Big, big watch on the Hawkes debutant Vicious (Best Odds: $4.20). Well bred son of Nicconi who looked excellent in a recent jump out here, working home very strongly from the back and appearing to handle the straight track well. He is nominated for the Sires Produce during The Championships, so the stable must have a high opinion of him.
Roughie: Brooklyn (Best Odds: $10.00) wasn’t far off Thurlow first up in the Chairmans at Sandown, sitting just off the speed and grinding away strongly in the run home to be beaten just over half a length. That horse has since looked impressive at the jump outs, so the form looks strong for Brooklyn, and he is trained here.
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Race Two (1:30pm) : Hilton Nicholas Handicap (90) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Turnitaround (Best Odds: $4.40) on top. He can be hard to trust as a punter, but you have to love the way he is fighting hard despite not quite getting the job done. His last start was over 1720m here when pipped right on the peg by River’s Lane, who ran well last weekend at Caulfield so the form has been franked to an extent and I think this horse is definitely looking for 2000m.
Big Danger: Tooleybuc Kid (Best Odds: $4.80) ran pretty well last time out here when third to Averau, sitting just off the speed and fighting on pretty well. He is yet to win at Flemington which is the query, but he is racing very well at the moment and strikes a winnable race.
Roughie: Grand campaigner Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $19.00) is nearing another win based on his closing second to Taiyoo last time out at Sandown, making up good ground late but was no match for the winner. He drops in class yet remains at the same weight after the claim for Mick Dee, so he really does look well placed here.
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Race Three (2:07pm) : The Vanity 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I was very impressed by the win of Wawail (Best Odds: $2.30) first up down the straight. I made her an immediate blacbooker because she didn’t look comfortable at all but her class was just far too good for her rivals and she won with a fair bit of ease on the line. She just got home over this distance during the Spring, but she looks to be a far better filly now, plus she has the fitness edge on her main rivals.
Big Danger: The Oaks winner Set Square (Best Odds: $8.50) returns. Recent history tells you that horses that run well in the Oaks tend to run very well in The Vanity. 1400m is short of her best, but is clearly the class horse in the field and worked to the line pretty well in her latest jump out behind Nordic Empire, who has been one of the form jump out/trial horses this Autumn. She should be hard to beat.
Roughie: Prepared to forgive Maastricht (Best Odds: $5.00) for her first up failure at Canterbury behind Meursault, who will go around as a leading contender in the Hobartville. Maastricht just got too far back in a slowly run race, plus I don’t think the tight turning Canterbury track suited. She is much better than that and returns to Melbourne, where she was very impressive in the Spring.
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Race Four (2:40pm) : Indian Summer Handicap (90) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hot race for the fillies and mares. Tawteen (Best Odds: $3.30) is a sharp sprinting filly for the in-form Hayes/Dabernig stable who led all the way to win a heat of the 55 second challenge, beating the older horses in good style. She is a noted speedster, but given she has to carry 57.5kg here, she may elect to take a sit on Sweet Emily. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Antarctic Missile (Best Odds: $3.90) was a very impressive winner over this track/distance on January 17, bolting in by just under three lengths before going to Sandown and beating all bar Runway Star, who had the drop from the back and had the last say. She meets Runway Star 3kg better off for a narrow loss, plus looks much better suited down the straight.
Roughie: Day After Tomorrow (Best Odds: $31.00) is racing really well for Heath Conners at the moment, sitting on speed to get the win two back, then sat wide throughout and just missed out on picking up Sylvan Power, who ran well last night at the Valley. Nikita Beriman is riding in fabulous form at the moment, and she could sneak a place with the right trip.
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Race Five (3:15pm) : Lawn Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m very keen to see Saluter (Best Odds: $10.00) run here. He is having his first run for the Freedmans after formerly being with Jason McLachlan on the Sunny Coast. He last ran in the Magic Millions Cup when seventh to Spurtonic. Reason I am putting him on top is his jump out last Friday here. He just bolted in, albeit narrowly, but he was under triple wraps from the rider and ran good time. Ollie booked builds up my confidence more, and if he brings that effort from the Jump Out here, he’ll take an absolute power of beating. Very tempted to make him the best bet on the card.
Big Danger: Refulgent (Best Odds: $4.50) was enormous in defeat when resuming under the Moonee Valley lights, coming from last and out very wide to run third to Barcode. He is unbeaten in two runs at Flemington and gets a lovely weight drop. Drawn wide, but should be hard to beat with some luck.
Roughie: Whistle Baby (Best Odds: $14.00) put behind her a frustrating run of outs with a narrow win against the mares at Sandown. Form has been franked with the third placegetter winning during the week. She gets back to her home track, and despite taking on the boys, her confidence is high and she is a chance.
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Race Six (3:55pm) : CS Hayes Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Stratum Star (Best Odds: $5.00) on top for me. He has that Trust In A Gust feel about him. He isn’t the best three year old going around, but gee he has to be right up there in terms of toughness. He was very good I thought first up at Sandown when second to Profit Share, beaten two lengths. His overall record is very good and the last time he ran here was during Cup Week when a narrow second to Kermadec in the Carbine Club. Excellent form for this and should take some beating.
Big Danger: Wandjina (Best Odds: $9.00) is the interesting runner here for Gai Waterhouse. He hasn’t raced since finishing a brave tenth in the Cox Plate to Adelaide after doing a mountain of work on speed. His recent jump outs have been encouraging and does have the class factor on his side. Knockout hope at odds.
Roughie: Merion (Best Odds: $13.00) ran third to Profit Share at Sandown and his run was probably the best of the beaten brigade considering he pulled his head off outside the speed yet stuck on very well for third. He won second up over this track/distance during the Spring and is unbeaten at Flemington. Looks beautifully placed here.
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Race Seven (4:35pm) : Black Caviar Lightning 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: From what I have seen at the jump outs, I am going with Deep Field (Best Odds: $2.25). His efforts in jump outs here have been outstanding, in particular his effort last Friday when he led all the way down the straight and won by a space, running blistering time under triple wraps from Dwayne Dunn. The big positive was that he handled the course beautifully compared to Cup Week when he looked lost despite winning. He has to take this step to make sure he is a world class sprinter, and I am very confident he can.
Big Danger: Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $2.60) looks the obvious threat. I haven’t been as bullish as some about the way he has come back. I thought his jump outs and trials were good without being great, but gee he looked awesome in a gallop last weekend at Caulfield. That little piece of work should clean him out beautifully for this, and he is a Group l winner on the track.
Roughie: Brazen Beau (Best Odds: $6.50) probably hasn’t looked as good as the two above in trials/jump outs, but he has recent Group l winning form over this course thanks to a stunning win in the Coolmore Stud. He is drawn to get a gun sit off Fab Fevola, so he is a definite threat for mine purely because he’ll get the right run.
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Race Eight (5:15pm) : tab.com.au Trophy (96) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hard Stride (Best Odds: $7.00) is another one I’ve blackbooked from the Flemington Jump Outs last week. He won his particular jump out in good style, jumping cleanly and leading throughout to win and run good time. He was outclassed in the Australia Stakes behind Mourinho, but this looks his race if he is to step back up to Stakes company.
Big Danger: Magnus Reign (Best Odds: $7.50) put up a big effort to win over this track/distance last time out, pulling hard in the run yet still sprinted sharply between runners and grabbed Tycoon Tara right on the peg. That mare went on to win a Stakes race last Saturday, so I think that’s the right form race and he does drop in weight.
Roughie: Floatmyboat (Best Odds: $9.00) worked home very strongly to run third to Magnus Reign and Tycoon Tara where he was enormous given he got a long way back. He was known as 1400-1600m horse, but he is starting to really like the straight six course. Only query is the inside gate, but Ollie sticks.
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Race Nine (5:50pm) : #Flemington Handicap (84) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen on Berrimilla (Best Odds: $11.00) to get the job done. She ran last time out at Sandown and looked most unlucky when second to Quicksilver Lass, beaten a neck after getting held up on a couple of occasions in the straight and being forced to change course. She is trained here, Ollie sticks and is drawn near her main rival.
Big Danger: That main rival is Inishowen (Best Odds: $4.60), who was a very impressive 2000m winner here on January 31. What made it impressive was the fact she cut back to the worst part of the track near the inside yet still finished best. She was due to run in a Stakes race last weekend but was scratched. This looks more suitable.
Roughie: Winston Drive (Best Odds: $4.60) is finding it very hard to win, but she is racing very well nonetheless. Her last run came over 1420m here on January 31 when narrowly pipped by the in form mare Choose. Up to 1600m suits, draws well and remains on the limit weight for Michelle Payne, who rides the mare better than anyone else.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Deep Field
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Saluter
VALUE: Race Nine Number 4 Berrimilla
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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