The Cox Plate Carnival kicks off on Friday night with a cracking eight race card, highlighted by the grey champ Chautauqua looking to bounce back in the Manikato Stakes (1200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Cox Plate day TIPS: View our Cox Plate Day TIPS HERE
Race One (18:30) : Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 6 Biased Witness (Bet Now: $7.00) resumes here for Robert Smerdon where he dodged the Spring targets after a promising opening to his career in the Autumn, which ended with a fourth in the Anzac Day Stakes at Flemington behind Throssell in a race where the form has been very good out of it. Jump outs have been quite encouraging and I think he has the class and quality to beat these.
Big Danger: 4 Showpero (Bet Now: $3.60) is a classy filly that resumes for the David Jolly yard. She hasn’t raced since in the Lightning (1050m) at Morphettville when running a close up third to Viddora. That form is outstanding and go back to her debut, the third horse has since won several races. She ticks alot boxes.
Roughie: 2 Conchita (Bet Now: $7.50) trialled very well prior to resuming in the Thoroughbred Club on Guineas Day where she sat on a genuine speed and just tired late when three lengths away from Hear The Chant. Draw makes it tricky, but stable wouldn’t persist if they didn’t think she could measure up.
Trifecta Tips: 4,6,8,10/4,6,8,10/1,2,4,6,8,10
Race Two (19:00) : Strathmore Community Bank Country Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Mihany (Bet Now: $3.70) looks close to a good thing here and I find it odd how he qualifies for the Country Cup. That aside, his form this time in has been outstanding. He last ran over 1700m at Caulfield where he led and gave a really good kick but was nailed late by Royal Rapture, who ran a mighty race in the Toorak. That form should see Mihany winning here.
Big Danger: 9 Hell On Earth (Bet Now: $9.00) had been known as a bit of a milk drinker, but whatever Shaw Mathrick has done in recent times, it’s working. He proved too good for them two back at Kilmore before going to Wangaratta where he just absolutely spanked them and won like Black Caviar. Never raced better and he has to be strongly considered here as an upset prospect.
Roughie: 7 Nisos (Bet Now: $51.00) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming over the mile at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day but I thought he ran a much better race than what the odds suggested, making up ground late behind Plot The Course. I think he is looking for further, but he’ll be strong late and has upside.
Trifecta Tips: 1/2,3,7,9/2,3,7,9
Race Three (19:30) : Chandler Macleod Handicap 2040m:
Back Me: 7 Nozomi (Bet Now: $4.20) had good market support late when racing over 1800m at Caulfield and aided by a beaut on speed steer from Dylan Dunn, the five year old got the job done, albeit narrowly. The runner up ran a cracker in the Moe Cup last week, so that form has held up, and up to 2040m is a big tick.
Big Danger: 8 Lord Durante (Bet Now: $7.50) has been up a long time this prep and hasn’t had a win which is a bit of a worry although this looks a very winnable race for him on his last start which has proven to be a good form race.
Roughie: 3 Nevis (Bet Now: $5.00) has been given a little freshen up since racing in the Gold Nugget (1700m) at Caulfield where he attempted to lead all the way and just tired late when fifth to Freshwater Storm. No leader won that day, so his effort was more than commendable, and I think up in trip will really suit this Team Williams runner.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 3,5,7,8
Race Four (20:00) : LF Sign Group Handicap 2040m:
Back Me: Keen here on the Darren Weir trained 7 Powderworks (Bet Now: $7.50). I thought her run in the Pinker Pinker Plate (2080m) at Cranbourne was massive given she was back in the ruck and had to come widest in a slowly run race. She is low flying at the moment and will take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 1 Gabella (Bet Now: $5.50) ran in the Ladies Day Vase (1600m) at Caulfield last Wednesday where she got back in the ruck and closed the race off okay late in the piece behind impressive winner Euro Angel. Back up to 2000m is perfect for her and she has a touch of class and quality about her.
Roughie: 8 Arianne (Bet Now: $34.00) also comes through the Pinker Pinker where she had a charmed run behind the tempo but the slowness of said tempo was completely against her. I think she will be suited around here and is worth an each way ticket.
Trifecta Tips: 1,7/1,7/1,2,3,6,7,11
Race Five (20:30) : Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 3 (84) 955m:
Back Me: 7 Rock ‘N’ Gold (Bet Now: $6.00) could not have been impressive when winning at the Valley fresh, sitting off the speed before peeling clear and just savaging the line under hands and heels to win impressively and with plenty in reserve. Confident he can measure up in a race with really good depth.
Big Danger: 5 Golden Spin (Bet Now: $2.40) hasn’t raced in eight months but he showed a ton of ability last preparation. His run in the Manfred Stakes was very good and that form has stacked up throughout the Autumn and Spring so far. His best will be over a bit further but on class he will be hard to beat.
Roughie: 2 Gallant Harmony (Bet Now: $9.50) resumed in a heat of this series on September 30 where he got back in the run and closed off hard late to run a close up third to Gun Case. Should improve off that, and he draws to get a nice sit off a brutal tempo and ambush late.
Trifecta Tips: 5,7/2,5,7/2,5,7
Race Six (21:00) : Mitchelton Wines Handicap (90) 1500m:
Back Me: 3 Rageese (Bet Now: $1.80) comes through the Weekend Hussler at Caulfield in what looked a very strong and I thought his effort was very good. He got a long way back in the run in a race where those on speed were advantaged yet he still made up really good ground. He is loving life under Darren Weir and up to 1500m down in grade is ideal.
Big Danger: The race has really fallen away now with scratchings, so 11 Snake Charmer (Bet Now: $4.80) does come into contention. She has been impressive in recent starts back home in SA, winning two races on the trot in the space of seven days, the latest coming over 1500m at Morphettville a tick under a fortnight back. On the minimum and should get a sweet trip from the gate.
Roughie: Bit surprised there was double figures on offer for 2 Sistine Demon (Bet Now: $9.50). He did nothing in two runs back from a spell before going to the Weekend Hussler where he led at a strong tempo and fought on well to run third to Chetwood. He has a very good record at the Valley and looks the sole speed here.
Trifecta Tips: 3/2,8,11/2,8,11
Race Seven (21:30) : William Hill Manikato Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Chautauqua (Bet Now: $2.70) looks close to a good thing here IMO. I am happy to forgive him for his failure in the Moir (1000m) here first up. We now know that 1000m isn’t his go anymore because he just couldn’t match it with Extreme Choice sprint wise and was gone on the turn, but he picked up and his final 75m and through the line was outstanding. The barrier is interesting. My theory is that Dunn punches up to hold the back of Buffering, then shove into the clear before the turn…race over.
Big Danger: Robert Heathcoate admitted after the Moir that he had gone too soft on 1 Buffering (Bet Now: $10.00) in preparation for the race and that was evident as he weakened late behind Extreme Choice. For a high class sprint race, I think he leads these comfortably, and we know if you give this horse a cheap furlong, he’ll make you pay. The only threat to Chautauqua.
Roughie: Had 6 The Quarterback (Bet Now: $15.00) drawn a decent barrier, I’d be warmer towards his winning chances, but despite drawing wide, I think he can figure in the finish here. He resumed in the Gilgai (1200m) and gee he was very impressive, darting up nearer the inside and careering away late to score such a sharp victory. He has a lethal finish on him and if they do go mad in front, look out for him.
Trifecta Tips: 2/1,4,5,6,8/1,4,5,6,8
Race Eight (22:00) : Yulong Park Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Sir Bacchus… (Bet Now: $2.50) well dear me. If you backed the horse last time out here…I think you’d rather watch creepy clowning. It was a horror show to watch and really, he should have absolutely bolted in. Meets a really good field here, but I think he just needs normal luck to beat these.
Big Danger: 3 It Is Written (Bet Now: $16.00) resumed in a 55 Second Challenge Heat at the Valley where he got back in the run before closing off hard late to run a close up fourth to Gun Case. He was due to run on Cranbourne Cup Day but that meeting was called off, so whatever he does here, I think he will improve on, but he is a track specialist.
Roughie: 8 Taddei Tondo (Bet Now: $16.00) comes here after dumping Pat Moloney after the start on Blue Saphire Day at Caulfield. The run prior came in the race Sir Bacchus contested where he was out wide and had all the momentum yet was swamped by Fast Cash late. Draws a soft gate and will be around the mark I think with luck in running.
Trifecta Tips: 11/2,3,6,8/2,3,6,8
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Mihany
VALUE: Race Five Number 6 Runson
Have Your Say: Have a tip for Manikato Stakes night? – Leave a comment below.
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 8, 11
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